FULL UFC Vegas 60
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Fun card, and a juicy card for betting.

Jackson is being way undervalued here. Jackson will be a threat on the ground, and if the two grapplers cancel each other out, the fight becomes more of a toss up on the feet.

I feel good about this Barriault bet. I am really curious to see how this one plays out, I am dying to know if I am missing something. Because this line makes no sense to me. This seems like the perfect fight for Barriault and his grinding style. Barriault is far from a world beater, and he is no lock by any means. But he has a far better than 37% chance to win this fight!?

I am not sold on Pyfer. And this is definitely a winnable fight, but he is not worth that price. Just playing that the fight could be close enough to go 7.5 minutes at plus money. With a small flier on the dog via TKO, which he has done in all of his pro wins.

I love this Chidi Robocop fight. Highly competitive and a fun stylistic matchup. I have loved to ride both of them in the past, but Chidi has a different type of momentum right now. He has beating good fighters clean. 4 straight TKO wins. He has the strength to avoid the grappling and the precision and power to land on a chinny opponent.

I don’t usually like to bet on fighters who have not won recently. But Sandhagen barely lost to arguably the two best in the division, and he is still young. And he has a fantastic mindset. He is absolutely still someone worth betting on. Cory also has a favorable matchup here. Both are dangerous strikers, and will be a knockout threat. But Sandhagen and his creative counter striking will be effective against the boxer who likes to walk forward and land power shots.

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FULL UFC 279
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Oh, boy. Take a deep breath. We did it. We got here, UFC 279 is a few hours away and the card looks a little different than it did a day ago. But it somehow feels bigger now. Somehow, the MMA gods found a way to make Tony vs Nate happen. Almost like it’s the opposite of Tony vs Khabib. The universe used its forces for good! And we will enjoy it.

And amongst all the commotion I ended up breaking my record for units bet! Getting to a clean 30. I typically like to keep it to 25 or less, with a emphasis on less as of late. But I like some reads on this one, and it feels right to get a little crazy with this one.

Heili Alateng – I have a decent amount riding on him. He can lose and I can still have a good night. But a win from him early could set me up for a big night. I think he is far more versatile, and has more experience against better competition. He also has the footwork and defensive striking to avoid Anheliger’s big punch. I am putting a flier on him wrestling, as that is his easiest PTV, and locking in a sub. Wouldn’t usually put this much on a guy that is high up on my parlay, but like the value here, and he can act as a hedge against my top line if it busts.

Danyelle Wolf – like this one I like alot. Sizeable bet considering the odds. She is a far better athlete, and has some serious power.
Often in MMA, experience will be the difference between two close competitors. But other times, there is a major mismatch in athleticism. And experience becomes redundant. Extreme example – Brock Lesnar. It did not matter that Heath Herring had been a high level pro for nearly a decade. Brock Lesnar is a different type of person, who has achieved a high pedigree in a sport that translate well to MMA. And I think we are in a similar situation here with Danyelle Wolf. She is a serious athlete, and was a high level boxer. And she is big. I think at worst, this fight looks like a coin flip and this line looks like a steal. But I think she could starch Dumont and hurt her bad. Wolf is a big athletic women who is going to be hard to takedown. Then the gap on the feet will play out.

I think both Collier and Cutelaba could grind their way to decisions. And like Collier at +1100 to finish a tired Barnett late.

I like Jingliang and his momentum here. He looked great against his last two opponents who weren’t freak wrestlers from Chechnya. And both his last two opponents were really solid stand up fighters, and The Leech stopped them.

Khamzat by sub is the better value. small flier. He is in my top line, so any win I will be happy.

I like Aldana a lot. She is great value at that price, makes the top line work well. I could see her stopping the fight, but she should do enough damage to take two rounds at the least.

Also – NDA mother friggers. This is a winnable fight. He has spent more time at this weight recently. And I just want to be backing him tbh. He could cash the final leg of a 73-1 parlay, and I have a tiny ML play on him. Just some fun.

But if your looking to take this fight serious from a betting perspective, I’d like to make a recommendation – don’t. Both these guys are wild cards. It is hard to back Tony since has barely won a round since he dropped Justin Gaethje at the end of round 1 of their fight. And Nate is in a similar boat, winning one fight since tapping Conor out at UFC 196. But at least he’s had some good moments.

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FULL UFC Paris
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We are back after a week off! And it’s a historic one as the UFC will hold an event in France for this first time.

Nowadays, it can be easy to forget that there was a time when the UFC was not allowed in many places. If you go back to the really early days of Zuffa owning the UFC, that was one of the first hurdles they needed to overcome! Being allowed to even host events in places! Mark Ratner was one of the most important first hires for that reason.

So it is pretty cool to still be experiencing these big first events. Events that mark the first time the sport has been legal in that city. It really is still just the early days of MMA. We have so much room to grow yet. And this UFC Paris event looks to be another reminder of that. First event in Paris, and another sell out. Another gate record. I hope we can appreciate just how nuts that is.

And it is a pretty fun card! Lacking on true high quality talent, in fact, there are potentially some pretty low quality fighters making an appearance for this event. More than usual.

but. Jourdain – Wood, Imavov – Buckley, Makdessi – Haqparast (love my bet on this one), and the main and co-main are all great fights. Whittaker and Gane are two of the best fighters in the world, and they are in fun fights. So lots to like. And we have had a week off!! I am ready! Lets go.

Good luck, degenerate’s.

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FULL UFC 278
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I like this card. Some fun matchups, but I had a tough time getting reads on most of the fights. Too many unknowns and unproven UFC fighters on the prelims. And I am making a point to be more selective on the bets I am placing. UFC 278 seems like a good event to practise some discipline.

Jose has a great matchup on his hands. His takedown defence is some of the best in the history of the sport, and his lighting quick stand-up game will be too much over 15 minutes for the flat-footed Merab. Jose looked rough on the scale, and when you’ve been around as long as Jose, there is always a risk that they will show up and all of a sudden look old. But I am happy to back one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time, who looked like a world beater his last time out. Merab has not proven to be that caliber.

Hey Leon, I am sorry to say, but – “You’re not that guy.”
I like Leon, and he is one of the best fighters in the world. But he is still two tiers below Usman. Usman will be the bigger risk on the feet, and will be happy to change levels. Have a lot of faith in the P4P #1 fighter in the world here.

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FULL UFC San Diego
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After a week off I am back. Hurts to miss last week and all those favourites, but we are looking to capture some of that same chalky magic this week.

I like Ode and his momentum. He could be a dark horse at 125. Really looking forward to this one. Nam has been tough to finish, but Ode will most likely be too much for him.

Dominick Cruz has been tough to count out, he is the poster boy for comebacks. So his inactivity is treated and looked at differently than others. But Dom is getting old, and he has looked old in his recent fights. Whereas Vera is surging. Dom could out point and out wrestle Vera, but I forsee Vera’s speed, aggressiveness and damaging strikes being too much for Cruz over 5 rounds. I expect this to be Vera’s true coming out party, and the moment Cruz realizes he is no longer in the title picture.

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FULL UFC 277
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Back on the horse for a PPV! I like this card, and there are some fun lines to play.

Like the value on Lewis and Pantoja.

Lewis has seemed to find his ceiling in the HW division, but he has still proven to be a higher level fighter than Pavolich, who is on a 3 fight win streak. But two of those wins are against fighters who are no longer in the UFC, and the third is currently riding a 3 fight losing streak, and is about to get fed to Jailton.

Pantoja might be one of the most underrated fighters at flyweight. A true darkhorse. Have him juicing up some parlays.

Magomed by decision has been a cash cow. Going to keep riding it.

Placing a sizeable bet on Pena. I like riding the winner of the first fight in these rematches. And I can juice it up betting she either steamrolls again early, or Nunes can out up a better fight and Pena wins via decision. Love the value on Pena in general though.

No bet on the co-main but I lean Kai-Kara France at these prices. FWIW.

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FULL UFC London
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I have really been struggling lately LOL. Bad bets. Too many bets. Galaxy braining every line. It is crazy how gambling – like everything in life really – is all between the ears.

I am now making an effort to go back to my regular routine from before I started tracking. Tracking my bets has lead to a sense of obligation to try hard. And I do believe firmly in hard work, but there came a point where it became apparent my preparation was detrimental to my bets. And this over preparation has been apparent in the amount of bets I have been playing!

Tape study, and knowing who you are betting on will always be important – but I am making an effort to simplify my process until I can wrack up consistent units.

Makwan and Pearce should be similiar enougn to cancel each other out for the first few minutes. Then Makwan will fade, and Pearce can take him out late. Or just score a sub. Small fliers anyways.

I like Gus at these prices. And I get why he is a dog, it is hard to have conviction in someone who hasn’t proven to be a winning fighter recently. And Krylov has been hanging with some of the best while Gus has mostly been away from fighting. But I like Gus in this style matchup. Gus will be fresher over 3 rounds, he will have the better striking, and he will be difficult to takedown. Gus is one of the more underrated wrestlers at 205.

Tommy Aspinall Aspinall Tommy Aspinaaallll
At +500, against the wrestler, Curtis Blaydes.
gimme that shit all day.

Chalky parlays this week. Keeping these way more simple going forward as well.

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FULL UFC Long Island
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Ok – short post this week. I post this graphic of my full locked in bets at the end of every post. But this week I am only posting this.

Few quick thoughts,

I like a lot of the dogs on the card.

Ricky Simon is a tough style matchup for Shore. Simon will be tough to grapple, and Simon has showed some quick hands as of late.

I like Matt Schnell. He has a solid overall game, but he has had a suspect chin over the course of his career and Sumudaerji is the kind of guy that will test it. I have the under play in my long shot, and I do lean Schnell at these prices, so playing the value of the Schnell sub prop, as that is his best path to victory.

Michelle Waterson is way mispriced here. Everyone loves Lemos’ power, but Waterson has a strong stand up game and has been fighting the best in the world most of her career. Lemos was blown out in her last fight, and I do not see her staying near the top of the division for long.

Ortega is the higher level, more well rounded fighter. He has got some solid striking, and his submission game is the obvious path to victory here. He is solid value here.

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Straight Bets

This is a fantastic fight. Truly high level. Shame it is buried at the bottom of the card.

The line is rightfully close, and Said will be dangerous everywhere the fight goes. But Ronnie will quick on the feet, and it will be his chain wrestling that I believe will be the difference maker.

Like Gore in this fight. Decent value on the ITD prop here against a guy who does not have a ton of success against top level competition.

Banking on Said continuing his 1st round finishing streak against an aging opponent who is also a favourable style matchup. Silva de Andrade came from behind in his last fight to steal the win, but usually getting beat bad for a round is a bad sign of where a fighter is at. And Said is much better than Sergey Morozov.

Caio will have the more well rounded game, and his grappling should ultimately be the difference maker. Caio has some solid, and improving stand up, but his best path to victory is taking this to the ground. But don’t think the gap is big enough for Caio to get the finish. Armen is solid and beat a good fighter in his last fight.

Caio ML is not great value, but like the value in this decision line.

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Main Parlay

Backing two surging prospects against the aging Brazilian UFC vets.

Another Nurmagomedov another absolute monster prospect. Happy to have him in my top line here.

RDA will need to try and grapple to win this fight, but Fiziev is good at measuring distance and has some solid TDD, sitting at 95% over his 6 UFC fights. Which should mean we see a lot of this fight taking place on the feet, where we will see a clear gap in technique, power, and speed play out over the 25 minutes. RDA is notoriously hard to finish, but this crossroads fight could be a breakout performance for the 29 year old Rafael Fiziev.

Adding Gore and Mullarkey!

Like being on the Gore side at those prices, and he’s a nice addition to parlay.

I like Mullarkey’s game here. Johnson has been around for a long time, and he has developed a reputation as a power puncher, but he only has 2 TKO wins since 2014. One of them was in his last fight against Alan Patrick, and the other was to Dustin Poirier in 2016! He has a solid overall game, but Mullarkey will be tough to take out, and his chain wrestling will create openings for his power. Mullarkey is the younger and more hungry fighter, I don’t love him at these prices, but feel good about adding him to the parlay. Will be hedging him a bit though..

I really like rounding out the main part of the parlay with these two.

Onama is legit, and he should have a serious size advantage here, but this line is crazy. A short notice fight like this can be dangerous.

On Lawrence already, so laying out the risk moving him down the parlay.

Getting juicy adding two more expensive favourites.

It is hard to back Shevchenko riding a two fight losing streak, but her two losses are against much better competition than her opponent in this fight. And she has a great style matchup facing Courtney Casey. Casey will like to keep it on the feet, but Schevchenko could have the advantage here, and she will definitely be more likely to take this to the ground, somewhere Casey has struggled.

Borralho is still unproven. He has not faced any high level competition so this line is a little rich.

Final add! Getting juicy with a dog at the end.

I think we could see Zahabi land a nasty counter against a guy like Ricky Turcios who likes to walk forward and throw.

FULL Main Parlay

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Hedge Parlay

Taking the most juiced line and parlaying with two of the best value picks. Feel confident in all 3, and like this lines value a lot.

This gets to be a pretty juicy line adding these two. Both solid faves, we’ll see how it goes.

FULL Hedge Parlay

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Prop Parlay

First leg of the small prop parlay.

Think Lawrence vs Kakhramonov will be competitive. We should get more than a round and a half out of this fight.

Said should get it done, juicy it up a bit throwing it in a parlay.

Adding Mullarkey ITD to round out the prop parlay.

Mullarkey won a decision in his second pro fight, and has finished every other win since then. Good value adding this line to the parlay.

FULL Prop Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC Vegas 57
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FULL UFC 276
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Ok – short post this week. I post this graphic of my full locked in bets at the end of every post. But this week I am only posting this. Won’t have time to do a full post this week, leaving on vacation tomorrow!

Few quick thoughts,

I really like Jalin Turner. And I think he is really good. But Brad Riddell is a bad style matchup for him. Riddell will be able to hang with him on the feet, and is more likely to mix it up with a takedown like he did in his last fight against Drew Dober. And we are getting the more established fighter at plus money! Happy to be on the Riddell side.

Same thing with Strickland. Good value. Well rounded game.

I am confident in Volk. He has been cruising, and Max has taken some damage in his last two fights. If the Max Holloway that fought Yair Rodriguez shows up on Saturday, Volk might be able to take him out. We would all love to see that Max take the belt back. But Max has some miles on him, he will have a harder and harder time cutting the weight, and he lost the first two times to Volk! Like Volk a lot in this one.

Izzy vs Jared might be boring.. But Izzy should be better everywhere this fight goes. His timing and speed will be hard for Jared to get past. But they both have power! Could get spicy at times.

Also,

Ian Garry is fake news. Happy to fade him with a solid fighter like Gabe Green.

The line for the Suga vs Pedro fight is interesting. This could be Suga Sean O’Malley’s coming out party. But Pedro is good! He has been top 10 for a long time, and has some dangerous tools that could be trouble for Sean. This is a big step up for Sean. But on the other hand, Pedro is 35 and on the back half of his career. He has 1 win since 2019 and could be passing his spot in the top 10 to the young star. Low conviction bets on this one, and also playing both sides.

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