Straight Bets

Brian Kelleher has had success in the UFC at 145, and 135. And his losses have come to the top of either division. And I think Bautista is a solid UFC fighter, but I am not sure he is that “upper class” of fighter that Kelleher has lost to. Brian Kelleher has kind of become a classic example of a top 10/15 gatekeeper, and I am betting that Bautista is not quite at that level.

From a stylistic perspective, a 135 Kelleher should be able to out grapple Bautista. And have the striking to keep it close on the feet.

This is tough, as Bautista has been improving. But playing the line and banking on a 135 Kelleher to keep that gate closed.

This was an interesting fight for me. I initially had Brown in my parlays. But as I did more tape study, and more research. I liked the Shayilan line more and more. Shayilan is the far better wrestler, and has shown to be much better conditioned as the fight goes on. Shayilan has done his best work in the 3rd round! Whereas Brown has had trouble lasting. Shayilan also seemed to be finding his groove in the octagon as he got more cage time.

Shayilan will have a heavy grapple approach, and a pace that could be hard for Brown to handle. Like this dog line. The matchup also lends itself to some juicy props.

Like this value. Tafon looks big and scary, and had some KOs early in his career. But at the UFC level he has been more of a neutralizer. He was cruising to his 3rd decision win in the UFC in his last fight before he got caught.

Ulberg is a solid striker, but he was unable to take out a pretty low level opponent in his last fight, and even ended up grappling towards the end of the fight. His hands may be too fast for Tafon, but I think we see Tafon close the distance and make this fight look ugly.

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Main Parlay

A chalk start, but all 3 of these guys are rightful favourites.

Nurmagomedov is the real deal. He can do it all. There is a very good chance he is the future king of this division. He has skills everywhere and is a serious high level athlete.

Rakhmonov is scary scary, and Magny has been showing his age in his last few. I think many are expecting Magny to be able to at least last, but we could see the clash of two very different momentum trajectories manifest itself as quick work for Rakhmonov.

Ok, the main event is interesting. Gamrot is good. Really good. But this matchup is a good example of the shark tank that is this division, Tsarukyan is a bad style matchup for Gamrot. Gamrot is most effective as a grappler, and I expect Tsarukyan to be better here. Overall, I think Gamrot is more of a top 15 guy, and Tsarukyan is someone who will compete for titles.

Adding Morozov and Nckukwi!

Morozov is solid, and is better than his UFC record shows. He also has a favorable matchup for his grapple heavy style. Whereas I think Paiva is a little worse than his UFC record may indicate, and it will be tough for him to establish his striking here.

Tafon is more UFC tested, and should be able to make this fight dirty and nutrealize Ulbergs striking.

Adding Kelleher! Make it nice and juicy

Last add! Smaller parlay this week. But the two dogs still make it juicy.

FULL Main Parlay

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Hedge Parlay

Adding Morozov and Tafon as a individual parlay to hedge the main chalk.

Adding some overs to the hedge parlay to juice it up.

FULL Hedge Parlay

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Prop Parlay

Small prop parlay on these two favourites finishing. Nurmagomedov has been a killer in the UFC, and Rakhmonov has a perfect finishing rate. Banking on that continuing.

Juicing with some more overs!

FULL Prop Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC Vegas 57
LOCKED IN

Straight Bets

I like Guram, he is explosive, athletic and well rounded. He has a lot of combat sports experience and has been a lifelong martial artist. His win against Gamrot will age well. Damir is really good, and another tough fight for Guram in the UFC, but I think he clips him and takes him out. Damir was hurt early in his last fight, and he could have issues with Gurams speed and technical striking.

Gregory Rodrigues via submission is under priced here. Marquez has been easy to take down and Rodrigues is a BJJ ace, that seems to be his easiest path to victory. Give him better than 21% chance he can land the sub. Rodrigues is the main part of my parlay, so will be happy with a win either way. Juicing it up bit with this prop.

Duraev is being over priced. Joaquin has far more experience against high level competition over the last few years. And he will be much more in the fight throughout the whole 15 minutes in comparison to Duraev’s last UFC opponent. Duraev’s last fight was not a great fight, and it does not seem justified to make Duraev such a big favourite after that showing. Especially against someone who has the physical abilities and skills of Joaquin Buckley. Small play, but like the line.

Joe seems to be much more into fighting these days than Cowboy. Cowboy is a very much a fighter that gets in his own head, and going without a win for so long must be shaking his confidence.

Cowboy is a notorious slow starter, and Joe won early in his last fight. Placing a small bet that Joe can get it done early.

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Main Parlay

Bit of a chalky event. But it was still a tough event to lockdown the plays for the parlay. The first event I have not done a hedge parlay in awhile. Keeping this one simple.

Stamann: Stamann is a solid fighter. He has run into a skid, and it can be tough to bank on fighters who have gone winless. But this is a favourable stylistic matchup, and Eddie has not fared much better recentley. Cody is still all in on his MMA career, and Eddie seems to have one foot out the door. He has a full time job! Ok with laying the chalk here

Rodrigues: This is a good matchup for Rodrigues. He spent most of his last fight standing with a high level striker, and many would argue he got the best of those exchanges! And the obvious play here for him is to take this to the ground, this is where Rodrigues is strong, and Marquez has been easy to take down. Like the value here on Rodrigues.

Adding Daukaus and Ramos!

Daukaus: Kyle is a really solid fighter. He has run into some tough opponents and has had some bad luck, but he has a much higher skill set than anyone Roman has beat in the UFC. Guys like Roman Dolidze can be a little scary to bet against, he will grind and neutralize his opponents. But eventually, guys like this run into fighters who have the answer to their grind. And Kyle’s physical strength, strong grappling skills, and superior striking should be enough to take the fight.

Ramos: The younger more UFC tested fighter is in a different category. Ramos is someone who could eventually sneak into the top 10. The 35 year old Chavez is in tough here against the younger more experienced fighter.

Adding in Yanez and Hawes.

Yanez: Kelley could be tough, and if he is able to push forward and bully Yanez, this could be a tough fight for Yanez. But Yanez should be able to find his range and find his punches to take Kelley out, or at least do the damage and steal the rounds.

Hawes: If this becomes a wrestling match, Winn could take it. But it isn’t a wrestling match, and in MMA Winn has not had nearly the same success. Hawes has also showed more progression and better striking in his MMA game. Overall, Hawes should be the better MMA fighter.

Adding a couple dogs. Have these guys in some straight plays, putting them in this part of the parlay to juice it up.

Adding two more picks that are favourites, but lower conviction.

Holland: The hope is that Holland is too fast and his clean and powerful strikes eventually find Means chin. But Mean is a solid wrestler, he has enough striking to survive and use his wrestling to take rounds.

Kattar: Kattar is expensive here, but I do like him. I think he will find his jab and out strike Emmett and as the fight goes, and as the damage piles up, it will be harder for Emmett to find the big KO punch.

Final addition! Adding in Buckley to make it extra juicy!

FULL Main Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC Austin
LOCKED IN

Straight Bets

Ho Kang is fantastic value here. He is an under appreciated fighter in the UFC, and a tough style matchup for Danaa. Ho Kang has the striking to avoid Danaa’s power, and the wrestling to control where the fight takes place.

This line feels like a good example of hype influencing the line, opposed to the abilities of either competitor. There is always a blend of both, hype and abilities, that make the lines. But it seems that it is Dana’s new favourite fighter getting all the attention. And it makes sense, Andre Fialho is coming off two big KO wins and is making a quick turn around appearing on two consecutive PPVs. Whereas it has been over a year since Jake Matthews has appeared in the octagon.

But despite the year long layoff, it is the 27 year old Matthews that is the far more experienced fighter in the UFC. Matthews debuted in the UFC in 2014!! And he has fought some of the best over that time span. Including 9th rank Sean Brady in his last time out.

Matthews has the striking to hang with Fialho on the feet, and has shown an ability win fights with takedowns when his opponents clear path to victory was on the feet.

Like the more well rounded, and UFC tested Matthews in this one at plus money.

This is a bit of a hedge. And taking advantage of a line that is mispriced for a live dog.

Santos is good. But it is hard to bet against one of the best fighters to ever compete in MMA. I’ll have Valentina in some parlays, but I do not love her at -650.

Santos could make this a fight. She is one of the first fighters Valentina has faced that has the physicality and athleticism to keep up. And Santos has a well rounded skill set, she will be capable grappling and standing. Santos has some real power on the feet, and her physicality makes her a very effective grappler. But Santos’ best case scenario is most likely taking some rounds and squeaking out a decision. She only has one finish in the UFC, and Valentina is unlikely to be the second.

This fight is interesting. I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

I like Glover a lot in this fight. Especially like him as the dog.

Jiri is younger, he is faster, he has the momentum, and it is hard to know where his ceiling is. Typically in these situations I find it best to avoid the unknown – especially when the opponent is like 50 years old.

When you look at this fight on paper, it makes sense Jiri is the favourite. But – the style matchup makes Glover an appealing bet.

This fight is billed as a classic striker vs grappler matchup, and while it is, Glover is no slouch on the feet. He keeps a high guard and can keep you on the back foot with his power and technical boxing. He has hurt guys on the feet many times! In his last fight, he hurt Jan in the 2nd round with a big shot before he took it to the ground and locked in the sub. And Jiri fights like a mad man, he puts himself in danger to land his strikes and has been on wobbly legs in both of his UFC fights because of this. Do not be surprised to see Glover hurt Jiri standing.

Then we have the very real gap that exists in grappling. While Jiri is being that mad man we all love, when he gets close he is often standing straight up, just waiting to be tipped over. Reyes did this in their fight quite easily, he was just too gassed after that first takedown to do it again and was basically a sitting duck. Glover should have no problem landing that takedown, and keeping it there.

Now, the X-factor here is the conditioning of both these fighters, assuming it even becomes a factor at all and the fight isn’t over early. If Jiri is able to stay fresh and evade Glover, his speed and volume could overwhelm the older fighter.

However, Jiri’s pace has seemed to change towards the end of the 1st round in both his UFC fights. Glover has plenty of experience to be comfortable with a longer fight – so I wouldn’t be so quick to give the younger fighter the conditioning advantage. And while Jiri is on a 12 fight win streak, his level of competition over those fights is suspect. His 3 fights before the UFC were against opponents who have not had any notable wins in more than 5 years. And his two UFC wins were favourable matchups, that almost resulted in him getting KO’d.

Overall, I am just not sold on Jiri. Jiri could be the fresher and faster fighter, but there is more evidence he has a difficult stylestic matchup on his hands.

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Main Parlay

After a chalky fight night, we got a tighter set of matchups for UFC 275. But we kick off the parlay with two of my favourite favourites!

Allen: Malkoun has won his two UFC fights chain wrestling and beating opponents who were too gassed to muster any sort of response. But Brendan Allen is a completely different level of fighter, and athlete. He won’t gas out, and he is a fantastic grappler.

Woo Choi: I am high on Woo Choi. Woo Choi has some really technical and powerful striking, and he is someone to keep an eye on if he can figure out how to defend a RNC. Woo Choi has a favourable style matchup against the fellow striker, Joshua Culibao. Josh has not fought or beat nearly the same competition as Woo Choi, and Woo Choi will be the more physically gifted fighter. Worst case, Woo Choi should be able to take two rounds.

Adding Zhang and Shevchenko!

Zhang: Zhang has been the more active fighter, so she has had more opportunities to evolve her game. And she displayed some of that evolution in her last fight against Rose mixing in the takedowns. So there is potential she does that again if she needs too.

And we can all theorize if the layoff is good or bad for Joanna, but typically – not fighting for more than 2 years is a bad thing.

Zhang won the last one, she looks fantastic, she loves fighting in Asia, she seems to be more focused on the title and fighting in general. Basically – I have found a lot of reasons to talk myself into riding Zhang. She will be an important piece to my plays for this event.

Shevchenko: I am still picking Shevchenko, she is near the top of my parlay’s. But I do think Santos could be dangerous. And by dangerous, I mean take a round or two. I have a hard time seeing Santos taking her out unless Shevchenko is sick or something.

Adding in two of my favourite dog picks. Ho Kang and Matthews.

Last piece of the main parlay! Close it out, Glover!

FULL Main Parlay

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Hedge Parlay

First leg of the hedge parlay! Adding some extra coin on Zhang, and playing the over to get a better price on my read for Santos vs Shevchenko, which is that it will be at least competitive.

Throwing in my two dog picks to juice up the hedge parlay odds, and add more stakes to these two reads because I do feel confident in them. And definitely confident in the value.

FULL Hedge Parlay

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O/U Parlay

A chalk O/U parlay.

Maddalena vs Emeev: Emeev has never been KO’d, and Maddalena went the distance in his first fight outside the regional scene. Maddalena is dangerous, but Emeev will be tough to finish.

Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk: I like Zhang in this one, but I find it hard to believe she gets it done in under 1.5 rounds.

Shevchenko vs Santos: I like this value at -220, I do not think Santos will be a walkover. She might even be able to take a round or two! I am still on Shevchenko, but we should get 2.5 rounds out of this fight.

Adding two more.

Teixeira vs Prochazka: Already have a good amount on Glover ITD, but it is unlikely that this goes long. In the last 5 years, Jiri has one fight that has gone more than 10 minutes, and that one still ended in round 3. And on Glovers 6 fight run to the title, only one fight went the distance.

Fialho vs Matthews: Fialho loves the first round KO, but Matthews has skills on the feet, and has never been TKO’d on the feet. I also think Matthews wrestles early. I like this one going more than 1.5 rounds

FULL O/U Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC 275
LOCKED IN

Straight Bets

I like the dog line here. Rinat is the UFC new comer, and it can be hard to know just how good some newcomers are. But from what we do know, he looks to be a wild/sloppy striker and has not faced any high level competition. But he is the heavy favourite..

Rinat is riding the waive of a big knockout on Dana’s looking for a fight against a former UFC fighter, Eric Spicely. But that still does not tell us much. Spicely is 2-7 in his last nine and he just lost in 90 seconds to a fighter with a record of 5-4.

Andreas is far from a world beater, and his previous losses have come via TKO, but this also means he has a clear path to victory. Take Rinat down and grind him. And if he lands the takedown, like he has in his last two UFC fights, the +1400 sub prop will be in play.

I am happy to play this dog line in a very chalky event otherwise.

Another UFC newcomer fade. I was not overly impressed with Silva in her DWCS fight, she looked to be on her way to losing a decision before locking in the sub.

These two have a similar style, and we could see them trade on the feet, but I think we see Botelho mix it up as Silva did not display much in the way of takedown defence in her last fight.

The fight is close, so taking the fighter with more high level experience at plus money.

I like Jairzinho in this fight. Happy to bet him at plus money here. Jairzinho has the high level kickboxing experience and will have 25 minutes to get inside and land a big punch. And if it doesn’t ultimately end in a KO (seems unlikely), he will be more likely to take the rounds with more damage.

Don’t love the line for a finish, so just playing it safe with a ML bet.

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Main Parlay

Alright, its a chalky event! I really liked Jackson and Evloev when they were both around -200, its a bummer to not get them in this parlay before the lines blew up, but its one of the trade offs for my process, and it is something I will continue to evaluate!

But all 3 should (hopefully) have similar paths to victory with their heavy grapple approach in the small cage.

Adding in Trizano and Menifield!

Trizano is a really solid UFC featherweight, he has clean striking and solid grappling. His opponent has never faced anyone nearly as good, and the style matchup favours Trizano.

This Menifield – Mozharov fight is strange. The shenanigans surrounding Mozharovs record is one of the weirdest things to happen with a UFC newcomer in a long time. If you did your tape study, you would have felt that something was off. It is hard to know exactly what is going on. But it all should lead to the same conclusion – Mozharov is a questionable professional fighter.

Alright, Ode and Jeff are the last main components to my parlay plays this week!

I see some chatter on gambling Twitter about fading either of them, but I just don’t see it.

I like Jeff and Ode a lot in these fights. The reads for both fights are similar. Even the lines are basically the same!

Both their opponents like to come forward with strikes, and Jeff and Ode have both shown an ability to counter strike very effectively. They are both the more dynamic and dangerous fighters. And both have the higher ceilings. They may not be able to take their opponents out, but I expect these lines to look generous in hindsight.

Alright getting into the juicy long shot territory!

Adding Rozenstruik and Gravely.

I see many picking Munoz Jr, and his high level grappling is tempting against a wrestler like Gravely. But the other side of that BJJ vs wrestling matchup is the difficulty Munoz will have in taking the fight to the ground. Gravely – who is a lifelong TKD practitioner – could use his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet where he should have a clear advantage over 15 minutes. Then maybe he can use his wrestling offensively late in the fight once a sub will be harder for Munoz to catch. Small stakes, but curious how this read looks in hindsight.

Last leg of the full parlay!! Adding a couple dogs I like.

FULL Main Parlay

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Hedge Parlay

First leg of the hedge parlay!

Second leg of the hedge parlay!

Last leg of the hedge parlay!

FULL Hedge Parlay

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Prop Parlay

Parlaying up two of my highest conviction ITD plays!

Adding Blanchfield to finish to make it extra juicy! JJ is tough, but Blanchfield looks to be the real deal, and she has been really close to finishing her last couple fights. Without actual evidence of being able to finish UFC fights, its hard to have too much conviction in Blanchfield finishing, but there is value in this line. So want to play it a bit.

FULL Prop Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week! We almost hit last week!! We’ll get it one of these days.
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC VEGAS 56
LOCKED IN

Omar Morales ML -145 (59.18%) – 2u

I like this value. Morales has proven to be UFC caliber. And Medic feels like the ultimate can crusher.

Medic started his UFC career looking fantastic. A 1st round KO on the DWCS and a 1st round KO in his UFC debut. But he looked completely out of place in the Octagon against Jalin Turner. Medic will look like a world beater against fighters that do not have an answer for his aggressive striking, so he can stack up KOs. Hence, the ultimate can crusher label.

Morales is not as good, or as big as Jalin Turner. Morales is moving up from 145, but I do not think he will be a can for Medic to crush. And as the fight goes I am betting Morales proves himself to be the far more polished fighter.

Chidi Njokuani ITD +100 (50.00%) – 2u

Ok – I am going to be much more selective about the props I play going forward. But I like Chidi a lot in this one.

Dusko has had success in his career as a striker, but Chidi will be far more polished on the feet. Dusko’s UFC/DWCS wins have come from his physicality and wearing his opponents down. But he is an undersized MW, and Chidi will be the one with the physiciality advantage. Dusko’s path to victory will be to put Chidi on his back, but he will be much harder to take then Duskos other UFC wins.

These guys will be throwing, and anything can happen in a cage fight. Dusko could end up on top and steal two rounds, but I feel good about Chidi establishing his striking game and continuing his finishing streak in a favourable matchup.

Santiago Ponzinibbio ML +115 (46.51%) – 2u

I am playing the value here. I believe Michel Pereira to be one of the more overrated guys in the division. He will have a hard time beating Santiago in a stand up point fight.

Santiago is a ways away from his days as a contender, but he has been a dangerous fighter since his return. Happy to back Santiago at this price.

Almeida – Njokuani PARLAY -153 (60.47%) – 6u

First chain of the parlay! I am a big Chidi backer. And Almeida should prove to be the rightful favourite in this one. Porter has no UFC KOs, and has attempted 20 takedowns in his UFC career, which is not what you want to do against a guy like Jailton.

Almeida – Njokuani – Holmes – Park PARLAY +267 (27.25%) – 2.5u

Adding in Holmes and Park. Holmes is decent, but his opponent has been away for a long time, is way undersized and has never beat anyone close to UFC caliber.

And I like Parks ability to neutralize his opponents against a guy like Andres.

Almeida – Njokuani – Holmes – Park – Morales – Ponzinibbio PARLAY +1251 (7.40%) – 1.5u

Adding in two of my favourites who I already have ML bets on.

Almeida – Njokuani – Holmes – Park – Morales – Ponzinibbio – Martinez – Holm PARLAY +2614 (3.68%) – 1u

Final leg! I do like Martinez and Holm, but I don’t love them at these prices.

Holmes – Park PARLAY +121 (45.25%) – 3u

Small side chain!

Holmes – Park – Martinez – Holm PARLAY +345 (20.37%) – 1u

Last leg of the hedge parlay!

Martinez DEC – Holmes ITD – Almeida ITD – Park DEC – Njokuani ITD – Ponzinibbio DEC PARLAY +6678 (1.48%) – .1u

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

Andre Petroski ML +290 (25.64%) – 1u
Andre Petroski DEC +575 (14.81%) – .25u
Andre Petroski RD 3 +2200 (4.35%) – .1u

I can not believe this line. My conspiracy theory is that this is the UFC sticking it to the Nate Diaz with this matchup.

Petroski is a wrestler! He has a spotty record, but he is solid. And a bad matchup for Nick Maximov. Maximov could steal two rounds with his grapple heavy approach, but I think Petroski could turn the tables on him and be the aggressor in the grappling exchanges, and I expect him to be better later in the fight.

Tatsuro Taira ITD +110 (47.62%) – 1.5u

It is tough to have too much confidence in someone who has not yet debuted in the UFC, but I believe the Taira hyped to be justified. And his opponent is also yet to prove himself in the UFC. And has faced much worse competition. And he looks to be the worse athlete overall. Like this bet.

Allan Nascimento SUB +525 (16.00%) – .25u

Small flier on Allan via sub. Hadley has been grapple heavy in most of his fights, and Allan has 13 subs on his record. Allan has the octagon experience and I expect him to fresher late. Like this value.

Amanda Ribas ML +146 (40.65%) – 1u
Amanda Ribas SUB +750 (11.76%) – .25u

Katlyn is solid. She can point fight her way, and even grapple her way to 3 round decisions against really solid fighters. But she has a tough time hanging with some of the better fighters and athletes in the sport. And while it is admirable to be able to do what she does, she is not dangerous or physical enough to take her opponents out. She has a clear athletic ceiling.

I think we are forgetting how good Ribas is. She is easy to love, but she is a lifelong martial artist and really solid athlete. We remember the Marina KO, but Ribas dominated that 1st round with nearly 4 minutes of control time. She grabbed a nasty body lock and pulled her easily to the ground.

Much is being made about Ribas moving up, but she looked good in her lone UFC flyweight fight! Winning via first round sub against PVZ. And Katlyn is not the most physically imposing flyweight.

I expect Ribas to be healthy and strong at flyweight, and her suppior grappling and physicality could make the sub line here look like a steal. We’ll see. Hopefully this read ends up looking as good as it feels now!

Ion Cutelaba DEC +600 (14.29%) – .75u

I think we see D1 Ion here, he could take Spann out early. But I think this fight could be a grind. And that grind will favour D1 Ion.

Also like when sizeable favourites have DEC lines like this.

Cutelaba – Rakic PARLAY +115 (46.51%) – 4.5u

First leg of the parlay chain! I think both of these guys can at the least, survive on the feet. But hopefully they both wrestle. Similar fights for both.

Cutelaba – Rakic – Taira – Grant PARLAY +288 (25.77%) – 2u

Adding in Taira and Grant. Like Taira a lot more. But have a singles bet on him already. I will also add Taira into a parlay later without Grant.

‘Araujo vs Lee CMPTL 2RD’ – ‘Maximov vs Petroski Over 1.5’ PARLAY -145 (59.18%) – 4u

Parlaying up two likely overs. Doing this parlay independent first.

Cutelaba – Rakic – Taira – ‘Araujo vs Lee CMPTL 2RD’ – ‘Maximov vs Petroski Over 1.5’ PARLAY +391 (20.37%) – 3.5u

Like this parlay.

Lee – Ribas PARLAY +343 (22.57%) – 1.5u

Small independant parlay.

Cutelaba – Rakic – Taira – Grant – Lee – Ribas PARLAY +1616 (5.83%) – 1.25u

Continuing the chain of straight picks parlay

Cutelaba – Rakic – Taira – Grant – Lee – Ribas – Petroski – Nascimento – Hill PARLAY +48573 (.21%) – .5u

Last leg of the main chain!! Got some dogs in here so pretty juicy line.

Taira ITD – Rakic ITD PARLAY +443 (18.42%) – 1.5u

Parlaying up two of my fave ITD props.

Taira ITD – Rakic ITD – Lee DEC PARLAY +1149 (8.01%) – .75u

Adding in Lee DEC to a mini prop chain.

Petroski DEC – Taira ITD – Lee DEC – Ribas SUB – Grant ITD – Rakic ITD PARLAY +131329 (0.08%) – .1u

The long shot this week! And it is a juicy one..
Good luck!!

Journey Newson ML +125 (44.44%) – 1.5u
Journey Newson TKO +600 (14.29%) – .75u

This will be boxer vs boxer, and I believe Journey to be the better boxer. He also has more experience and looks to be a better athlete. Like this line, and the TKO line is way off. Had to put some extra units on it.

Melissa Gatto ITD +350 (22.22%) – .75u
Melissa Gatto RD 3 +1600 (5.88%) -.25u

Throwing a dart here. And also breaking one of my rules. Tracy Cortez is a solid chain wrestler, and Gatto has showed some weakness to this style of fighter. This clash of styles can easily result in the wrestler taking 2 rounds, especially in a women’s fight where finishes are rare. So it is a general rule of my mine to avoid these if I don’t like the chain wrestler.

But – the reason I am throwing a dart, is I think Gatto is the better athlete, and the more dangerous fighter. And if I’m right, the way this most likely looks is Gatto overwhelming a tired Cortez late and taking her out. So taking a chance.

Brandon Royval TKO +400 (20.00%) – .75u

Ok, I was not sure what to do with this fight. I like Royval, he is dangerous everywhere a fight can go. But Schnell is good, and the line isn’t reflecting that. However – there is value to be had in this TKO line. +400 is way off. Every opponent Royval has faced has tried to wrestle him. And look at some of those opponents! Kai Kara-France, the champ Brandon Moreno! Both stood with Brandon and decided they were better off grappling.

Also, Royval and Schnell have some common opponents. Schnell got hurt and KO’d by Bontorin and Pantoja, while both those guys wanted to grapple with Royval. Royval has more subs on his record, but that does not reflect the reality of what he is capable of. Schnell has proved to be a little chinny, and has only landed a handful of takedowns in his UFC career. They’re both solid grapplers, but there is a big gap on the feet. Like this line a lot.

Randy Brown ML EVEN (50.00%) – 1.5u

I like Randy Browns speed and versatility here. Khaos has the big punch, but the hope is that Brown knows to avoid that and can mix it up. Randy Brown also looks like he is getting better really fast. Like him here at even money.

Donald Cerrone TKO +210 (32.26%) – 1u

Ok, I am breaking another one of my rules. And banking on Cerrone being better based on what he is saying, not what he has done. But I think we know Cerrone well enough to get a sense of where his head is at. And he looks to be in a great place mentally. And this is a good matchup for him, Cowboy is solid on the ground, and should have the advantage on the feet. I have a good feeling about Cowboy here, I don’t usually bet based on “feeling” but like this bet.

Chandler vs Ferguson OVER 1.5 -170 (62.96%) – 1u
Michael Chandler DEC +225 (20.00%) – .5u

This is a hard one to read. Tony is a wild card. And it is hard to not let the emotional investment we all have in him affect our judgment. We want to believe Tony can be better, and the time away will help him. But Tony looked like a fighter whose best days are behind him in his recent fights. But, he has still been hard to finish. Chandler could starch him in a few minutes, and I’ll happily add the win to my parlays, but that seems unlikely. I could see this fight begin with both fighters feeling each other out, and the Chandler by decision line feels like good value here.

Rose Namajunas TKO +300 (25.00%) – .5u
Rose Namajunas RD 4 +1500 (6.25%) – .1u
Rose Namajunas RD 5 +2000 (4.76%) – .1u

Styles make fights, and Carla’s wrestle heavy approach is a tough style matchup for Rose. Which is part of the reason why this fight is so compelling. And throwing a flier on Carla via decision, or Carla via split decision is tempting. But I believe the value to be in this Rose via TKO, with some darts on winning the late rounds.

Carla is going to take Rose down, but Carla will need more than that to win the fight. In almost every other regard, Rose is the better fighter and athlete. Rose has the better fight IQ, she is much faster, she has the 5 round experience, and her striking is light years ahead. I could see Carla taking a round or two early with her wrestling before she the damage starts to add up. 5 rounds will be a long time for the gap in speed and striking to not become a difference maker. Be careful though, fading wrestlers is always tough.

Oliveira vs Gaethje UNDER 2.5 -165 (62.26%) – 2.5u

The weight miss from Charles threw a wrench in my plans. I was going back and forth, but began to lean towards Charles. The gap on the feet is not as wide as some would believe, and while Gaethje is a solid wrestler, he is not a great grappler. Even if Charles can’t take him down with a double leg, he will find ways to grab a hold and work his BJJ.

But the weight miss makes him hard to bet on, and not just because of the actual miss. It is all the shenanigans that surrounded it. Having to go back and weight cut, but still miss. It all has to mess with your mind.

Just making the safe and easy bet and betting the under 2.5.

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler PARLAY -105 (51.22%) – 6u

First leg of the main parlay. I am a little worried about Chandler. But that may be my love for Tony speaking.

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler – Royval – Namajunas PARLAY +298 (25.13%) – 3u

Next leg. Fairly solid sized bet.

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler – Royval – Namajunas – Newson – Brown PARLAY +1569 (5.99%) – 1.5u

Adding two more to the chain!!

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler – Royval – Namajunas – Newson – Brown – Gatto – Cerrone PARLAY +5555 (1.77%) – 1u

Last leg of the main chain!!

Royval – Namajunas PARLAY +104 (49.02%) – 3u

Hedging with a small side chain parlay!

Royval – Namajunas – Newson – Brown PARLAY +755 (11.70%) – 1.5u

Last leg of the side hedge chain!

Rodrigues ITD – Fialho ITD PARLAY +265 (27.40%) – 1.5u

Two of my favourites to finish parlayed up.

Rodrigues ITD – Fialho ITD – Royval ITD – Namajunas ITD PARLAY +1815 (5.22%) – 1u

Adding a two more favourites to finish!

Newson ITD – Rodrigues ITD – Royval ITD – Cerrone TKO – Namajunas ITD – Fialho ITD PARLAY +28690 (0.35%) – .1u

The long shot this week! Good luck!!

Tatsuro Taira ITD +110 (47.62%) – 2u

I am high on Taira. He has some real skills, on the ground and on the feet. And he looks to be a serious athlete. He is fast and powerful.

Taira is only 22, and making the jump to the UFC is a big deal, but he does have experience against real guys. I expect Carlos to be much slower, and he does not have the fight ending skills Taira does on the feet or on the ground.

Gabriel Green ML -130 (56.52%) – 2u

Gabriel Green has proven himself to be a legitimate UFC fighter. Beating Philip Rowe will look very good in hindsight. Green has some power and clean technique on the feet, and the ability to take it to the ground if needed. He showed great fight IQ to take that win in his last fight, those leg kicks won him that fight, and I think they will be a difference in this fight as well.

Yohan Lainesse will be slower, and the longer the fight goes, the harder it will be for him to remain dangerous. I am not sold he will be able to stick around.

Francisco Figueiredo ML +110 (47.62%) – 1u
Francisco Figueiredo ITD +275 (26.67%) -.5u

I think Francisco is much better than people are giving him credit for. He seems low volume on the feet, but he is fast and elusive. And he is a legit BJJ black belt!

Lacerda was aggressive in his UFC debut, and looked dangerous in the 1st round against a good opponent. But Molina was never truly in danger. And Lacerda has not proven he can beat a true high level professional, or even go 3 rounds. I am not sold.

Krzysztof Jotko DEC +190 (34.48%) – 1u

When someone shows you who they are, believe them. Jotko wins decisions point fighting on the outside. Betting he does that again. Like this line.

People love GM3, and he is on a good run. But the guys GM3 has been beating on this run are far less experienced than Jotko. And definitely far less skilled grappling.

Jotko will be very aware of where GM3 is dangerous and should be able to avoid the ground. GM3 being able to submit Jotko seems like a stretch, IMO. That requires a big gap in skills to actually land the sub. I don’t see it.

Dawson vs Gordon DRAW +5000 (1.96%) – .1u

I love trying to find a good spot to bet a draw. Draws are typically set at +6600*, and that is a probability of 1.49%. If you can try and pick your spots you get a lot of kicks at the can to be profitable.

Dawson fought to a draw in his last fight after having nothing left in the 3rd round. And Gordon has won the 3rd round in his last 3 fights, including a 10-8..

Low risk high reward. Asymmetrical bet. Love it.

*As I was typing this post it changed to +5000. Going to leave rest of what I wrote.

Andre Fili DEC +130 (43.48%) – .5u

Fili is another guy who wins a lot of decisions. Not overthinking it. Fili is the rightful favourite, Brito might not last the 15 minutes. But I’ll have Fili in some parlays, so I will be happy with a win either way.

Andrei Arlovski DEC +110 (1.49%) – .5u

Once again, if someone shows you who they are, believe them. If Arlovski doesn’t get taken out, he usually wins a decision. Betting on that outcome.

But I will say, the line is showing Jake Collier some respect for a reason. Don’t let that body trick you. He has some skills.

Marlon Vera ML +103 (49.26%) – 2u
Marlon Vera TKO +400 (20.00%) – 1u

Ok, I was originally going to avoid this fight! I thought it was too close. Too tough to find an edge.

But the more I watched their recent fights it really felt like there was value in Vera. Rob Font went the distance with Aldo, and has gone the distance in 5 of his last 6 fights. If Marlon can’t take him out, the ML bet becomes -200. I can live with that getting Marlon TKO at +400. Font going 5 rounds with Aldo is also kind of deceiving. Aldo was credited with 2 knockdowns, but Aldo hurt him a bunch. Aldo was being measured, as he has been recently. But it really felt like the finish was close a few times.

Rob Font is a solid boxer, and has the standup to beat really good UFC guys on the feet. But Vera is better. He is more dangerous and more versatile. And, Vera has actually been the more effective grappler in his recent fights. Vera has a bunch of subs on his record. Font has not shown that same level of effectiveness grappling in the UFC.

And even though Rob Font has more experience in 5 rounds fights, the longer fight favours Marlon Vera. Vera is one of the best examples of a fighter who gets better as the fight goes. Marlon had a flashy 3rd round front kick KO of Frankie in his last fight, but he broke Frankie before that. Marlon would not stop coming forward. And Font is a fairly similar to Edgar.

Then there is the true X factor – Momentum.
Font just took the worst beating of his career, in the the biggest fight of his career. He has lost before, but never in a fight with stakes that high. This deep into his career, finding out the gap is that big between him and the very best in the division, you have to wonder what that does to his confidence. Rob will be 35 in June, and has been a pro for more than 10 years. Can he catch up to a guy like Aldo? Who is basically the same age.

Missing weight was a bad sign. He is not a particularly big bantamweight. And he didn’t look overly confident in that faceoff with Vera after the weigh ins.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but Marlon Vera has fantastic momentum right now! He has never looked better! He ended his win against Davey Grant with a 10-8 round, and Davey Grant is solid! But then he front kicked KO’d the legend Frankie Edgar.

I like Vera a lot here. We’ll see if Font can find his form again!

Romanov – Taira – Fili PARLAY +113 (46.95%) – 4.5u

First leg of the parlay.

Romanov – Taira – Fili – Jotko – Arlovski PARLAY +459 (17.89%) – 2.5u

Next leg!

Romanov – Taira – Fili – Jotko – Arlovski – Green – Figueiredo PARLAY +2012 (4.73%) – 1.5u

Adding in Figueiredo instead of Vera to hedge my plays a bit. Have more on Vera in a ML bet and some parlays.

Romanov – Taira – Fili – Jotko – Arlovski – Green – Figueiredo – Vera PARLAY +4251 (2.30%) – 1u

Adding in Vera to finish the parlay!

Jotko – Green PARLAY +166 (37.59%) – 2u

Parlay hedge. Side chain.

Jotko – Green – Arlovski – Vera PARLAY +919 (9.81%) – .75u

Second leg of hedge parlay.

Jotko DEC – Taira ITD PARLAY +509 (16.42%) – 1.5u

Favourite value props parlayed up. Also a way to play these two together and hedge Arlovski a bit.

Jotko DEC – Taira ITD – Vera ITD PARLAY +1971 (4.83%) – .5u

Adding in Vera to this props favourites.

Taira ITD – Green ITD – Jotko DEC – Gordon v Dawson DRAW – Arlovski DEC – Vera ITD PARLAY +775402 (0.01%) – .1u

The long shot this week! We got another draw in there! So another big long shot this week.

Also, I got Gordon vs Dawson at +6600 in the parlay. Before I was able to make the straight bet it changed to +5000 =(
Good luck!!