if you do not know, now you do know – UFC Vegas 53

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UFC Vegas 53
Event Preview

Alright, another top heavy Apex card. Anyone else getting sick of these? Thankfully we have a banging PPV next week!

Rob Font vs Marlon Vera is a fantastic fight. 135 is truly absurd. And these two are right near the top of the division, with no room for error if they want their chance at the title. And the style matchup will make for an awesome fight.

The rest of the card is lacking intrigue. But lets take a look at the fights I am most looking forward to.

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Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario
Flyweight – 125 pounds

Ok, one of the best fights on this card is the first fight!

I am really interested in getting a look at Tatsuro Taira in the UFC. This kid might be the real deal. He is only 22 years old, and already has a record of 10-0 as a pro and 9-0 as an amateur. And he has stopped his opponents in all but 2 of his pro wins, and he has been fighting real guys over in Japan! He has a bunch of subs on his record, but his striking looks really clean. And powerful. Super interesting to see a kid this young in the UFC.

Flyweight might be the most underrated division in the UFC. There are is a bunch of really good young talent coming up, and Tatsuro Taira will be looking to join that group!

He will have a favourable matchup in Carlos Candelario. Carlos is a solid fighter, he will come forward and bring the fight to Taira. But all indications are that he is not the same level of fighter or athlete.

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Jared Gordon vs Grant Dawson
Lightweight – 155 pounds

Interesting matchup here.

28 year old Grant Dawson still has that prospect label. He is 17-1-1 in MMA, 5-0-1 in the UFC. But he hasn’t been able to really take that next step up in UFC competition. His last time out against Ricky Glenn was a fairly memorable and notable performance. It is not often you see a fighter clearly win the first two rounds, and then lose the 3rd 10-8 because they have nothing left.

And that fight against Ricky Glenn is a good representation of why he has had issues getting over that hump. He had an extremely one dimensional attack, and wasn’t able to go the full 15 minutes. You are not going to stand against the average UFC calibre lightweight fighting like that. And you definitely are not going to beat anyone in the top 15.

Dawsons opponent is another solid UFC fighter, Jared Gordon. But if Dawson is going to take that next step he needs to start now. We need to see some progression in his game if he wants to remain a viable prospect in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport.

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Andre Fili vs Joanderson Brito
Featherweight – 145 pounds

I am a fan of Andre Fili. He has been in the UFC since 2013! And he has fought some of the best at 145. He has a fan friendly fight style and a well rounded skill set. But he has not been able to string together a consistent run of wins in the UFC. 145 is an absolute shark tank, so there is no shame in being a .500 fighter in that division. If anything, fighters who can stick around as long as Fili have good reason to be proud of their longevity.

Fili will be looking to get back into the win column against a relative UFC newcomer in Joanderson Brito.

Brito first made an appearance on DWCS, winning via technical decision, but dropped his UFC debut to Bill Algeo. Brito will most likely want to take this to the ground and keep Fili guessing.

Fili is clearly UFC caliber, it is not clear Brito is. Should be interesting.

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Rob Font vs Marlon Vera
Bantamweight – 135 pounds

Alright now this is a fight. Two of the best in the division. And a clash of styles that should make for a really fun fight.

For a long time it felt like Rob Font was one of the most underrated fighters in the sport. But this is now Rob’s third straight main event! It has been great to see Rob get that spotlight over the last year. It is well deserved. Font has some solid wrestling, and really clean boxing. He is a danger to any 135er in the world.

Marlon Vera has been around for awhile and was always a fan favourite, but it was when he TKO’d Suga Sean that his career really took off. Vera has some really fun striking and a solid ground game. He made a big statement in his last fight with a front kick KO of one of MMAs GOATs, Frankie Edgar.

Both of these guys suffered their most recent loss to another MMA GOAT, and potentially the number 1 contender at 135, Jose Aldo. Both these guys have a fan friendly style. And neither can afford to lose if they are going to fight for a title anytime soon.

This is a must win fight between two really good and exciting fighters. Which is the perfect recipe for an awesome fight. Can’t wait.

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UFC Vegas 52 – Bets

Aoriqileng – Else UNDER 2.5 -155 (60.78%) – 2.5u

Ok, this is sort of a hedge. I have Aoriqileng in some parlays, and I expect him to be good enough on the feet to close the gap and take Else down. If Aoriqileng grinds a decision I’ll be happy.

But Cameron Else has seen one 3rd round in his pro MMA career. All of his wins have come in the 1st round, if he wins he is catching Aoriqileng early.

But ideally, Aoriqileng is able to avoid the big punch, wear down Else and stop a tired fighter somewhere around the 2nd round.

Wright – Barriault UNDER 2.5 -155 (60.78%) – 1.5u

Similar reasons as the fight above. But Wright has never even seen a 3rd round! MAB could grind him out, but if Wright doesn’t KO him early he might have a tough time lasting.

Montana De La Rosa ML +154 (39.37%) – 3u
Montana De La Rosa ITD +500 (16.67%) -.5u

This line doesn’t make much sense to me. I’d assume it’s more about Barbers name recognition attracting more money from bettors. And Barber could keep De La Rosa on her back foot and overwhelm her with volume. But Barber has not been able to do that recently, and she is not exactly a world class striker. And De La Rosa is a massively underrated fighter in general, with a really tough style for Barber to deal with.

De La Rosa has been improving her striking with each fight, and her heavy wrestle style will a perfect answer to Barbers attempts to put her on her back foot.

If De La Rosa can put Barber on her back and keep her there, this line could look like a steal.

Lando Vannata ML -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

I like Lando’s experience and versatility here. Razor close fight on the feet, should be a competitive fight.

Jessica Andrade ITD +140 (41.67%) – 1.5u

Jessica Andrade should prove herself to be a different caliber of fighter. Lemos biggest threat will be early in the fight, but as the fight goes on Lemos’ chance to win the fight will diminish, and 25 minutes will be a long time for her to try and survive.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng PARLAY +115 (46.51%) – 3u

First leg of the parlay.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng – Vannata – De La Rosa PARLAY +958 (9.58%) – 1.5u

I went back and forth on this leg of the parlay, ultimately went with the two I believed were the best value.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng – De La Rosa – Vannata – Barriault – Grant PARLAY +3148 (3.08%) – .5u

Adding in two that I feel have a good chance against suspect competition. These two were to going to be in the previous leg, but neither of them are good enough to fully trust, regardless of their competition.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng – Vannata – De La Rosa – Barriault – Grant – Prachnio – Pedro PARLAY +6496 (1.52%) – .25u

Adding in Prachnio and Pedro to the last full parlay. I know Pedro is probably higher in some parlays, but he has been away for so long and the line is so crazy. Hard to trust.

Aoriqileng-Else U2.5 – Wright-Barriault U2.5 PARLAY +171 (36.90%) – 1.5u

Parlaying these two unders to add some leverage to the plays, as they can both also kind of act as hedges.

Aoriqileng ITD – Andrade ITD – De La Rosa ITD PARLAY +2780 (3.47%) – .25u

Taking some of my favourite value finish props and parlaying them up.

Aoriqileng ITD – Prachnio TKO – Andrade ITD – Vannata DEC – De La Rosa ITD – Wright-Barriault U2.5 PARLAY +42246 (0.24%) – .1u

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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if you do not know, now you do know – UFC Vegas 52

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UFC Vegas 52
Event Preview

You know what – this is a good card. I know people have been crapping on it. But this card has some solid fighters, and fun fights. With an added convenience – all the best fights are on the main card. You’d think that’d be a common occurrence. But it isn’t. The UFC will often put fun prospects and big names on the prelims on purpose for various reasons, but there often seems to be no rhyme or reason for their card construction. It is frustrating.

But this is a rare event where all the best fights are packaged nice and clean on the main card! Love it. Let’s dive in.

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Landon Vannata vs Charles Jourdain
Featherweight – 145 pounds

The 145 pound division is an absolute shark tank and every guy needs to scratch and claw their way to make any progress. The perfect example of how competitive this division is – neither of these guys have won or lost consecutive fights in the UFC since 2016. And they both have draws during that span! Crazy.

I expect this to be an extremely competitive fight. Both showing a well rounded game with fun striking on display. Really curious to see who can establish their first win streak in years.

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Sumudaerji vs Manel Kape
Flyweight – 125 pounds

Nothing better than a fun flyweight scrap.

Manel Kape was one of the better flyweights outside the UFC, spending years in RIZIN over in Japan. Fans were excited when he made the switch to the UFC, but he dropped his first two fights. But Pantoja and Nicolau are both top 10 flyweights, and Kape represented well in both fights. He has since rattled off two straight 1st round KO’s and is living up to the hype hardcores had for him when he first joined the UFC.

Manel Kape and his fan friendly fight style will have a willing dance partner in the Chinese striker, Sumudaerji. Sumudaerji has a fun and quick “in-and-out” style of striking. And he is a giant at 125.

Should be fun.

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Maycee Barber vs Montana De La Rosa
Flyweight – 125 pounds

Mayce Barber started her career with a lot of hype. She had aspirations of becoming the youngest champion in UFC history, and after she started her UFC career with 3 straight finishes it looked like she might have a chance! But unfortunately she ran into a force known as Roxanne Modafferi and she suffered her first career loss. She has since traded a win and a loss, but that win was in her last fight against Miranda Maverick and it was one of the more controversial decisions in recent memory. And that is saying something..

Maycee will have a tough style matchup in the UFC vet Montana De La Rosa. De La Rosa debuted in the UFC when she was a part of the TUF season that introduced the division. She’s amassed a respectable record of 5-2-1 in the UFC and she has been fighting the best in her division for the majority of her pro career.

Will be interesting to see how the once bright prospect responds to her recent struggles against a tougher and experienced fighter.

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Clay Guida vs Claudio Puelles
Lightweight – 155 pounds

I really like this fight. It is good match making. And an interesting stylistic clash.

Clay Guida is a man, he’s 40 – and he is one of the last fighters from our childhood! And he’s gotta be one of the last guys who fought on Spike, right? It feels like Clay has been around forever, he almost has 60 fights!!

Clay Guida was always a respectable top tier fighter, but a couple years ago it kind of felt like Guida was over the hill and his best years were behind him. But he had a resurgence in 2021! He went 2-1, but that 1 loss was via split to the Olympian Mark Madsen! And he won via RNC in his last time out against Leonardo Santos, another prospect..

Claudio Puelles was 7 years old when Clay was losing his pro debut. Puelles will turn 26 two days before his fight with Guida and will be making his 6th UFC appearance, winning his last 4.

Claudio is a strong athletic fighter with a dangerous submission game, but not great wrestling. Whereas Clay is known for his wrestling, but not so good defending submissions. And on the feet, Clay will be looking to land volume the whole fight. And Claudio will be looking for power strikes.

Lots to like in this fight. I can’t wait to see how it plays out. Big test for the prospect, Claudio Puelles.

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Amanda Lemos vs Jessica Andrade
Strawweight – 115 pounds

An important fight at 115 between two of the most feared fighters in all of women’s MMA.

Jessica Andrade has been a staple of the very top of both the 115 and 125 pound divisions and is one of the best female fighters in the world. She is ultra aggressive, and powerful. With a really well rounded skill set. She is a major threat to get that Strawweight title back.

Amanda Lemos is 11-1-1 and undefeated at 115 with 3 of her 5 UFC wins coming via finish. She also scored a knockdown in each of her 2 decision wins in the UFC. She carries some serious power for the weight class.

This is a fun stylistic fight. And an important fight for the strawweight division.

if you do not know, now you do know

UFC Vegas 51 – Bets

Kevin Croom ML +150 (40.00%) – 1u

Like Crooms experience, style, and size advantage here. Croom has a checkered record, but he is worth a healthy flier here.

Istela Nunes TKO +500 (16.67%) – .25u

Istela Nunes is a much higher level striker, she was a former world Muay Thai champ and she has fought the better competition. Willing to take a flier at +500 that she can make Hughes quit on the feet.

Jordan Leavitt ML +125 (44.44%) – 1u
Jordan Leavitt SUB +295 (25.32%) – .5u

I like Jordan at these prices. He has not made his way too far up the UFC ladder, but he does has some UFC wins. And he is the type to spam takedowns and sub attempts. And while Ogden also looks to be a grappler, he has been fighting regional competition up until recently, is taking this fight on short notice, and 3 of his 4 losses come via sub.

Ogden’s size worries me, but I am assuming Leavitt is the one who is UFC calibur, because he has proved he is and he is the one that is plus money here. Like the bet.

Martin Buday ITD -185 (64.91%) – 1.5u

I will have more money on Buday in some parlays. But I don’t see Barnett being able to survive 15 minutes. Buday has a chin, and he is a terrible style matchup for Barnett. He will lean on Barnett and wear him down, if these big boys haven’t get clipped and taken out early, I think Barnett is too exhausted to see the scorecards.

Ange Loosa ML +163 (38.02%) – 1.5u
Ange Loosa DEC +350 (22.22%) – .25u

Loosa is coming off a 3 round win against UFC vet John Howard 2 weeks ago, and before that he had a great fight with the killer Jack Della Maddalena on DWCS. Jack has some really powerful and clean boxing, and Loosa is the only guy who made the scorecards durings Jack’s 11 fight win streak.

Loosa likes to spam the takedown, and I think Lazzez will have a tough time staying on his feet. I can see him stealing two round with his wrestling while the striking is more or less even.

Loosa is taking this fight on short notice, but I think he will prove to be on a different level. Like him at these prices.

Baeza vs Fialho UNDER 2.5 -135 (57.45%) – 2u
Miguel Baeza ITD +110 (47.62%) – .5u

Baeza has hit a skid after starting his career undefeated and his UFC career with 3 finishes. While I don’t love betting on fighters on losing streaks, Baeza has the skills to take out his opponent in this one. Hedging an under 2.5 rounds incase he gets clipped, as the boxing of Fialho and Baeza’s chin could be the biggest risk.

But Baeza should be the more versatile striker, and I think the leg kicks specifically will be the difference. Baeza is only 29, and was competing with some of the best in the UFC. When we look back in a year or two I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baeza back on track.

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev ML -125 (55.56%) – 2u

Going with the grappler here. Gadzhi also has some clean striking, and a better strength of schedule.

Vicente Luque ITD -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

I really like Luque here, forget that he already KOd Belal in the first round, I think he also also improved far more than Belal since then. And, bet on what has happened, not what you hope will happen.

Also, stylistically, Luque has the advantage. Luque is much more dangerous on the feet, and he has some of the best submissions in the division. So it will be tough for Belal to just spam the takedown for 25 minutes.

Like Luque a lot in this fight. He could make a statement with this one. Don’t sleep on Luque at 170.

Sabatini – Buday PARLAY -148 (59.68%) – 2.5u

First leg of the parlay chain! Buday’s only chance of losing is getting clipped, but he has a chin, and Sabatini is a bigger better version of his opponent. Rightful big favourite.

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes PARLAY +144 (40.98%) – 2.5u

Adding in Nunes to the front of the parlay chain.

Baeza – Omargadzhiev – Luque PARLAY +336 (22.94%) – 2.5u

Separate parlay of some of my favourites.

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes – Luque – Omargadzhiev – Baeza PARLAY +961 (9.43%) – 1u

Linking the two parlays.

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes – Luque – Omargadzhiev – Baeza – Loosa PARLAY +2733 (3.53%) – .5u

Adding in Loosa to the two sets of parlays!

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes – Luque – Omargadzhiev – Baeza – Loosa – Leavitt – Croom PARLAY +15483 (.64%) – .25u

The final full chain!

Buday ITD – Luque ITD PARLAY +194 (34.01%) – 1.5u

Like these two to win ITD. Parlaying it up.

Buday ITD – Luque ITD – Baeza ITD PARLAY +518 (16.18%) – .5u

Adding Baeza ITD

Nunes TKO – Leavitt SUB – Buday ITD – Loosa DEC – Baeza ITD – Luque ITD PARLAY +63155 (0.16%) – .1u

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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if you do not know, now you do know – UFC Vegas 51

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UFC Vegas 51
Event Preview

Ok my dozens of readers, I can’t lie to you, this card is not good. Sometimes cards don’t have big names. But the card will still have some solid prospects, and potentially exciting fights. And while this card does have some of that to some extent, it is a shallow card.

This card however is interesting from one perspective – it is an example of what the new UFC looks like.
Back in the day, even the big PPVs, were big because of one fight, the main event. And sometimes the co-main. 3 title fights was unheard of until UFC 205! So sometimes I think we may take these stacked PPVs for granted nowadays. They are usually stacked top to bottom! It is crazy.

But the other side of those stacked PPVs, are fight nights like this. And to be fair, this card had some fights fall through. So it wouldn’t have been so bad if the card stayed together. But it didn’t.

Point is, the UFC doesn’t need to sell anything to anyone. They are in the APEX, so no tickets to sell. The ratings for a random fight night in 2022 will have absolutely zero influence on their next rights deal years from now. And, it will still pull decent numbers. Because there are a bunch of sickos just like me who will watch every fight. And there are a bunch of other sickos who are always watching ESPN. ESPN is an enormous platform, a few more “hardcore” names on a card barely matters.

The main event is really what sways the ratings. And we do have a good main for this card. It is a big fight at 170, and it kind of feels like the the winner is the Official Dark Horse at welterweight. They have met before, and Vicente won via KO in the 1st round. Will be interesting to see what differences there are this time around nearly 7 years later.

Also, do yourself a favour and catch the Bellator card this Friday.
AJ McKee is without question the best MMA fighter competing this weekend. He might not only be the best 145er in the world, he very well might be the #1 P4P. He is a star in the making. Don’t sleep on him.

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Jordan Leavitt vs Trey Ogden
Lightweight – 155 pounds

A matchup of grappling specialists! Combined, 70% of their wins have come via submission, and only 1 via TKO (This was that nasty smash Leavitt had against Matt Wiman, kind of grapply..)

Jordan Leavitt is an interesting character. He was a DWCS contestant and he stood out right away. He mentioned how he was going to school to become a lawyer! And that MMA is something he is passionate about. Which is not common back story for most cage fighters. And his fight style was also interesting. He has a really funky style of striking, but his game is to spam the takedown and get the fight on the ground any way he can.

Trey Ogden is making his UFC debut, and he has found his success in a similar fashion to his opponents, with his grappling. 11 of his 15 wins have come via submission. While he will probably be the one who is more willing to stand and trade, I am assuming he is also going to be happy to look for the submission.

This is a fun style matchup, and I am pretty interested in seeing where Jordan Leavitt’s career goes.

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Chris Barnett vs Martin Buday
Heavyweight – 265 pounds

The fighter formally known as Beatboy, Chris “Huggybear” Barnett returns for his 3rd UFC appearance coming off a wheel kick KO at MSG! Huggybear has been a hardcore fan favourite for a long time. He is a true MMA vet and has made his way all over the world in MMA and kickboxing. He has a fan friendly style, and is one of the nicest guys in the sport. Chris Barnett is an easy guy to root for. And it is nice to see him making a name for himself in the UFC. Long overdue.

Beaboy/Huggybear will be taking on a fighter making his UFC debut! Martin Buday earned this opportunity in the UFC with an impressive win on DWCS. Buday looks like he might be a serious prospect at heavyweight. He is a big dude and knows how to use that size to win his fights. He also carriers a serious chin, he might be tough to take out for most heavyweights.

Interesting clash of careers here. And this will also be a rare case where both fighters need to cut weight to make the limit at 265. Barnett used to fight at superheavyweight! Coming in around 330!

Couple of big boys.

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Miguel Baeza vs Andre Fialho
Welterweight – 170 pounds

Well this one feels like a do or die for someone who was previously seen as a top prospect at 170. Miguel Baeza had a big fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio after starting his UFC career 3-0 with 3 finishes. And after the 1st round, it was looking like Baeza was on his way to true contender status. But from that point on, he has struggled. He ended up losing a decision to Santiago Ponzinibbio, and then getting KO’d by Khaos Williams in his next fight in the 3rd round.

Miguel Baeza is a big and strong welterweight. He has clean technical striking and some solid grappling. He looks to have all the tools of a contender, but he is potentially looking at a 3 fight losing streak.

His opponent, Andre Fialho has a decent track record and experience, fighting on some of the biggest shows outside the UFC. And he is mostly known for his boxing, which could pose a difficult challenge for Baeza, who has been prone to getting hit.

Big stakes here. Fialho will want to prove he belongs in the UFC after losing his debut, and Baeza can not afford another loss. Should be fun.

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Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Middleweight – 185 pounds

A matchup between DWCS prospects…as the 2nd to last fight (it is not a “co-main”).

Both of these guys are interesting. Caio won two fights on DWCS in less than a month. He has an interesting look and vibe to him, and he has a fun well rounded fight style. Some people are getting ready to hop on the hype train..

His opponent is named – Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. You can probably guess how he fights based on his name and how he looks. And while we don’t want to encourage stereotyping, you would be correct to make that guess. He is 13-0 and it looks like he also has some skills on the feet. I am interested to see how he does in the UFC.

Interesting clash of DWCS prospects here.

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Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad
Welterweight – 170 pounds

This is a big fight at 170. And it is an interesting clash of style. It is also a rematch of a fight in 2016, a fight Vincente Luque won via 1st round TKO.

This very well could crown the dark horse at 170 pounds. Colby is stuck at number 2, Leon is getting ready to fight Usman. Khamzat is making his climb. All the while, you have Luque on a 4 fight win streak, and Belal is on a 7 fight unbeaten streak! Both of these guys are in line for a really big fight if they win this fight.

Vicente is a killer. He’s got really clean and powerful boxing and will throw some nasty leg kicks. Vicente also has the grappling to submit the best grapplers in the division. Vicente is one of those fighters that has really earned his place, he started his pro career 4-3-1! And has still lost a bunch since then. But he has grinded, and kept at it. And now he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. He has stopped all 4 fights on his current run, and has finished 19 of his 21 wins. Win lose or draw, Vicente Luque comes to fight. He deserves to be a bigger star than he is. I think his Diaz, or Masvidal style moment is coming someday soon.

Belal Muhammad has quietly amassed a very respectable 11-3 record in the UFC, and has gone unbeaten in his last 7. Belal is one of the most likeable guys in the sport, outside the cage. He is by no means a boring fighter, he can strike and throw down. But he will also take a grapple heavy approach if that is his best path to victory. Belal’s record is kind of the inverse of his opponents, winning 15 of his 20 wins via decision. But this doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a worse fighter, decisions are often a reflection of a high fight IQ.

The realty is, fair or not fair, the winner of this fight will need to do something a little extra to stand out in the crowded UFC welterweight division.

An important fight that should be fun, despite the quality of the card, this is a solid main. Looking forward to it

if you do not know, now you do know

UFC 273 – Bets

Mark Madsen ML -105 (51.22%) – 1u

Pichel has shown below average takedown defence in the UFC sitting at 25%, so Madsen should be able to steal two rounds with his wrestling. Pichel could come alive late, but his last finish came in 2017.

Mike Malott ML -200 (66.67%) – 1u
Mike Malott RD 1, 2 +135 (42.55%) – .5u

I think Malott has the ability to make some noise in the 170 pound division.

Darian Weeks ML +300 (25.00%) – 1u
Darian Weeks ITD +400 (20.00%) – .5u

Fade warning!! I am fading Ian Garry.

Ian Garry’s last fight before he got into the UFC was against a fighter with a 17-6 record, who spent most of his career at 155. He displayed his power in his UFC debut against a fighter who went 0-3 in his UFC run. And in that fight, Garry was getting tagged. Weeks has pro boxing experience and 19 amatuer fights! He looked good against Barberena, and showed an ability to take the fight to the ground. I like this line

Mackenzie Dern ML -120 (54.55%) – 1.5u

Dern will have a much easier time grabbing Torres than she did Rodriguez. She should be able to take two rounds with her grappling. And hopefully can even find the sub.

Khamzat Chimaev RD 1, 2 -175 (63.64%) – 2u

Right as I was placing this bet my book changed the line from -150 to -175. Frig sakes.

Still like the bet. 10 minutes will be a long time in there for Gilbert. He might be able to grapple his way out of danger in the 1st, so making a safe bet and betting 1 and 2.

Petr Yan ITD +125 (44.44%) – .5u

I see a lot of people throwing some money on Aljo. And I get it, he looks great. He sounds confident. But I’d recommend those people watch that fight from last year again.

Yan defended 16 of 17 takedown attempts. And the one takedown Aljo did get, was the very first one he tried. And Yan got right back up.

And Yan is the boxer, and has displayed the better striking in the octagon, by far. I am not completely sure he finishes, but I like the line. Little sprinkle.

Alexander Volkanovski RD 1,2,3 +300 (25.00%) – 1.5u

Alex is on a whole different level. I expect Alex to be able to get inside and put The Korean Zombie away. I like being given a 25% chance that he can do that over the span of 15 minutes.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski PARLAY -168 (62.69%) – 5u

First leg of the parlay chain!

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern PARLAY +346 (22.42%) – 2.5u

Adding Malott and Dern.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern – Madsen PARLAY +772 (11.47%) – .5u

Adding Madsen to the chain, small addition, small units.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern – Madsen – Weeks PARLAY +3387 (2.87%) – 1.5u

I like this parlay. Placing a larger than average bet at these prices.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern – Madsen – Weeks – Arce – Hernandez PARLAY +8022 (1.23%) – .25u

The final addition to the full chain!

Malott – Dern PARLAY +160 (38.46%) – 2u

Adding in a side chain to hedge some of the bigger favourites!

Malott – Dern – Madsen PARLAY +446 (18.32%) – .75u

Adding Madsen to the side chain.

Malott RD 1,2 – Chimaev RD 1,2 – Volkanovski RD 1,2,3 PARLAY +1285 (7.22%) – .25u

Taking a healthy flier on these props parlayed up.

Weeks ITD – Malott RD 1, 2 – Madsen vs Pichel DRAW – Chimaev RD 1,2 – Yan ITD – Volkanovski RD 1,2,3 PARLAY +1043709 (0.01%) – .1u

The long shot this week! And it is by far my longest shot!!
Good luck!!

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if you do not know, now you do know – UFC 273

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UFC 273
Event Preview

This is a big one! The UFC returns to Jacksonville for a big PPV. 2 title fights, and the potential emergence of a superstar with abilities we have not seen before.

There has been an interesting theme developing for UFC 273 – the betting lines for the 3 big fights are becoming insane. All 3 are rightful favourites, but they have all been blown up to such an extreme degree! There are big potential fall outs when that that happens. You’ll have a lot of bettors who have thrown these guys into chalk parlays, and then a bunch who have thrown fliers on the dogs. These lines put a whole new context on these fights. New expectations get set with these lines. Very interesting..

UFC 273 also features some other notable prospects and some really fun fights!

Lets dive in!

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Julio Arce vs Daniel Santos
Bantamweight – 135 pounds

This is a fun fight to kick off the card.

I really like Julio Arce at 135. This dude has some high level skills. He is one of those guys that has had some tough luck to start his UFC career. He has 2 split decision losses against 2 really solid guys, and he ran into one of the fastest rising prospects in the UFC in his last fight against Song Yadong.

But despite how highly skilled he may be, Julio Arce needs to execute and get a win. Especially fighting a UFC newcomer in Daniel Willycat Santos.

It is tough to find tape on Willycat, but he looks to be an aggressive finisher. Will be interesting to see how he looks against a legit UFC caliber opponent.

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Mickey Gall vs Mike Malott
Welterweight – 170 pounds

This is a fun one. Mike Malott could be someone to watch.

Mike Malott has a weird record. He first debuted as a pro in 2011, as a featherweight! And was off and on up until 2017. Right around this time, he became the striking coach at Team Alpha male and was training to enter ADCC grappling tournaments as a black belt!

But in 2020, the 29 year old decided to take these skills and put them back on display in the cage. And he earned this UFC debut with a 39 second first round submission win on DWCS.

Malott has some high level well rounded skills, and is a very athletic fighter. If he is able to tie it all together and stay the course, he could make some waves at 170.

Mikey Gall is best known for his win over pro wrestling star CM Punk. Mikey Gall has stuck around for a few years after that fight, trading wins and losses. But he has yet to truly prove he is a UFC caliber fighter. The wins he does have in the UFC are all against guys who have since been released by the promotion. And I believe he is in tough here against Malott.

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Ian Garry vs Darian Weeks
Welterweight – 170 pounds

Ian ”The Future” Garry! The next Irish MMA phenom, or so he says.

Ian Garry is ’24 years of age’, 8-0 in his pro MMA career, and is the former Cage Warriors Welterweight champ. And he is 1-0 in the UFC, winning his debut at MSG via 1st round KO.

Garry has generated some solid buzz for himself. He talks well, he is good looking, and he exudes the confidence of a championship fighter. But does he have the skills and the will to actually make that climb? It is a tall task. But Ian does have a lot of physical gifts, he is a long welterweight and has some knockout power.

Ian is the sizeable betting favourite against Darian Weeks. Weeks is 5-1 in his pro MMA career, and 15-4 as an amateur! He also has some pro boxing experience on his record.

Weeks made his UFC debut on short notice against Bryan Barberena, and he showed well! He took the second round on all judges scorecards, and it was a tough fight against a legit UFC vet. Barberena is far tougher than anyone Ian Garry has fought, and Weeks did it on short notice.

Darien Weeks is being over looked here, he isnt just a can for Ian Garry. He is a tough style matchup for Ian. He is without a doubt the toughest test of Ian Garys career. We got a fight with this one.

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Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Torres
Strawweight – 115 pounds

This fight is a great example why 115 is the best division in womens MMA. Both these fighters are really good. And both have had issues breaking into the top of the division.

Tecia Torres has been around since the beginning of the strawweight division as a competitor on TUF 20, the season that introduced the weight class in the UFC. She has traded wins and losses over her UFC career, but she has only lost to the very best in the division and she has never been finished. Tecia Torres has quick striking, good pressure and is not easy to keep on the ground. Tecia is a tough out for anyone in the division.

Her opponent, Mackenzie Dern debuted in the UFC in 2018 to much fanfare as she was one of the best BJJ players in the world, previously winning the ADCC world championships and was ranked #1 ranked the world.

She has since gone 6-2 in the UFC and will be looking to establish herself as true top 5 fighter in the UFC.

This is a big fight for 115. Tecia has won 3 straight and will be hungry for her first 4 fight UFC win streak, and Dern will want to get back into the win column to begin her own win streak and get closer to the title.

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Gilbert Burns vs Khamzat Chimaev
Welterweight – 170 pounds

Oh boy. This is the unofficial main event. This feels like a big fight. A really big fight. I have wrote an entire piece on Khamzat and the this fight, Id strongly recommend heading over to “The Degenerate Marks Remarks” and check it out.

There is a lot to digest here with this fight.

Gilbert Burns is #2 at welterweight, and is one of the best P4P fighters in the world. He has, one would assume, the perfect style to matchup against the heavy wrestling style Khamzat brings. And he has only lost the champ at this weight! But it is Khamzat that is the 6-1 favourite!

The hype and intrigue surrounding Khamzat is hard to describe and summarize. He really does have the championship aura to him already. But is almost more than that? It is the unknown of how good he may truly be. What if he runs through Gilbert? Are we really just going to assume he is going to then do the same against the #1 P4P fighter in the world!? But what evidence would we have that would say otherwise?! And then do we turn our sights on to 185!? Where is Khamzats ceiling!?

We will find out a lot about Borz on Saturday, but I suspect we will learn what many already, including myself, believe to be true. Khamzat Chimaev is here to take over. So get ready..

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Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan
Bantamweight – 135 pounds
Championship Fight

The rematch! We get to run back one if the most controversial title fights in UFC history as Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling are set to meet in a rematch of their contest from a little over a year ago.

Aljo has not fought since, and Petr Yan got a win over Cory Sandhagen to win the interim title in one of the best fights of 2021.

Aljo’s inactivity, and the way the momentum began to shift in Yans favour in their last contest is really playing into the lines with this one.

But regardless of what the betting lines are saying, this is a supremely interesting fight. This MMA at its absolute best. The two best in the world imposing their will

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Chan Sung Jung
Featherweight – 145 pounds
Championship Fight

Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski returns for his 3rd title defence against the fan favourite, Korean Zombie.

Alex won the title in a tightly contested bout with Max Holloway. And his first defence came against the same person and the fight was won in the same fashion, a very close decision win.

And after 10 rounds between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, it was Alex who left as the champion – but fans were not convinced. Many, including myself, felt the best in the world was still Max Holloway. So Alex was technically the “undisputed” champ, but fans were not ready to give him that same recognition. It was still very much disputed.

However, that tone has now shifted after Alex successfully defended his title in an all time classic against Brian Ortega. Regardless of how we feel about the decision between Max and Alex, there is absolutely no doubt who the undisputed Featherweight Champion is.

Alexander ”The Great” Volkanovski’s title reign is officially underway, and he is quickly establishing himself as one of the very best fighters in the world.

Alex and his go forward style will have a very fun style matchup against the fan favourite and action fighter, Chan Sung Jung, aka The Korean Zombie. The Korean Zombie earned his nickname being an absolute wild man. But to be an effective ”wild man” in the UFC, you need to also be a talented fighter. Which The Korean Zombie absolutely is. He has a really well rounded game, and despite what the betting lines may tell you, he will be a danger on the feet. And he can threaten you with submissions.

Volk is obviously the rightful favourite here. And it is unlikely that Zombie can win a decision. But he will he a threat the whole fight to pull out a finish.

if you do not know, now you do know

UFC Columbus – Bets

Bruno Souza ML -125 (55.59%) – 1u

Better more experienced fighter. Better striker. And more willing to mix it up with takedowns.

David Dvořák ML -125 (55.59%) – 1u

Fight is close. But David Dvorak should be the more physical fighter, and guessing that will be the difference. Higher likelihood to hurt his opponent.

Aliaskhab Khizriev RD 1 -130 (56.52%) – .5u

Don’t over think this one. Khizriev is a destroyer. Multiple 1st round finishes, against much tougher opponents.

Viacheslav Borshchev ITD +125 (44.44%) – .5u

Going with the momentum of Slava Claus. He is also the more experienced fighter where this fight is most likely to take place, on the feet.

Danaa Batgerel ITD +150 (40.00%) – .5u

I think Gutierrez might be a little overrated, and Danaa is super dangerous. I think he’ll find Gutierrez’s chin.

Sara McMann DEC +350 (22.22%) – .25u

I could see her wrestling stealing two rounds. Was gonna bet on a split at +1200 but chickened out.

Curtis Blaydes ITD -170 (62.96%) – .5u

Curtis will be the one to prove his place among the best at 265. I think he will have a lot of time with top position, and 25 minutes will be a long long time for Daukaus to try and survive..

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes PARLAY -179 (64.16%) – 4u

First leg of the parlay chain!

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny PARLAY +112 (47.17%) – 3u

Adding in Magny to the chain..

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny – Askarov – Borschev PARLAY +321 (23.75%) – 3u

Throwing in Slava and Askarov

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny – Askarov – Borschev – Souza – Batgerel PARLAY +1202 (7.68%) – 2u

Adding two of my favourite value picks

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny – Askarov – Borschev – Souza – Batgerel – Dvorak PARLAY +2243 (4.27%) – 1u

The final addition to the full chain!

Khizriev –  Borshchev – Askarov – Blaydes PARLAY +160 (38.46%) – 3u

Adding in a side chain to hedge some plays!

Khizriev RD 1 – Magny RD 3 or DEC – Blaydes ITD PARLAY +351 (22.17%) – 1.5u

Taking a healthy flier on these props.

Fiorot DEC – Khizriev RD 1 – Batgerel ITD – Borshchev ITD – Magny RD 3 or DEC – Blaydes ITD PARLAY +4469 (2.19%) – .1u

The long shit this week! A measly 44-1. Should be a gimme, amirite..

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if you do not know, now you do know – UFC Columbus

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UFC Columbus
Event Preview

We got more fight nights hitting the road! And it is going to to be tough to top the last event, but we still have a lot of good fights and some serious talent on this card.

The show is headlined by heavyweights, but the card is built on the back of the flyweight divisions. Male and female! And this card is built weird. I alomst like the prelims better than the main card.

Lest dive in!

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Matheus Nicolau vs David Dvorak
Flyweight – 125 pounds

Why does the UFC do this. These are two of the highest ranked fighters on this card and they are buried on the prelims. I understand neither of these guys have huge names. But you can’t help but wonder if it would maybe help if they were featured higher up the card!!

Flyweights are always some of the funnest fights on the card, and that is especially true when they are two of the best, which these two are. They are both well rounded with an ability to grapple and have some clean striking. Should be a good one.

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Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot
Flyweight – 125 pounds

Manon Fiorot is one of the few legitimate potential title challengers at women’s flyweight. She won her last bout, but she didn’t impress in the way many of her backers expected her to. She will get another chance to make her case for a future title shot against someone who has been in there with the champ in Jennifer Maia.

Manon is a really strong and athletic fighter, which is what is needed to truly challenge Valentina. But she also has an extensive martial arts background, and her strength and athleticism makes her dangerous on the ground. She is one of the few true prospects at this weight class, look forward to seeing how she looks.

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Chris Gutierrez vs Batgerel Danaa
Bantamweight – 135 pounds

I absolutely love this fight. Two legit prospects in the sports best division. Chris Gutierrez has quietly established a respectable record of 5-1-1 in the UFC, winning his last 2 in a row. He will try and pick his shots from the outside and has some solid grappling.

Danaa, has been deading people in his last few contests. He will be coming into this contest winning his last 3 fights via 1st round TKO. He has some lighting quick, and powerful striking. He may be someone to keep an eye on.

Big test for both these guys. Should be fun.

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Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France
Flyweight – 125 pounds

God the UFC drives me crazy! Why is this not the co-main. Why is this not the main event!? This is a legitimate title eliminator!

Kai is 6-2 in the UFC, but one loss came to Brandon Moreno via decision, and his other loss was that crazy fight against Royval where he almost won via TKO! Hard to hold that against him. If there was ever a darkhorse that existed – it is Kai at 125. He has looked so good in his last few outings. The betting lines are really loving Askar and his wrestling, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kai catch his chin.

You can probably guess what kind of fighter Askar Askarov based purely on his name. And you’d be right if you were to make that assumption. But that isn’t meant to take away anything from his ability or his danger to his opponents. It is reasonable to assume once Figgy and Moreno are done fighting for the 7th time, he could be the betting favourite against either of them. Askar is going to be a hard puzzle for anyone in this division to solve.

This is the best fight on the card. I am so annoyed it’s not one of the top two fights.

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Matt Brown vs Bryan Barberena
Welterweight – 170 pounds

Do you like violence? Of course you do!

And that is why you, and every other cage fighting fan loves Matt Brown. And – he is making his return to his hometown. Reasonable to assume someone is going to get hurt reeaalll bad..

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Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus
Heavyweight – 265 pounds

This is a fight between two really talented heavyweights, trying to stay relevant in the reinvigorated heavyweight division.

All of a sudden the UFC heavyweight division is full of talent again. And neither of these guys can afford to fall further down the rankings. They need to pull some wins together.

Blaydes has kind of always been earmarked for the top of the division. A big young athletic wrestler who has tough style to beat. But – he fights at heavyweight, where anyone can find a chin and knock you out. And that has been the story of Curtis Blaydes career thus far. Every time it feels like he has some momentum, and is getting close to that title shot, he gets KOd. Now, he only has 3 losses, and he is only 31 years old. He has plenty of time to figure it out. But those KOs to Francis’ and Derrick Lewis have taken him off path. Hopefully for him they are learning experiences and we can see him get to that title.

Chris Daukaus started his UFC career guns blazing. Starting out with 4 straight KO wins. But once he fought his first “test” in Derrick Lewis he suffered the same fate many have before him, including his opponent Saturday, and was KOd.

I like Chris Daukaus, he has some quick hands and there is reason to believe he has some solid grappling (his brother has some slick subs but Chris has no subs on his record). But despite my hypothetical assumption that he can grapple, without a doubt, he will want to stay off his back and try and find Blaydes chin.

Important fight here at heavyweight.

if you do not know, now you do know