FULL UFC 283
LOCKED IN

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First PPV back in Brazil! And it should be a fun card for the fun Brazilian crowd.

I like a lot of lines on this one. Will be interesting to see how I do after the fact.

I put Teixeira in my top line for a couple reasons. First, putting the main event in the top line allows you to hedge if you have some lines intact going into the last fight. Second, I think Glover is fantastic +EV at +115. Glover has some clean boxing, and good enough standup to close the distance and wrap Hill up. Glover is the far more experienced fighter at this level, and he is back home! And I know Glover is 100 years old, but he was a few seconds away from being on a 7 fight win streak and retaining the belt! Glover has arguably never looked better. Hill’s wins fights with his hands, but Glover trains with a Pereira and he will be a great person to prepare him on the feet.

The UFC doesn’t often give easy matchups for legends on their way out, but they did their best for Rua in this one. Potieria will be dangerous early, but if Rua can stick it out I could see him chipping away to take a few scorecards.

I think Walker has it in him to be a great fighter. He seems dedicated and he is a serious athlete, but his technical skills have been lacking. Craig is a dangerous fight for someone who can be sloppy.

Magny has typically struggles against fighters who are superior grapplers, and I think it is safe to say Burns is a superior grappler. Magny is solid, but Burns is one of the best in the world. Think Burns shows there is levels to this.

I have gone back and forth on Figgy and Moreno, but after watching their last fight, seeing the line move, and seeing Figgy weigh in – I have decided to back Figgy. He is at home, his power has always been a problem for Moreno. But if Figgy has an extra jump in his step, that could be the difference. Lets also not ignore the fact that it would probably be easier to skirt USADA while in Brazil.