UFC London – Bets

Timur Valiev ML -115 (53.49%) – 1u

These two have a fairly similar fight style, but I expect Timur to be the faster, stronger, and more dangerous.

Paul Craig ML +160 (38.46%) – 1.5u
Paul Craig ITD +275 (26.67%) – .25u

I think Nikita Krylov is one of the more overrated fighters in the division. People like to look at his record and see his losses are only to championship caliber fighters. But he is mostly effective when he is grappling, but he is sloppy. And sloppy grappling will not work with Paul Craig. I expect Krylov to get subbed, or get battered on his back.

Mike Grundy ML -190 (65.52%) – 2u
Mike Grundy ITD +285 (25.97%) – .5u

Makwan is most effective when he can grind and grapple his opponents. That will be next to impossible for him against a guy like Grundy. Grundy was a world class wrestler in England, and there is a high likelihood he is the one that controls the grappling.

Grundy will also be far more likely to be fresh late in the fight. The finish is under priced here. Wanted to bet 3rd round finish for Grundy, but keeping it simple.

Dan Hooker ML -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

Ok, this fight is so so close. But I am taking Dans experience and size. I think he will be able to physically overwhelm Arnold, and will keep Arnold on his back foot and will be landing more strikes.

Tom Aspinall SUB +550 (15.38%) – .25u
Tom Aspinall TKO RD 1 +600 (14.29%) .25u
Alexander Volkov RD 3 +1200 (7.69%) .1u
Alexander Volkov RD 4 +1500 (6.25%) .1u
Alexander Volkov RD 5 +2200 (4.35%) .1u
Volkov vs Aspinall UNDER 4.5 -155 (60.78%) 3u

Ok, throwing some darts on this one.

Few ways I see this playing,
Tom is just too quick for Volkov, he is able to get inside early and lands the clean punch to take Volkov out.
Tom is unable to find that punch that lands him the early KO, they start trading punches, and Tom sneaks in a takedown and the sub play becomes a possibility (like the Arlovski fight)
Tom is unable to put Volkov away and starts to fade late, and Volkov takes over and puts Tom away.

Either way, I like the odds of this fight ending at some point. So main play is on the under 4.5 rounds at -155. With some darts to hopefully increase the pay out.

Topuria – Pimblett PARLAY -339 (77.22%) – 2u

Beginning of linking up some parlays.

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna PARLAY +109 (47.85%) – 3.5u

Main parlay play. Like these 4 favourites in their fights.

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna – Grundy – Valiev PARLAY +496 (16.78%) – 2u

Adding in two more of my favourites in the card into the parlay

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna – Grundy – Valiev – Craig – Hooker PARLAY +2938 (3.29%) – 1u

Parlaying the rest of the picks!

Nelson – Grundy – Valiev PARLAY +237 (29.67%) – 2u

Getting some parlay action away from some of the heavy favourites to hedge some potential craziness busting the parlays.

Craig ITD – Grundy ITD – Nelson ITD PARLAY +2000 (4.76%) – .25u

Taking the highest conviction/value props and parlaying them!

Valiev – Craig ITD – Grundy ITD – Nelson ITD – Pimblett RD 1 – Hooker DEC PARLAY +26087 (.38%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

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if you do not know, now you do know – UFC London

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UFC London
Event Preview

The UFC returns to London after almost exactly 3 years! And this is a big one. This card has that big fight feel, and has the depth of a stacked PPV from top to bottom.

There has been a resurgence in UK MMA in the last few years, and the current crop of talent coming out of England is far and away the best we have ever seen. So the UFC being able to showcase that up and coming talent in front of a home crowd for the first time in 3 years – it should make for an incredible scene on Saturday. This is a can’t miss event.

There are so many intriguing fights and blue chip prospects on this card. Let’s dive in.

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Muhammad Mokaev vs Cody Durden
Flyweight – 125 pounds

Ok – we have a very intriguing fight to kick off the card. Muhammad Mokaev is only 21 years old, he is 5-0 as a pro, and 22-0 as an amateur. And he is one of the most exciting prospects to enter the UFC in a long time, and is one of the first true blue chip prospects we have had at 125.

Muhammad Mokaev was born in Dagestan, but he moved to England when he was 11 years old and will fly the Union Jack representing England as a fighter. So this will be a big spot for his debut. Mokaev is a very aggressive and athletic fighter. He will be difficult to handle anywhere the fight can take place, as he is very quick on his feet and likes to throw out a lot of kicks, and he is a very good grappler and can control the fight with his wrestling.

His opponent, Cody Durden is a fantastic first matchup in the UFC for Mokaev. He may not have a big name, and I’m sure many are assuming he just some can for Mokaev to crush. But I think Cody Durden can put up a really tough fight. Durden has 3 fights in the UFC, including a draw against Bantamweight prospect Chris Gutierrez, and he is coming off a UD win in his last outing. Durden is a solid grappler himself, winning state titles in high school and went on to wrestle in college before he had to drop out. Durden also has some some solid striking in his toolkit – Cody is not going to be some easy roll over win for Mokaev. This is a real test.

I’m really looking forward to this one.

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Jack Shore vs Timur Valiev
Bantamweight – 135 pounds

This division is just so stupid. Anytime there is a Bantamweight fight on a card it seems like it is worth paying attention to. There is just so much talent in this division, there is no room for error. And this fight is another example.

Jack Shore is undefeated sitting at 15-0 in his pro MMA career, including 4 wins in the UFC and he was the Cage Warriors Bantamweight Champion before entering the UFC. Jack is a very methodical, intelligent and disciplined fighter. He has clean striking, but has been winning fights in the UFC with his fight IQ and heavy grapple attack. He is earmarked as one of UKs best chances at a title. But he has a really tough matchup in Timur Valiev.

Timur is coming off an impressive performance against one of the most underrated fighters in the division, Raoni Barcelos. It was an awesome back and forth fight, with Timur’s volume, pace, and wrestling making the difference. Timur has powerful and technical striking, with the ability to chain wrestle his way to victory.

These two are similar in many ways, it will be interesting to see who can continue the slow, difficult climb at 135.

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Jai Herbert vs Ilia Topuria
Lightweight – 155 pounds

Well, this fight kind of has a different feel to it after Ilia confronted Paddy in the fighter hotel on Tuesday. There has been a bit of a back and forth between Ilia and the hometown favourite, Paddy Pimblet. Something to do with Paddy saying something about Ilia’s home country? I’m not too sure. But now a lot of the talk seems to be about Ilia vs Paddy. And that fight does sound appealing, and it kind of makes sense for both. Paddy is a big name trying to climb the rankings, and Ilia is a ranked fighter trying to build his name!

But Ilia is the one who is ranked, he is the one who is a fight or two away from title eliminators – and in a different division! Paddy is still building his career in the UFC. Regardless of how personal this is, they both should have different focuses right now.

Ilia could put himself in a great position with a big win in this fight. He is 11-0 in MMA and 3-0 in the UFC. Ilia is just about ready to cross over from prospect into a true contender in 2022. He has knockout power, strong grappling and looks to be a serious athlete.

Despite going up a division on late notice, Ilia Topuria has a favourable matchup against the hometown fighter, Jai Herbert. Jai Herbert has some solid striking, but he is going to have his hands full with Topuria.

Respect to Jai Herbet, but the fighter to watch here is Ilia Topuria. He will be looking for a statement win to either set up a big matchup later this year.

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Gunnar Nelson vs Takashi Sato
Welterweight – 170 pounds

Gunner Nelson is back! The mild-mannered Icelandic fighter and teammate of Conor McGregor is returning to the octagon after almost 3 years away!

There was a time in history where some believed that John Kavanagh was going to have 2 UFC champions in Conor McGregor and Gunner Nelson. Boy did these two have a rollar coaster careers in front of them..

Conor, went on to become Conor. And Gunner – well he traded wins and losses over his last 10 fights in the UFC. But – go look at those losses. He lost to the best in the world! Split decision loss to Leon Edwards, that eye poke incident against Santiago Ponzinibbio. And his last fight was a competitive fight against Gilbert Burns! Who went to fight for the title at 170.

Gunner is still only 33 years old, maybe that time away will serve him well. It did always kind of feel like Gunner had more to give. I am excited to see how he looks in his return. Gunner has a fun long style of striking, looking to find a good straight counter. But his specialty is his grappling. Now that he is back, he is one of the best grapplers the division.

His opponent, Takashi Soto has also been away from the octagon for an extended period. Last fighting in 2020, losing to Miguel Baeza via submission in the 2nd round. Soto debuted in 2019 and has gone 2-2 in the octagon. He will be looking for the knockout as 11 of his 15 wins have come via TKO, including his 2 UFC wins. But his two losses have come via submission, which could spell trouble against a guy like Gunner Nelson.

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Paddy Pimblett vs Rodrigo Vargas
Lightweight – 155 pounds

Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett. Could we be looking at the next superstar in MMA? The new “cash cow”? To use his words. Well, there is no question he has all the makings of a superstar. People love The Baddy. His look, his attitude, his accent, his fights! He is getting attention and opportunities that fighters who are 1-0 in the UFC do not typically get.

For example, Paddy signed a “Seven-figure” deal with Barstool Sports. And regardless of how you feel about Barstool and Dave Portnoy – it is a big deal that Barstool wants to promote Paddy Pimblett. Barstool is one of the biggest and most influential brands online. Dave Portnoy is one of the biggest celebrities on the internet! Paddy only has 1 UFC fight! And he is the first MMA fighter Barstool has gone out of their way to back and sponsor.

Paddy is a great personality to attach to your brand. The guy is a ton of fun. It makes sense Barstool wants to partner up with him. But – we don’t know how good he is yet. Because that is what matters. Are you good enough to win fights in the UFC? Sometimes these fighters we love don’t also happen to be one of the best 20 (or so) fighters in the world. If you aren’t good enough to rack up some consistent wins, it is hard to stick around in the UFC for long and justify the spotlight he is currently earning.

And that is what makes these fights with these potential superstars really interesting. We all want these superstars to do well, but until they actually get in the cage and compete, it’s all wishful thinking.

And Paddy is definitely a good fighter. And the UFC is bringing him up slowly, which is good. He’s only 27. Paddy is more well known for his grappling, but is striking is coming along. He looked really quick on the feet in his last time out. He had some trouble early, but you could see his confidence remain throughout the whole fight, and eventually he won via a thrilling KO near the end of the 1st round.

Paddy will be fighting a similar caliber of opponent in this bout. Rodrigo Vargas is 1-2 in the UFC, with his most recent fight being a win against Zhu Rong via unanimous decision. Rodrigo will want to keep this on the feet and try and find Paddy’s chin like his last opponent. But Rodrigo is 36 years old, and it is not quite clear he is truly UFC caliber. He will be slower than Paddy, he will have a difficult time handling Paddy on the ground, and typically a younger fighter will be improving faster than an older fighter, so Paddy could also have an advantage on the feet.

This should be a showcase fight for Paddy Pimblett. It will be on him to execute. And Rodrigo will be looking to spoil the homecoming, but he is short on tools to do so.

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Arnold Allen vs Dan Hooker
Featherweight – 145 pounds

This is an absolutely fantastic matchup. So compelling. Not only are these two of the nicest and most likeable guys in the sport, this is a huge fight for the pecking order at 145. Both these guys are really good. And kind of similar in their fight styles.

Arnold Allen is 17-1 and 8-0 in the UFC. Arnold has been beating guys in the UFC since 2015, and he is just now starting to get some main card attention. For a long time, it felt like he was the forgotten blue-chip prospect in the UFC. Quietly racking up wins against tough opponents, many who didn’t have big names. Allen subbed Mads Burnell, who then went on to win 7 straight fights outside the UFC. He has beat UFC vets Nik Lentz and Gilbert Melendez. And Arnolds last fight was a clash of prospects when he beat Sodiq Yusuff. Arnold looked fantastic in this fight. He was quicker on the feet and hurt Sodiq a couple times. Arnold can also out grapple and chain wrestle if that is was is required.

Dan Hooker is returning to the Featherweight division after he initially made his debut in the UFC as a featherweight in 2014. But he has not fought at 145 since 2016, I would even guess many forgot he was a Featherweight! It was a long time ago.

Dan Hooker has been fighting the very best since he debuted in the UFC, but he did find his best success once he moved up to 155 in 2017. Dan was losing some decisions in close fights at 145, then he moved up to 155 in 2017 and won 7 of his next 8 fights. However, Dan had issues when he faced the top of the division. Losing fights to Islam, Dustin, and Chandler. So the time came for him to revisit his opportunities at 145. And normally fans are skeptical about fighters trying to find their stride by going down a division, but I am a fan of this move. Dan Hooker is a great addition to 145, and I think this is a better division for him. Dans will be a much more physical fighter with his frame at 145.

This fight is so close. As I am typing this, I just can not make up my mind on who has the advantage. Arnold is the young fighter who has the positive momentum, and he looked great in his last fight against Sodiq Yusuff. But Dan is the one who has the high-level experience! And he will be the bigger, more physical fighter.

Dan is going to want to walk him down and overwhelm him with volume, Arnold will want to be elusive and find his counter strike. And they will both be a threat to change levels and change the pace of the fight.

Arnold will be looking to win in his first opportunity in a high profile fight, and Dan can not afford another loss after making the change to a new division. For Dan to get himself more big fights, he needs this win.

I really love this fight. Cant wait.

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Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall
Heavyweight – 265 pounds

We got an important heavyweight fight in our main event. The heavyweight division has not been this fun in a long time. And both of these guys are good examples why – but for different reasons.

Tom Aspinall is the prospect trying to become a contender. He has lighting quick hands and has showed some real killer instinct in the octagon, against real guys! He isn’t crushing heavyweight cans. Spivak, Arlovski, these are legitimate UFC heavyweights that the best guys have had issues against. Did you know Arlovski has lost one fight since 2019? He is 5-1 in his last 6. And Sergey Spivak is a basically a bear. Tom Aspinall made quick work of both. And he has everyone wondering – just how good is Tom Aspinall.

Well we will get a good idea of just how good Tom is against a staple of the top 10 in the UFC heavyweight division. Alexander Volkov is a former Bellator champ, and he is exactly the type of depth a division needs to give it some integrity. Because that has always been the complaint about heavyweight, that the depth is thin. So, we need guys like Alexander Volkov. Some would call him a gatekeeper, and maybe that is an accurate term for him. But another way to say this is – he is just a good fighter. “Gatekeepers” provide a litmus test for prosects and tell us if they are ready for the top 5 or title shots.

Volkov is a huge dude. He is 6’7” and he uses all of that frame controlling the distance and picking shots from the outside. If Tom Aspinall can put him away, he will do something very few before him have been able to do. And Volkov has fought the best in the world at Heavyweight. This is an important fight for Tom and his career trajectory.

This card is so good it almost feels like people are sleeping on the main event. And sometimes heavyweights are the main event only because they’re heavyweights. Which is kind of annoying. But this is an important fight for the heavyweight division. Tom Aspinall could disrupt a lot of plans in the UFC heavyweight division in 2022. He is positioned to make some noise this year.

if you do not know, now you do know