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Last card of the year! And I am pissed that its happening at the APEX. There are some real compelling matchups on this card, and it deserves to feel like a big event. But regardless, I will enjoy it! Because it is the last card for 4 weeks.. It is going to be hell! So I am going to appreciate looking forward to an event.

Betting with some strong conviction this event. I had room to maneuver to keep the top line of the PRP to two fights, but I feel good about the EV and the 3 fighters. And this is a much bigger PRP than usual, so I would like to assure I still cash a solid profit if I only get my strongest conviction picks right. But I can still pay for extra lines of the PRP, and the total units at risk is similar to other events. So an extra juicy top line made sense this time around. We’ll see how it looks in hindsight.

Rinat should at worst be able to grapple his way to taking two rounds. Battle will be a danger on the feet, but he does not typically have fight ending KO power. And the gap between the striking is much closer than the gap in their grappling. Rinat is good value here.

This fight will most likely play out on the feet, and Kape is the more experienced, dangerous and polished striker.

Albazi taking this favourable matchup on short notice makes him the rightful favourite. Costa will be dangerous, but Albazi is the real deal. Should be an easy day for him.

Michal may get taken down a few times early in the fight, and Brundage will be dangerous early. But Michal’s pace will eventually be too much for Brundage who has displayed a very limited gas tank and ability in general.

Jake Matthews has been around for a long time, but is still coming into his prime. He looks to be someone who is turning a corner, and he is in a favorable matchup in this one. Better striker and will be able to take this to the ground if needed. He worries a little me if this goes late, but the gap between these two will be big enough where I don’t think that will be a factor.

Erosa and Caceres are similar in many ways. Long lankey strikers who love to grapple and throw out subs. But Erosa has proved to be more dangerous against better competition as of late. And he looked incredible his last time out.

Said vs Said is an amazing fight. But Nurmagomedov has fought and beat the much better competition and has the more well rounded game. Kakhramonov will want to establish the same wrestle heavy game that won him his last fight, but Nurmagomedov has an ability to grapple and there will be a bigger gap in their striking. Nurmagomedov’s size will also be tough to handle. He is good value at these prices.

Damir is good value. He has really solid defensive grappling, and will be much better at finding his striking range than Armen. Happy to back him at plus money.

McKenna may end up a step behind to the faster athlete and better striker. But if she makes this dirty, and if she can get this to the ground she will look like good value. And if she does get the chance to establish a top game, the sub or g&p finish could be there.

Strickland can overwhelm his opponents with volume and his walk forward style, but this will play right into Jareds power and counter striking. Over the course of 25 minutes I like Jareds chances of finding Seans chin, or making enough of an impact to take some rounds. And not to mention, I trust Jared. Sean is a weirdo and a wildcard, he is much harder to trust.

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This isn’t the typical star studded UFC PPV. I think the UFC’s goal was to get Jon Jones on this card, but that didn’t happen. So we settled for Jiri vs Glover 2, which isn’t even happening anymore after one of Jiri’s cornermen Tj Dillashaw’d Jiri’s shoulder. But there is a different type of star power on this card. This card is filled with budding stars, waiting to break out. Or stars that are at risk of dying out before they reached their full potential.

This card has some crazy vibes and it has been challenging to find solid reads. Many of the favourites are unproven or even on losing streaks! And many others are unpredictable and in tough fights against live dogs. Lot of “value traps” out there. This card really tested my discipline, so ended up betting a little light. I tried to maximize the EV of some of the reads I felt better about. But this will be an interesting one to revisit after the fact.

I am itching to fade Paddy. And that has nothing to do with the Ariel situation, I just believe he has a ceiling, and he is going to hit it pretty quick in the UFCs 155 pound division. Jared is tough, but this is a bad matchup against Paddy. Paddy will be quicker on the feet, and he should control Jared fairly easily on the ground. Don’t think Paddy’s momentum is stalled just yet. But it’s coming soon.

I like Darren here. He is one of those stars that is at risk of never realizing his full potential, but Darren is still young. He is still hungry, and he seems to be in great spirits this week. Those pre-fight interviews only mean so much, what they have actually been able to do in the cage means much more. And despite Tills losing streak, he nearly KO’d Brunson before getting sub’d, and was in a competitive fight with Robert Whittaker. And DDP has many natural gifts, he has great momentum and confidence right now. But his striking fits perfectly into Till’s counter striking game. I believe Till proves there are levels to this, and he is still someone who is in that upper tier.

We are about to enter the Ankalaev era. This guy is the real deal. He has crisp disciplined striking, and the ability to take this to the ground which will take away Jans power and key to winning. He was the easy choice for the top line, and if this plays out on the ground that sub prop will be good value.

Billy Q – I think his pressure will eventually be too much for Alex. Alex is much better being the hammer than the nail, and Billy Q is the guy that will keep you on your back foot all fight. Billy Qs jab and leg kick will be a problem for Alex all fight. However, Alex looked fantastic weighing in at 145 and could be the much more physical fighter in this contest. Which will favour Alex as he will be level changing and threatening from the feet and the mat. Plus he has real fight ending power. Tough fight to call.

Buckley – I think he is the far more polished and versatile striker, and has a greater willingness to mix it up with takedowns. It also appears that Buckley is improving at a greater rate than Curtis. But Curtis is so dangerous, and Buckley is maybe improving, but he is definitely a wild card.

My read is these two should be the faves, but the conviction is low.

I had Rosas Jr in my parlays, but I took him out. Couldn’t have a teenager in my parlays. I like him, and he looks to be a real serious athlete. But he is GREEN, he is still in high school! And his level of experience is very limited, he has only fought two fighters with a winning record. And the second was on his DWCS bout that he won by decision. He won, but he looked sloppy. Aggressive and athletic, but sloppy/green. Perrin is a great first matchup in the UFC, he is a fairly limited athlete and fighter, but has been in there with some solid competition. There are no easy fights at 135 in the UFC, so we will know pretty soon how real this kid is at this age. I like him, but far too unproven to back him.

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Alright, I like this card a lot. It is a lot of fun, and I feel great about some of these lines. UFC Orlando will end up being the most units I have bet on any card.

Istela Nunes has some pretty high level experience, and was a high level Muay Thai competitor. She’s fought and beat some good pros in ONEFC, and in her two UFC fights she showed well, especially on the feet; where this fight is mostly likely to take place. Her opponent does not have the same level of experience, so if this is a stand up battle, Nunes is a good bet at +250. Small flier in general, and smallest bet of the card on her by TKO as well.

Marshall is the favourite vs Rojo, but he is GREEN. Really green. But he is an young hungry fighter who will get better quick. And he will have the pace of a young strong athlete. That alone can take you far in low level MMA. But, green is green and this is the UFC. Rojo is a borderline UFC himself, but he could be dangerous. Worth another small flier. Also playing the fight ending in my prop PRP.

Ok, I like Rowe a lot here. He looks like someone who is rounding a corner, he has a ton of natural abilities, and he is huge. Evidenced by the fact that he missed weight, again. It is concerning when a fighter you’re backing misses weight, but part of the read here is his size and strength. He didn’t look too bad weighing in. He is just massive. Happy to back him at these prices.

What am I missing here with the Tai – Pavlovich fight? At worst, this is a 50/50 brawl. Tai has done well for himself as of late. Showed to be more than a meme brawler, had a good competitive scrap with Gane. There are many reasons Tai could be an underdog against a 16-1 30 year old, but Pavlovich isn’t much more than a power puncher like Tai. He had two failed takedown attempts in his UFC debut, but hasn’t even tried another one since. And his striking is not particularly polished. So once again, I go back to a 50/50 brawl, at worst. At best Tai is the better and more experienced fighter in this brawl.

The main. Another one. What am I missing here? I get that Holland is the younger and more active fighter. Which means he could be faster, stronger, fresher. And Holland has the ground game to mix it up with Wonderboy! But Holland is not known for his wrestling. His last takedown was 5 fights ago, against Derek Brunson. And in the last 10 fights he has a total of 3 takedowns, and the other 2 were against Charlie Ontiveros, who was a little out of his depth physically in that fight. So if a large portion of the fight ends up being on the feet, how does Wonderboy not run away with it? This is Wonderboys world! One fighter in basically his entire life has found his chin. If this fight ends up taking place mostly on the feet, Wonderboy as a dog will look like a great line.

Put Levy in my top line. He does not exactly meet the “good” or proven fighter criteria, but he is close. I think worst case he is a solid UFC guy. Whereas Valdez does appear to be close to that level. The style matchup favours Levy as well. He will have the counter striking and ability to manage distance to be safe on the feet, and his willingness to grapple should give him an easy PTV.

JSP and RDA both will have the striking to be at least even, if not better. But the grappling will be a big difference in both fights. Elkins especially is easy to fade. He looks to be on his last legs, and will have a hard time with the grappling and pace of JSP.

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Another Apex show. And this one is rough. But hopefully we can eek out some units.

Natalia Silva looked great against a solid opponent in her UFC debut. Her opponent in this fight will have a similar game plan to her last opponent. Jasudavicius had landed 6 TDs and scored over 14 minutes of control time in her UFC debut and DWCS fight. Silva had a perfect TDD and was the much cleaner striker. Think we see a similar style fight here against Tereza Bleda, but the gap could be wider. Bleda has not fought any true high level comp yet. Small ITD play, and have her in my second PRP line.

Alright, I have talked myself into being a Vanessa Demopoulos backer here. Think the gap on the ground will be far too great. They could end up canceling each other out as neither are true world beaters. But the gap in their striking is much closer than the gap on the ground, favouring Demopoulos.

Oh god. I am doing it. I am backing Chase freaking Sherman. Sherman is well, we all know… but he has tons of experience, and will be happy to strike it out with the UFC newcomer. In low level HW MMA anyone can get taken out, but if nobody finds a chin early, this could get sloppy. And Chase freaking Sherman and his familiarity with that grind could prove to ….. have some value…. (yeesh, that felt gross to type.)

I like the value on some of these overs. Kennedy and Ion are both wild, but I think they may get into some grappling exchanges, and it will be a little sloppy. Which could mean someone gets caught in a sub, or they just cancel eachother out. I think we see at least 7.5 minutes of sloppy grappling, or stalling out on the feet. Ion will be happy to grapple, and could see him take a round or two. Will take a flier on him by DEC at +650. But they are both wild, they could drop each other in the first minute.

Backing Spivak here. Lewis is always a danger on the feet, but the whole world knows this. And Spivak will have the smaller cage to close the gap and wrap Lewis up. Spivak is trending up, and Lewis is on a slide. Like Spivak at -200 here.

This could be a messy card. I try and avoid “bad” unknown fighters, hard to do here.

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Fantastic card, but a little dangerous for betting.

Like the style matchup for Blanchfield and Petroski, both are a little too unproven to normally be in my top line, but believe they both have potential, and their competition has a limited ceiling.

I like Zhang, but the value is off. So trying to profit on each side. Have Zhang in the meaty part of my parlay, also have a seperate parlay simply playing the O 1.5 rounds. Also added in Carla by DEC, that line has too much value to pass up.

Julio Arce is great value. Julio is an underrated fighter, and his TDD and superior striking should be enough to get it done.

Good luck everyone! I have has some tough events these last couple events. Hopefully we turn it around this week.

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Ok – another Apex show. It isn’t just that it is lame without fans – it’s also that these fights do not contain the best fighters in the world. Plain and simple. They are solid no doubt! But objectively – very few will be considered contenders at any point in their career. The majority of the card would lose to their counterparts in multiple MMA promotions.

We watch the biggest leagues and promotions to watch the best compete. Not every contest is Connor McDavid vs Auston Matthews, but even if you are watching the two worst teams in the NHL, you know there is some integrity and consistency in the quality of the athletes.

MMA does have a different appeal. Because, well, you know. They fight. In a cage..

And truth be told, MMA promotions resemble something much closer to the WWE. So that is the world and model we need to look to. Which is fine tbh, because god knows I love a jobber.

But at this point in my MMA fandom, I really am only interested in watching the best compete. Because when the best in the world are competing – there is no sport like MMA. And that is what I am interested in watching. And I’ll watch the shit out of it!

I actually think this is what Dana White intuitively understands more than any other promoter in history. And is what makes the UFC special.

And don’t get me wrong, I am a firm believer that MMA and the UFC have never been better. We have a whole new calibur of athlete starting to come around on a regular basis. People from hard places who have been training their wholes lives. So it is amazing times to be an MMA fan, no doubt.

But man…these Apex shows sometimes.. yeesh. What are you doing to us Uncle Dana. Just make these 10 Contender series fights or something. Idk.

BETS!!

Ok, so this Madsen – Dawson line makes me think of Fluffy vs MAB. Where I really liked the line on MAB, almost too much (definitely too much lolol). At the time it was making me wonder if I was missing something. Well as it turned out, Fluffy absolutely smothered MAB with his speed, pace, and athleticism. Wonderful performance! And it was evident right away what I had missed.

This Madsen line is giving me similar vibes. Like, its too good to be true, what am I missing here. Dawson fades, and wins by grappling. Madsen, the Olympic silver medalist, should be the better grappler. And despite being much older, has proven to have the better gas tank. He controlled a very tough Vinc Pichel for 4 minutes in the 3rd round of his last fight, and he out struck Clay Guida in every round, which takes the ability to keep a solid pace at the least.

Now this level of competition might not tell us as much as I think, and Dawson could be too fast early in the fight and take some rounds. We’ll see!

I think Mario Bautista very well could be one of those fighters that is a threat one day. I have come around on him as of late. Looking forward to seeing how he looks. But I think he wins this on a bad day pretty easy.

Lastly – this card was helpful in terms of helping shape how I want to build my bets going forward. I have honestly been all over the place the last few months. Way over thinking it. But I think this card has helped – more on that later.

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Good luck, degenerates!!

No write up this week. Thin card, but hopefully we can edge out some profit!!

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UFC 280 is here! One of the deepest cards we’ve had in a long long time. There are too many compelling matchups to list. The cumulative wins of the main card fighters is crazy. This is the best MMA has to offer, and it is going to be a treat.

Yan vs Suga is being underpriced on the finish. I think whatever happens, the fight won’t end up being close. We may have a slow first round, but I think eventually, one fighter will realize they have a step and will make use of it quick.

I can see Sean being too fast, and better at staying in striking range and hurts Yan. Or Yan’s pressure and level changing is too much and he takes Suga out. So like the value ‘does not go the distance’ line at +130. And adding Yan late into my parlays. Like Yan, but like some others more.

Styles make fights and I think Aljo is a great matchup for TJ. People seem to forget that TJ is a wrestler. A better wrestler than anyone Aljo has ever fought in the UFC! And even against lesser competition, Aljo does not have great takedown accuracy, sitting at just 21%. Now don’t get me wrong, he is the champ of the best division in the sport!! His grappling is what got him there, as he is relentless and does have a crazy top/control game. But I think TJ will have the ability to keep it on the feet, where there will be a much bigger gap. I think TJ can hurt Aljo at some point over the 25 minutes and take him out. And I am not worried about TJ being slow. This guy is the ultimate professional, and I will not worry he is slowing until he shows us proof that is happening. We will see!!

And I am riding Charles. I try not to fade chain wrestlers, and that Dagestani grappling is just something else. But I am riding with Charles’ confidence and momentum. And lets not forget he has some damn good grappling himself! Islam might be the only guy who will be willing to go to the ground with him, we shouldn’t be so sure this won’t prove costly over 25 hard minutes. But the striking is where it gets interesting. Charles has found this tremendous power and technique on the feet, he has taken out strong strikers with his hands! This fight is a true coin flip, so I am happy to be playing the plus money side.

I think Gamrot is the real deal. He has been far more active, and he is a much better athlete. I’d guess Gamrot ends up winning the majority of the grappling exchanges, and will be better on the feet. This fight could be a grind, and these two are similar in a lot of ways, but I give Gamrot the edge in almost every aspect of the fight.

I’ve been a big Fiorot backer as soon as she got into the UFC. She has some real skills, and most importantly, also has the strength and athleticism to keep up with championship fighters like Valentina Shevchenko. Chookagian will have a difficult time finding an edge here. Fiorot will be better at distance, and she will be much stronger in the clinch.

I am still not completely sold on Borralho. But he looks to be good enough to at least be a fringe top 15 middleweight, and does look to have some potential to be more. But I do not think the same can be said for Muradov. He seemed interesting for a time, but he is a striker that seems to have average striking at best. And limited grappling and gas tank. Borralho should have a clear PTV on the mat, just the same as his last fight against a striker. And should have the striking to avoid getting hurt, he may even end up with an advantage late in the fight.

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Short post this week.

I like Tatsuro Taira. He is a fantastic prospect. But CJ Vergara is being underpriced here, he is a very solid pro, and proved that in his last fight. The missed weight is always a wild card as it typically means two things, he either depleted himself after not preparing properly. Or he is just too big. I am leaning towards him being a little too big for the weight class, which could favour him a bit here.

I have faded Malkoun a couple times in the past, I do not think he is a great fighter overall. But he had a solid showing against BA in his last fight. And I really do not think Maximov is any good. These two grapplers will most likely find themselves in a war of attrition and I think this favours Malkoun.

+800 for any favourite to win by decision is too juicy to pass up. I know why the Wright – Todorovic fight is priced the way it is. I am a big fan of following the trend a betting on what fighters have done in the past. But I am putting a small flier on these freezing each other out early.

My top line of my PRP is built to hedge the main event. Like when that is possible.

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I like this Super Secret Apex show from a betting perspective. Which is good, because there isn’t much else to like. But it feels like forever since we’ve had UFC fights, so I won’t complain..

I am riding Guido/fading Costa. Guido is old AF, and does not have a great record. Regardless of the matchup, it is hard to have too much conviction in someone like Guido Cannetti. But – I like the value here. Guido has faced much better competition, and does have some dangerous striking. There is a better than 15% chance that he catches Costa, who has lost his last two fights via TKO.

Riding another boomer in Aleksei Oleinik. Using him as a hedge, and a bit of a supplement to my parlays. He has a good matchup here. Latifi is no spring chicken himself, and he has not won a fight since 2018 (he absolutely did not beat Boser), and most of his success in the UFC has come at 205, and he will have a tough time utilizing his grappling against the dangerous Oleinik. I got a little aggressive with Oleinik, but it can be a high reward move, and if the other lines in the parlay cash I still have a good night. Will be interesting to evaluate this after the event. I may have galaxy brained this one.

I like Randy Brown and his physicality in this one. He has been looking much better in this recent run, whereas Trinaldo has been showing his age. Big divergence in momentum here. But Trinaldo has still proven to be tough to finish, so like the value on the Brown DEC line.

I think Mike Davis has potential to be a serious threat at 155. And by serious threat, I mean someone who will beat most who do not belong. He could be a top 15 or so, but that division is tough. I do not feel the same about SlavaClaus. I thought we might have something in him, but he was exposed by Diakiese. I do not think he will be in the UFC for too long.

Dern and her grappling in the small cage should prove to be the difference. Putting a small flier on her by decision. The sub is her best bet, and I will be happy with any win. But like the value on the DEC prop.