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Chalky card, but I am back to paper betting for this one. Still looking to find my right balance. Feel close, yet so far. But that is the game!

It is a pretty good card. The main event is elite and high stakes.

I think there is a better than 50% chance Krylov vs Spann is a bit of a grind. Both guys are vulnerable and dangerous, but this fight being extended for more than 7.5 minutes is being underpriced, imo. If that is the case it is most likely Krylov grinding it out, and if THAT is the case, Krylov DEC will look like +EV at +600.

Said Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista are both very good fighters, fighting solid underappreciated fighters. Both are being set up to shine and come away with a finish. Nurmagomedov will have a solid grappling advantage, if he chooses to wrestle the sub could present itself. And Mario is getting so good so quick, and Guido is like 55.

Volkov can have some solid TDD, but when he is in a fight where he can’t stop the takedown, he has troubles. And Romanov has some of the best wrestling in the division. Romanov has some vulternabilties, he gassed in his last fight whereas Volkov has plenty of experience going 3 rounds in the UFC. But Romanov gassed after blowing his load in 10-8 beating, and then struggled keeping pace at altitude. That altitude is no joke, every fighter was laboured if they got extended more than a round. I am not going to hold that against him, and I am happy to back the fighter still trending up with a clear path to victory.

I am mostly avoiding the main event. I can’t get a confident read in this one. Yan should have the grappling to neutralize Merab’s but Yan’s skid concerns me. And in his last fight against Sterling he was controlled for large portions of the fight. Merab is not Sterling, but he is close! They are legit BFFs and close training partners. This camp has had success against Yan. And Merab is on an absolute tear, both guys could be finding new levels here. Yan going down, and Merab heading up. We will find out!

FULL UFC 285
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UFC 285 is filled with some of the best talent in MMA, and at 285 we will see high level talent at every stage of a UFC career. Bo Nickal making his debut, Shavkat looking to become a title contender, Garbrandt trying to remain relevant, Jones cementing his legacy as the GOAT. Throughout the whole card, there is some really fun and serious talent in important fights.

Ricci’s implied win probability is roughly 75%, which means after the vig Penne’s win prob is close to 30%! Ricci seems like solid value here. She is a 28 year old life long martial artist entering her prime. Penne is 40 years old and needs to grapple to win her fights, and when she has issues taking it to the ground she has difficulty doing enough to win. Ricci is a far more decorated grappler, she the much better athlete, and will have a fairly wide advantage when they grapple. At worst, they are even on the feet, but Ricci is a Muay Thai black belt and with that athleticism comes power. Feel good having her in my topline, and taking a relatively sizeable bet on her via ITD.

DDP is good, he is young and strong, and someone with really good momentum, but Brunson has a style that can steal fights. If Brunson’s chin can take him through the fight, his wrestling and high level experience could steal 2 rounds. Think he is a solid +EV play here.

We are witnessing history with Bo. Enjoy it.

Ok – Gamrot vs Turner. This would be a good example of a Hardcore Fans Main Event. Such an intriguing and high level fight. Tuner seems to be quickly becoming the lightweight darkhorse, winning 5 straight fights via finish all within 2 rounds. However, Gamrot is a new level of opponent. A new level of opponent with a style that will be difficult for Turner to deal with. Before I go further, Tuner is good and dangerous. You need to be careful having conviction fading dangerous fighters on winning streaks. With all that being said, Gamrot is a championship caliber fighter, who is one of the best wrestlers in the division. Turner has shown a vulnerability to wrestlers, he was taken down fairly easy by Jamie Mullarkey and his last lost came to Matt Frevola in a fight where he was taken down 4 times. I have spread my risk away from this fight a bit, but playing the ITD with Gamrot to add to my conviction. Think he eventually breaks Turner on the ground.

Neal vs Shavkat is interesting. Really interesting. This is an interesting test for one of the sports best prospects in Shavkat Rakhmonov. Neal has some solid TDD, and real crisp striking that could test Shavkat if he doesn’t get this to the ground easily. Shavkat is capable on the feet, but Neal is a new test. I am playing both sides, using the big favourite to juice up some parlays late, but also hedging those lines with a line that seems to be good +EV in Neal ITD.

Valentina should be the more versatile striker, and worst case if Grasso’s boxing is too much, Valentina will be more than able to take this to the ground.

There are many questions surrounding Jon Jones. But from a capping perspective – can you really fade the GOAT that has a clear PTV with his wrestling – as he has stated many times. Can you trust a guy gone for 3 years who arguably lost his two last fights against fighters who are 1-8 since? Typically, regardless of the style matchup, I put a lot of weight on what they have proven in their fights. And Jon has proven to be one of the best ever!! But more recently, he has only shown lackluster performances. I am putting more weight in his entire body of work, but I am being careful. He has not looked good in his recent fights. That means something.

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Short post. Off this week. But still doing the work to get the bets in.

Aliev not only kind of looks like Khabib, he fights like him too. Alves has had a tough lineup to begin his UFC career, but there are no easy fights at 155. Alves is good, but Aliev will win 2 rounds against many good fighters.

Solecki should have an easy PTV. Take him down and tap him out. There is a big grap in their grappling. Deaton is tough, but Solecki is a different level, exepct him to show that.

Osbourne vs Johnson is a fantastic fight. Feels like a true toss-up, considering the odds. Just do not feel confident betting either side here. Ode has the ability to beat some of the best in the world, but Johnson has the clean technical boxing that could be trouble for Ode. Will play DNGTD in the Prop Parlay.

Canadian on Canadian crime in Malott vs Lainesse. I believe Malott to be the rightful favorite here, he is a far better athlete, and has the more well rounded skillset.

The return of Tatiana Suarez!! Tatiana might be the best female fighter in the world, it is a pleasure to be able to watch her compete again after 4 years away. She has a tough fight here! She is going up a weight class against Montana De La Rosa. And De La Rosa is a little underrated – she has a tough fight on her hands – but she is a solid.

Muniz vs Allen is an awesome matchup. Allen feels like someone who could breakout and crack the top 5 at some point, but Muniz is a tough style matchup for him. Allen will have a hard time keep Muniz off him, Allen is also a competent grappler himself, but what he needs to be is a good defensive wrestler, which he is not. They will end up in scrambles and this will give Muniz plenty of opportunity to catch a sub. If Allen can keep this standing it could get interesting. But Muniz is the guy to back.

Spann is dangerous, always need to be careful fading a streaking dangerous fighter. But this matchup plays well for the Ukrainian here. If Krylov stays safe early and turns this into a grind, this will be his fight. And the grind could make the O 1.5, and the Krylov 4,5,DEC prop bet look like decent +EV.

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We are back at the Apex! There are very few names that will jump out at you, and the card is weirdly built. Some of the fights near the top of the card are the least interesting. But the main event is a high stakes contest, looking forward to seeing how Blanchfield handles one of the best in the world.

Clayton Carpenter has the makings of a fun UFC fighter, but like many his age and coming off the contender series, he is green. His opponent, Juancamilo Ronderos appears to be fairly limited athletically. Need to be careful backing Carpenter as he goes, but this should be a good warmup fight against a borderline pro fighter.

AJ Fletcher vs Themba Gorimbo is an interesting one, every week there is a fight that feels like the line is a focal point. AJ Fletcher is being priced at a great than 70% win probability. I just don’t see it, especially at that price. AJ is still looking for his first UFC win, and his previous wins are against some of the lowest levels of professional MMA. Fighters who are years removed from their most recent professional MMA wins, fighters with sub .500 records. I get the AJ support, it does look like there is some sort of there there, but he has not proven to have an ability to beat UFC level competition. He also has a tough style matchup on his hands here. Themba is far from a world beater, but his physicality and heavy grappling approach could cause problems for the green AJ Fletcher. Worth a shot at these prices.

Jamall Emmers vs Khusein Askhabov is probably the second best fight on the card. Jamall Emmers UFC career is off to a rough start, he lost his debut to Giga Chikadze in a close split decision, and in his third fight he was caught in a nasty heel hook after looking good in the first two minutes of the fight. Emmers will have another tough test in the 23-0 Askahbov. It is difficult to find recent tape on him and he has been away for awhile, but he has some surface level qualities that make him interesting. 23-0, sambo champion, his name ends in “ov”. I may bet the O 1.5 in this one, but other than that, I think I will avoid. Not enough known about Askhabov.

I am putting Bueano Silva in the top line, she is the biggest favorite on the card, and I believe her to be be the rightful favourite. Lansberg will want to strike, but Silva will be more than capable to exchange, and there is a wide gap on the ground.

Nazim Sadykhov vs Evan Edler is one I am looking forward to seeing play out. Both are fairly unproven, but I believe it will be Nazim who proves definitively to be the one who belongs in the UFC. Elder represented himself well on short notice in a higher weight class than he normally competes in, but I think this fight will be a good example of a tough guy who trains MMA vs a professional athlete. Nazim is a much more seasoned martial artist, and it shows in his technique. He will also have the strength and power to dictate where this fights goes. I could see Nazim blowing his load early, and Edler grinding his way to a decision. These UFC newcomers can be less predictable, but I am backing who I believe is more likely to be a competitive fighter in the UFC long term.

Jim Miller vs Alex Hernandez is so interesting. Jim is old and on a win streak. Alex is young and on a losing streak. They both have advantages and disadvantages when you line up their grappling vs striking. I can’t find a line I like, this feels to unpredictable to cap. Looking forward to it though.

This new main event is far more interesting. Andrade is a big step up for Blanchfield. This current version of Jessica Andrade is one of the best fighters in the world. Andrade proved to be one of the most feared strikers in women’s MMA in her last fight against the very tough Lauren Murphy. Andrade absolutely battered her. It was so bad, the fight not being stopped was a topic of discussion online for like a week after the fight. Blanchfield does present a stylistic challenge to Andrade, and there could be large portions of the fight where the bigger Blanchfield is grinding on Andrade in the small cage. Andrade has shown vulnerabilities to grapplers who can outmuscle her, however, that is asking a lot from the 23 year old Erin Blanchfield. Andrade is not a scrub when it comes to grappling, and the gap in their striking will be far greater. I expect Andrade to offer far more resistance to Erins game than any fighter she has ever faced. And as the fight goes, the damage caused by Andrades strikes will eventually prove her to be the fighter closer to the top of the division at this moment.

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UFCs return to Australia will host one of the best fights ever made. While these two have a relatively smaller profile, they are the two best fighters in the world. The card is not exactly what is was supposed to be, there is a full lineup of ranked fighters from that part of the world who were supposed to be in big fights, but sometimes things don’t work out the way you want.

The main event has stayed intact, and ultimately that is what this card is about. This main event. The ability of athletes is always growing in every sport, but that is especially true in a sport as young as MMA. And these two are the absolute best the sport has to offer at this point in time.

Blake Bilder vs Shane Young is an interesting fight. A young unproven fighter on a finish streak vs the grizzled UFC who is years separated from his last win. Bilder is a little sloppy, but he is dangerous on the feet and grappling, and is a solid athlete which means he’ll get better quickly, which is also apparent in his fights. The young streaking fighter is worth these prices.

Mullarkey vs Prado should be an easy DNGTD, Prado is a wild man who likes to swing, and Mullarkey will be happy to greet him with a counter. Prado has never been to a decision, and Mullarkey has only been to four.

KD vs Shannon Ross, KD is the heavy fave, with an implied win probability of around 70% – I’d argue it could be a lot higher. KD lost his UFC debut in a close split decision to a tough CJ Vergara, but he has a lot of potential, a very high ceiling, and a well rounded game. I expect him to be more comfortable in his second fight in the octagon, and I think he has the advantage in nearly every facet of the fight. He is far quicker and more powerful. KD is the more versatile striker and his leg kicks specifically could be a difference maker in this fight. He has an easy PTV if he decides to take Ross down, which he has an ability to do. Main play is that he wins, as he is in the topline of my PRP, but also a small play that he wins this ITD in a low risk high reward parlay.

I keep fading Josh Culibao, but I hope I stop getting burned at some point. Josh is tough, and he has displayed some solid stand-up, especially in his last fight against the seasoned kickboxer, Seung Woo Choi. However, Melsik Baghdasaryan has experience and success at much higher level of striking. Josh could make the fight dirty, and he could mix in some takedowns, but if this is mostly contested on the feet, Melsik will be good value.

Pedro vs Bukauskas and Crute vs Menifield should both end up with some violence. Parker vs Tafa could end up being a bit of a grind, and I like Parker Porters chance to win two rounds if he can stay safe early. Parker is a little sloppy on the feet and will leave himself vulnerable.

JDM has his first real test in the UFC. Randy Brown is solid, his record doesn’t jump out at you. But he has many solid UFC level attributes and has showed some marked improvements over the course of his career. While I do not love the price JDM has got to, he is still the side. And Brown has been vulnerable to a big punch and JDM will offer many of those. You want to respect odds, and lines and all that… but in this one, I think the easy outcome to predict is the likely one; JDM cleans his clock.

Alright, Emmett vs Yair. The interim featherweight title! I really like this line. Emmett is being way overlooked here. Yair’s last real finish was that literal last second KO in 2018! Since then, he almost got finished by Jeremy Stephens, then two years later he got destroyed by Max Holloway, then Ortega gets hurt and now he gets a title shot! And he is the favourite! Emmett has won 5 straight, and 7 of his last 8. IMO – he clearly beat Calvin Kattar in his last time out. Emmett is a wrestler – and he out struck Calvin Kattar! We can not assume Emmett will wrestle, as he has not done so in his recent fights, but it would be a great tool to utilize. At these prices, Emmett is a clear side. I think he could end up being too much for Yair and take him out after a battering, if a big punch hasn’t already won him the fight.

We all love this main event, but another story to this fight is the line. Makhachev has been a pretty sizeable favourite and it shouldn’t be too surprising to anyone. Volk is the one going up, and those size advantages also play into his opponents strengths. However, I believe the real reason Islam is the rightful favourite is the gap in their grappling. We all know this is Islam the grappler vs Volk the striker. But Volk has shown vulnerabilities on the ground. Chad Mendes took him down pretty easily 3 times, and Ortega landed 2 nearly fight ending submissions in a matter of minutes. Islam and the fight style he represents often gets categorized as wrestling, but that is too narrow a term to represent their skillsets. They are true grapplers. Islam has 11 wins via submission, 4 of his last 5 are via submission. He tapped the fighter who many consider the best grappler in UFC history! Charles Oliveira has the most submission wins in UFC – by a fairly wide wargin, and Islam tapped him in 2 rounds. So what does that make Islam!? … the greatest grappler in UFC history! (I am doing a bit, it’s a complicated convo, I know). So the greatest grappler in UFC history will be taking on a fighter from a lower weight class who has shown vulnerabilities in grappling. ITD seems like a solid play here. Now, don’t get me wrong, I am aware I am trashing the number 1 p4p fighter here. Volk is number 1 for a reason, and he will pose risks for Islam. Volk will not go away easy, and if this fight gets extended his pace and speed could be difficult for Islam. But ultimately, I think Volks go forward style will be perfect for Islams grappling approach and the true gap in their grappling will result in a sub for Islam. Could be early? But Volk is tough, could be a few rounds.