FULL UFC Vegas 80
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Small slate of bets, total unit count is right under 11.
Dawson and Dobber are the top line of the PRP this week. It is a conservative top line, and conservative PRP overall this week.
RPR top line
Dobber is better than Glenn at what Glenn does best, and even though Dobber can be up and down, he is still a fighter trending upwards, and overall Dobber is the much higher level fighter. Glenn looked bad his last time out against a borderline UFC fighter. Glenn’s last win was more than 2 years ago, backing him here seems next to impossible, so adding Dobber to the top line is easy.
Dawson may hit a ceiling at some point, but Green will be in tough here against Dawsons relentless grappling in the small cage. Green is well rounded and has some solid wrestling, but Dawson has outwrestled much better grapplers than Green. Green is getting old, and Dawson has looked better each time he makes the walk. Another easy decision to add to the top line of a PRP.
PRP 2nd line
Did something unusual here adding 3 fights to the 2nd line. There just isn’t anyone I feel overly confident in to add the units into the PRP.
Pyfer is the obvious juice to add here, but there is just too much unknown about him to be overly confident and add the usual unit allocation in the 2nd line. Razak is a gamer, and he is dangerous. He can take you out early, but he has shown an ability to wrestle and grind late, even though he is pretty classic example of a front runner. I favour Pyfer here, but not at the implied win probability he is being assigned. Pyfer looks like someone who may be for real, but we just don’t know yet, this is a bigger test than the line suggest.
Karolina is one of the more interesting cases as of late, she looked like she had fallen off and was ready to be done, but now she is on a tear! She is fighting lower level competition, but she is capable everywhere the fight goes. Diana looked solid in her last fight, but she beat a fighter who has one close win in the UFC. I expect Karolina to be better everywhere the fight goes. Good value on this line. Playing ML as well.
Rare case of putting plus money this high in the PRP. But this line seems way off to me, Lins has looked great since coming back and moving down. He will be the more technical, disciplined fighter. That should show in their striking, and Ion may take him down, but it is unlikely he can keep him down.
Rest of PRP
Think Buckley will be too fast and strong for Morono to play his game. The question will be if Morono can out pace him as the fight goes. But even if Buckley doesn’t score the big KO, I think he’ll have enough to take 2 rounds.
Taking a small flier on Maness in the last line and as a straight ML bet. Hard to trust him too much, he has been on a bit of a skid. But he has fought and competed with some of the best, he is solid and well rounded. Mendonca is being priced like a blue chip prospect, and I just don’t see it. He has fought a very low level of competition, and when he has fought higher level pros he has stuggled.