FULL UFC Vegas 67
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First card of the year! And maybe I am just thirsty for UFC fights, but this card is pretty fun! I think we’ll be in store for some violence and there are some solid prospects on the card as well.
This has been a tough card for betting though. Basically every fight is either a juiced up favourite or a razor close matchup. In this moment, I’m feeling confident in the bets I built, really looking forward to seeing how it plays out!
Jimmy Flick vs Charles Johnson
I love this fight, two skilled and dangerous flyweights. Wouldn’t surprise me if both these newcomers became mainstays in the underrated flyweight division.
Johnson can wrestle, but this will play out as a grappler vs striker matchup. (hot take warning) Flick has some of the wildest and most aggressive grappling in the UFC, he won his last fight via flying triangle! But, he does have some pretty rigid striking and does tend to get hit. Johnson has some clean and technical boxing, he will be a KO threat every minute this stays on the feet.
Flick has 4 losses via TKO, and Johnson will be one of the best strikers he has ever faced and of Flicks 16 wins, 14 have come via sub.
It feels like Flick is either throwing out a crazy sub, or getting TKO’d in this one. The style matchup lends its self to a finish, but can’t get a confident read on who is worth backing at these prices.
But DNGTD at -275 is interesting.
Bet on Fight: DNGTD in the top line of the Prop PRP.
Daniel Argueta vs Nick Aguirre
Aguirre is taking this on short notice, and it will be a big step up in competition for him. Argueta will also be bigger, and a tough style match up for Aguirre.
Aguirre has competed in a pretty low level of MMA, and typically wins his fights taking his opponents down. Even if he does take Argueta down early, it is difficult to imagine he’ll be able to do it the whole fight. Argueta is a solid wrestler himself.
Argueta had a bit of a reputation going in to the UFC, but he is still looking for his first UFC win. So it is tough to back him at these prices, but I’m gonna..
Bet on Fight: Argueta 2nd line of Main PRP.
Allan Nascimento vs Carlos Hernandez
Allan is an underappreciated and underrated fighter. 4 of his 6 losses have been against UFC fighters (the other two had a combined record of 29-6 when he fought them), he has never been finished, and his 3 most recent losses came via split decision.
Allan has been fighting at a high level of MMA since 2014, and has fought and competed with ranked UFC fighters. Carlos Hernandez is solid, but this is a different level of competition for him.
I think this fight ends up looking similar to Allan’s last fight against Jake Hadley. Allans pressure, pace and well rounded game will be too much for the inexperienced Hernandez. -360 is steep, but I am ok backing him at these prices.
Bet on Fight: Allan top line of Main PRP
Mateusz Rebecki vs Nick Fiore
Another unproven juiced up favourite fighting an inexperienced late placement opponent.
Rebecki has the clear PTV with his wrestling and aggressiveness. And he has competed at a much different level of MMA.
Don’t love the line, but we’ll put in the PRP.
Bet on Fight: Rebecki 2nd line of Main PRP.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Claudio Ribeiro
Oh boy, I think we all know what to expect here. Two wild KO artist stepping into the small cage.
Both these guys have plenty of 1st round KOs. Both these guys are happy to throw.
I have been tempted to bet over 1.5 rounds and fade this assumption. Often when two dangerous strikers matchup, there is some hesitation. Or they do exactly what you’d expect..
Going to avoid and leave this one off my record, may do a live bet. We’ll see.
Bet on Fight: N/A
Mateus Mendonca vs Javid Basharat
I am a big fan of Javid, I think he could compete with top 15 in the stacked bantamweight division right now. He has excellent distance management and creative striking.
Mendonca is dangerous, but his come forward style will play well into Javids counter striking. Mateus will be less dangerous as the fight goes, and Javid will still keep the same pace as he begins to get better reads.
Don’t know if Javid gets the finish, but he should look like the clear fave.
Bet on Fight: Basharat top line of Main PRP
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos
Well, this one is interesting. The story of this fight has become how juiced the line has become.
Raoni is good. He’s been a solid UFc bantamweight for a long time, its no wonder people are surprised by this line.
With that said, Umar is a future contender in this division. He is better than Raoni at everything Raoni is good at, and he is still young and improving.
-1000 is a tough pill to swallow against a guy like Raoni. But we gotta do it.
Bet on Fight: Umar in topline of Main PRP. Umar 3, DEC in third line of Prop PRP.
Ketlen Vieira vs Raquel Pennington
Close one, against two fighters kind of stuck in the top 10, but will have a hard time being a real threat to the championship.
Ketlen has a sub game, but she doesn’t utilize it much as of late. This most likely plays out on the feet in a close kickboxing fight.
I like Raquels cleaner boxing here at plus money, but not a ton of conviction.
Bet on Fight: fight GTD in topline of prop PRP. Rocky ML, Rocky fourth line of Main PRP.
Punahele Soriano vs Roman Kopylov
Two dangerous strikers, but only one has a proven ability of doing it at the UFC level, and has shown more tangible signs of improvement as of late.
Soriano has some wild power, and as these two are striking it out, I feel good that Soriano will be the one more likely to land the fight ending blow.
Bet on Fight: Sariano ITD, second line of Main PRP, Sariano ITD second line of Prop PRP
Dan Ige vs Damon Jackson
This is an interesting one.
You’d think Ige is just on a different level, he’s been competing with the upper echelon of the UFCs featherweight division. He has lost 3 in a row, but all 3 are either previous or future title challengers (Evloev being the future challenger).
Whereas Jackson is fighting UFC newcomers. And sure, he’s winning and stopping guys. But eventually Damon Jackson is going to run into a class of fighter that he can no longer hang with. And we may have that with Ige.
Ige has some really quick hands, and Jackson can be vulnerable on the feet.
But Ige has also struggled against a fighter that has a grapple heavy approach like Jackson! And Ige only has 2 TKOs in the UFC and 4 in his career.
This fight will most likely play out as a clash of styles, but it is also a clash of common reads on a fight. Often a good read can be identifying a good fighter on a losing streak that offers +EV taking on a different caliber of opponent. But other times, its easy to back the hot fighter with a clear PTV.
It may not end up looking close, but knowing which read to put more weight on is tough. They started offering Jackson at +110, so I’ll take plus money on the fighter on a winning streak who could steal 2 rounds in the small cage spamming takedowns
Bet on Fight: Jackson ML, Jackson fourth line of Main PRP
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov
Ugh. Another Strickland main event. It kinda feels like a fitting way to start the year.
In normal circumstances, I’d like Imavov in this one. He has a dangerous and well rounded skill set. He has a better fight IQ and is more willing to mix it up if thats where he will have more success. But, in these normal circumstances, Seans pace and volume could ultimately be too much for Imavov. These are not normal circumstances, and I do not believe Sean is in the right condition to possess those tools for a 5 round fight.
Imavov could end up looking like a steal at -130. Also sprinkling and parlaying him winning late or by decision. I like that line, +270 is solid.
Bet on Fight: Imavov ML, Imavov 4, 5, DEC, Imavov third line line of Main PRP, Imavov 4, 5, DEC third line of prop PRP