FULL UFC Vegas 85
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Thomas Petersen vs Jamal Pogues
I don’t know how anyone could have a confident read in this fight. Petersen is an interesting prospect with his wrestling background, but at that price are you sure he can go 3 rounds with the 265 pound Jamal Pogues? Pogues is far from a world beater, but he has gone 3 rounds a few times at this level. I just can’t find any reason to put money on this fight. Avoid.
MarQuel Mederos vs Landon Quinones
I like Mederos here at this price. He looks like a good athlete, dangerous. And I do not believe Quinones is UFC level, I would not be surprised if this fight is a wash. However, we do not have a lot of evidence Mederos is any good. Need to be careful backing inexperienced fighters, so just going with the ML and 2nd line in the PRP. He will be a key addition to a profitable night, but it won’t make or break me.
Luana Carolina vs Julija Stoliarenko
Another one where I can’t find any good reason to bet. No need. Avoid.
Jeongyeong Lee vs Blake Bilder.
I like Lee at these prices. We don’t know tons about him, so just like the previous fight we need to be careful. Like Lee’s athleticism and his well rounded game.
Themba Gorimbo vs Pete Rodriguez
Both of these guys are wild cards. Gorimbo can be a bit sloppy, but he is strong, and is willing to take the fight anywhere he can to win. Rodriguez carries a lot of power, and Gorimbo will get hit. I see why people are playing the dog here. But both these guys are hard to trust. Avoid. And happy to.
Azat Maksum vs Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson has had a tough go in the UFC. He’s been matched up with some low key killers and his record is not quite an accurate indication of his ability. However, I unfortunately think this will be another example of a tough matchup for him. Johnson has been taken down 31 times in his 6 UFC fight. He has faced some of the toughest chain wrestlers in the division, but still. He can be taken down, frequently. And Azat will be another guy looking for that takedown, and he is no slouch on the feet. Tyson Nam was a low key tough first UFC fight for Azat. Nam has some clean boxing and solid takedown defence, and Azat still won that. He comes in with a little more experience, good momentum and a clear path to victory. He will be one of my guys in the top line. Big bet!
Molly Mccann vs Diana Belbita
I am a big believer in betting on what has happened in the past. The fight is a rematch? I will often bet on whoever won the last one. There is good reason to do that again here. Diana has mentioned the “R” word recently, and she got 10-7’d the last time she fought the Meatball (no seriously, go look. may have been because of a fence grab, but still). But I am having a hard time believing too much in Molly, especially at these prices. I am throwing her late in the RPP, and adding her to a small hedge parlay, but if she is a broken fighter it won’t hurt me too bad. She can just help add some asymmetrical returns on my higher conviction plays if she is able to beat someone she beat before, not unreasonable.
Gilbert Urbina vs Charles Radtke
Urbina should be the better fighter here. He is much bigger. He has better experience. He has more tools. He is more dangerous. But there is a grind factor here that worries me. Urbina has more tools, but his UFC win list is small. And if he can’t put Radtke away I worry he fades, like he has before. So similar to the Molly fight, if the bigger, more dangerous and experienced fighter can take out an inexperienced UFC fighter, he can add some asymmetry to my night. Also have a small bet on ITD.
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Makhmud Muradov
This is an interesting one. Khizriev has the record and the skills of a fighter who will rack up wins in the UFC, and Muradov looks like a middle of the road UFC middleweight. But there is a big gap on the feet here, and a big gap in their recent activity. Muradov is a big middleweight and could keep Khizriev off him and win rounds on the feet. With all that said, I do think it is more likely Khizriev is able to win at least two rounds in that small cage with his relentless wrestling. Another fight where it is not a main play, but can help me have a good night.
Viviane Araujo vs Natalia Silva
This is a pretty high confidence pick and high conviction play. I have been a big Natalia Silva fan since she entered the UFC. She looks like the real deal. Explosive athlete and a well rounded game. It is hard to imagine Viviane will have many ways to win this fight. Silva will be too quick on the feet, and there is little to no chance Viviane will have the wrestling to take Silva down. Good top line piece, feel she helps add +EV to the play. May regret not betting ML out right though.
Randy Brown vs Muslim Salikhov
I like Randy Brown, but I don’t love him at these prices. Salikov is on a slide and I have no idea how old he actually is, but I do think he presents an tough style matchup for Randy Brown. Salikov will be kicking his legs, and will be strong in the clinch. But Brown is at a much better place in his career, and he could be too fast and strong for Salikhov. I could see Randy’s hands being too quick, and if he can wrap his hands around Salikhov, he could land some emphatic takedowns. I’ll have .35u on Randy Brown as the last additions to some parlays, but thats is it.
Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober
Overall, I do think Renato is the better fighter. He has more tools, is more well rounded and has fought at a higher level. But I worry that the wrestling negates Renato’s advantage on the ground and it becomes a kickboxing match where Dober’s strengths will show. But still, I do think Renato can be dangerous enough on the feet and he can find a way to get it to the ground at some point in the fight. Adding him late as well to some parlays.
Roman Dolidze vs Nassourdine Imavov
Alright, the main event. And I picking the dog in this one! I like Roman at these prices. I see Roman being too physical and utilizes his grappling to win some rounds and put Imavov in bad spots. Imavov is well rounded and he’s found different ways to win fights in the UFC against some solid fighters. But I think he will be on the defensive against the strong grappler in this one. I’ll be taking Roman with the ML and also adding some additional juice with the ITD and then the sub.
Good luck, degenerates!