UFC 272 – Bets

Dustin Jacoby ML -190 (65.52%) – 2u

This should be a striking battle, and Jacoby should be the more polished and experienced striker.

Devonte Smith ML -150 (60.00%) – 2u

Devonte Smith might be one of the biggest underperformers in the UFC. He has had trouble putting a string of wins together, but there are some serious skills, and natural abilities there. In his last fight he dropped Mullarkey multiple times before he was overwhelmed and finished. He has a favourable matchup here, Klien is a striker, and he has some good kicks. But Smith should be able to handle him here.

Tim Elliot ML +180 (35.71%) – 1u

Tim Elliott is being disrespected by the lines, and Tagir is being given too much respect. Tagir had troubles against a grappler in his last time out, and Elliott is not going to be easy to handle on the ground. Elliott should have better striking, and he has far more experience. Like this line.

Nick Negumereanu ITD +225 (30.77%) – .25u

Some flier on an underdog in a close fight with a 90%+ finishing rate. Against a chinny opponent.

Marina Rodriguez ML -265 (72.60%) – 2u
Marina Rodriguez ITD +250 (28.57%) – 1u

This should be a stand up fight, and that should heavily favour the better striker, Marina. Will have a some money on Marina in parlays as well, so putting a larger bet on her finishing the fight.

Jalin Turner ML -155 (60.78%) – 2.5u
Jalin Turner ITD +140 (41.67%) – 1u
Turner – Mullarkey UNDER 2.5 -165 (62.26%) – 2u

I like Jalin in this fight. He should be the better striker, and he has showed a willingness to take the fight to the ground recently. He’s also the more physically gifted of the two.

Mullarkey will be game though. He has looked really good over his last two fights. He had a really impressive come from behind KO in his last fight against Devonte Smith.

We could see Mullarkey clip him and take him out. Betting the under as a sort of hedge, as I do expect someone to be finished. -165 is generous. in 34 combined fights, they have been to 5 decisions.

Kevin Holland ITD -120 (54.55%) – 1u

This should be a good fight for Holland. I am excepting him to look good in his welterweight debut. Putting a small bet on him finishing, even though Oliveira could survive. Have Holland in some parlays.

Edson Barboza ML +135 (42.55%) – 2u
Edson Barboza ITD +240 (29.41%) – .75u

I am fading the Bryce Mitchell here. He has showed an ability to land some punches as of late – but Edson is going to have a large advantage on the feet. Then the question becomes, will Mitchell be able to take Barboza down and keep him down? He will try, alot. And I am sure he will land some takedowns. But Edson has close to an 80% career UFC takedown defense. He had a 70% TDD against Khabib! I think Edson will be able to keep this on the feet, and prove himself to be the better overall fighter.

Rodriguez – Holland PARLAY -139 (58.16%) – 2u

My small chalk for the event. Feel good about both these picks.

Rodriguez – Holland – Barboza PARLAY +301 (24.94%) – 1u

Adding an underdog pick to my two chalks to add to each of these picks.

Jacoby – Smith – Elliot – Rodriguez – Turner – Holland – Barboza PARLAY +4601 (2.13%) – .25u

Taking all my picks and parlying them up.

Barboza ITD – Holland ITD – Turner ITD – Rodriguez ITD PARLAY +5136 (1.91%) – .25u

Small bet on highest conviction props.

Barboza ITD – Holland ITD – Turner ITD – Rodriguez ITD – Smith ITD – Elliott PARLAY +32154 (.31%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

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UFC 272 – Honourable Mentions

Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov – 125 pounds – Flyweight

A really fun and compelling crossroads flyweight fight. Tagir is now 2-0 in the UFC, and he will have a big step up in competition in Tim Elliot.

Tagir is primarily a wrestler and will look to get Tim down. Tagir is a pretty classic fighter that you would expect from Khabibs camp.

Tim Elliot typically comes into his fights with a similar strategy, but he has displayed a much more versatile game. And – Tim has been in there with some of the best in the world.

If Tagir can win this one, he will be well on his way to contender status. But I am not so sure he is ready for a guy at this level yet.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Brian Kelleher – 145 pounds – Featherweight

I REALLY like this fight. Even though the betting line is heavily in Umars favour, and I dont really think betting Kelleher is a great idea – I am still really interested to see what happens. Umar might he legit. He is 13-0, only 26 years old, and if he can stop Kelleher like he did his last UFC opponent – we may have found the next champ out of Khabibs camp.

This division is already so stupid stacked, and this fight against Kelleher will give us a good sense of what we have in Umar.

Marina Moroz vs Mariya Agopova – 125 pounds – Flyweight

The first of two matchup at UFC 272 that will feature former training partners turned rivals!

The rivalry between these two has flown under the radar, which makes since, considering that is a prelim fight between two lesser known flyweights. But the heat is real! These two seem to have a very heated rivalry that, combined with their aggressive styles, should make for a fun fight Saturday.

Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira – 170 pounds – Welterweight

I am really looking forward to seeing Kevin Holland make his debut at his appropriate weight class. Its kind of a wonder he did as well as he did at 185. He was really undersized AND he has a style of fighting that does lend himself well to being undersized.

He has a favourable matchup against Cowboy Oliveira. Oliveira has been a staple of the UFC for nearly 10 years, but he is nearing the end of his time in the UFC and is a heavy underdog in this fight against Kevin Holland.

Kevin will be looking to make a statement and reintroduce himself as a welterweight on the PPV main card.

Rafael dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano – 160 pounds – Catchweight

Not the fight we were expecting. For the second time we lost the highly anticipated RDA vs Fiziev bout. This time, the fight fell through when Fiziev caught the ’Vid and the UFC looked for a replacement to keep RDA in the co-main spot.

And after some back and forth on Twitter, we ultimately landed on Renato Moicano. And first of all, it is incredibly badass of Renato to accept this 5 round fight on a less than a weeks notice, while he was on a different continent! Renato looks to have his mojo back after returning to 155. He is 3-1 since moving back up, and his only loss was to Fiziev. But he has won two in a row and he’s looked really good in those two fights. Renato has really clean boxing and has some of the best grappling in the division.

RDA is returning after almost 18 months away, and is looking to start his own two fight win streak after returning to the lightweight division. RDA is 37, and is definitely in the back half of his career. But he is still competing with the best in the world, and has returned to his appropriate weight class. Do not count RDA out yet.

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Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal – Welterweight – 170 pounds

Time to settle the score!! Bitter rivals and former friends, roommates, training partners – are about fight each other in a cage in front of the whole world. These two have been going at each other for years now, lots of personal attacks. They have both been kicked out of their gym. And there is still talk that this is a “fake” or manufactured feud. And there is definitely a part of me that thought that for awhile as well. Almost everything that comes from Colby is a kayfabe. 

Let’s say they did plan this, that they would start to beef so one day they could fight each other and it would be a big fight. That is possible! But it doesn’t matter. Both these guys have told the world the other guys is a punk. That he sucks. They have put themselves in a situation that will result in only one being able to call himself the alpha. And not only that – the loser will be fighting for relevancy as a top fighter in the UFC. Jorge will probably be ok if he loses? He might have that Diaz type drawing power by now. But that is not how he see’s his career. Jorge still considers himself one of the best in the world. And it is much easier to stay a draw if you are winning fights. And losing 3 straight is very damaging to your brand regardless of how big you are.

And Colby? He is the favourite. He is the one that is supposed to win this fight. He is the one that has pushed Kamaru Usman to his limits. On paper, Colby should be the one who wins this fight. And he definitely can not afford to lose this one. Colby is a “draw” and has a name, no doubt. But he is not in that Conor/Diaz/Masvidal class where he can lose multiple fights and still be in PPV mains and co-mains. He needs to keep winning to stay in those spots. If he gets KOd by Jorge, he will be in a tough spot. Lost twice to Usman, now will be ranked behind his bitter rival Jorge. All the while, Khamzat is waiting in the wings. Waiting to pounce and take over the division. Colby needs to be good enough to beat Jorge Masvidal. Or he is about to find himself in a tough spot, career wise. 

From a stylistic perspective, its pretty simple. Masvidal will want to strike. Colby is going to want to “dump him on his head” and grind him out.

The line has swelled for Colby. But Jorge is a live dog. So much of fighting is mental, and we could see Jorge big brother Colby and break him. And the gap in their striking is real. Could be an interesting fight. 

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Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell – Lightweight – 155 pounds

A classic crossroads fight between two fan favourites.

Edson Barboza has been around forever. He made his debut in 2010! UFC 123, Rampage fought Machida in a non-title bought. And BJ Penn KOd Hughes in like 20 seconds in the co-main! Crazy times. But point being, Barboza has been around the block a few times and he has fought all the best in the world at 155 and 145. We all know and love Edson for his lighting fast kicks and powerful and technical striking. But Edson is a well-rounded fighter and good athlete. He’s has shown strong takedown defense throughout his career, and he is a competent grappler when the fight does go to the ground.

Bryce Mitchell is 14-0 (He did lose to Brad Katona on TUF season 27) and is primarily known for his grappling and submission game. His most notable win was in 2019 when he pulled off the elusive “Twister” against Matt Styles. And he almost got another one against Charles Rosa in his next fight! He has showed improved stand up recently, landing some solid punches in his last fight against Andre Filli.

But matched up against a guy like Edson Barboza, Bryce Mitchell is definitely going to want to use his grappling. He can improve his striking all he wants, he ain’t touching Edson on the feet. So then the question is how much will Edson be able to utilize his time in space, and will Bryce be able to take, and then keep Edson down enough to be the better fighter.

The line here is interesting. We have a good idea of what Edson’s ceiling is. But we don’t exactly know where Bryce’s ceiling is. And when these guys that are on the rise, get the to ‘Edson Barboza’s’ of their division – it is when you find out if the prospect is on their way to becoming a contender. Some would call Edson a “gatekeeper”, but I just think there is more to it than that. Edson is still a threat to anyone at 145.

The styles clash between these two is fun. And career crossroad fights are lots of fun. High stakes! Is Bryce heading to the top 10? Or is Edson keeping the gate locked and his position as the number 10 guy in the division.

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Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight – 155 pounds

This is a really fun fight. Both these fighters have suffered some losses in the UFC, but they are both entering this fight on winning, and finishing streaks.

Jalin Turner doesn’t have the prettiest record. But there are plenty of numbers in his favour. For example – his age and height! He is a 6’3 lightweight, and at only 26 years old, he already has a ton of high-level experience! Do not let that record fool you, Jalin Turner is good. Really good. We always need to be on the look out for the next Charles Oliveira. Fighters who get started early in the UFC, and look like they have some potential and solid skills. Fighters who look like they might have an extra gear. And Jalin Turner really feels like one of those guys. A fighter who could figure it out and make his way into the top 10 of the sports most competitive division.

Jalin has a ton of power, and has showed some really solid fight IQ and grappling in his recent fights. He’s a good athlete and will be capable anywhere the fight goes.

His opponent is Jamie Mullarkey. After starting his UFC career with 2 losses, he has since won 2 straight via TKO. Jamies most recent performance was a very impressive KO victory over well respected prospect, Devonte Smith. Devonte clipped him a few times early in the fight, and then at some point in the 2nd round, Jamie decided to up the pressure and he overwhelmed Devonte and finished him with strikes against the cage. It was a impressive. And Jamie has looked like a different fighter as of late! He has really improved.

Both these guys are super early in their careers and have shown some serious skills, and improvements as of late. This is a big fight for both their careers progression. Should be an exciting scrap.

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Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xiaonan – Strawweight – 115 pounds

You know what would be a sick fight? Marina Rodriguez vs Rose Namajunas. It kind of feels like Marina is the forgotten contender at 115. But she is ranked 3rd at 115 and she has won 3 straight! And her most recent loss came to the current number one contender, Carla Esparza.

Marina Rodriguez is good. She has really technical and powerful striking. And she is a very physical fighter for the division, which leads to being difficult to handle on the ground. She might be the best striker in the division, and she would make for an interesting fresh matchup for Rose.

Marina will be taking on the 4th ranked Yan Xiaonan. Yan Xiaonan is a strong striker who likes to come forward and look for the finish. She is coming off a pretty tough loss to Carla Esparza. Carla grappled and advanced pretty easily working her way to a 2nd round finish. For Yan to stay relevant in the 115 pound division, this is a must win. But I think she will have a really tough fight ahead of her. Marina is the dark horse at 115. She has high level striking experience and would be happy to trade on the feet with Rose. I am looking forward to seeing if she can have a big showcase performance Saturday and make her case for a title shot.

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Event Preview – UFC 272

The grudge match has arrived! These two BFFs turned bitter rivals will settle the score on PPV in a non-title fight this Saturday.

It is very rare to have a non-title fight in a PPV main event. And it is even more rare when you exclude Conor McGregor! The other recent example involves half our 272 main event, Jorge Masvidal. And he was opposite Nate Diaz! And they even created some fake BMF title to parade around. And before that, you have to go all the way back to UFC 183! And that still included a Diaz!

Really – the last time the UFC put on a big event without Conor McGregor, a Diaz, or some sort of title on the line, was UFC 114! All the way back in 2010.

And the talk around this fight is pretty interesting among the hardcores. There is talk of a lack of buzz. That maybe this feud is all a work. And of course – there is a big dark Nigerian cloud hanging over this fight. What is even on the line for these two? Is the winner gonna fight Usman a third time??

The real question we need to be asking, and the reason this fight is in fact a big deal – what is next for the loser? Because both these guys carry themselves like they are the best in the world. Like they are the “A side”, the draw. The big deal! But that is hard to claim when you’re not wearing the UFC strap. And it basically becomes impossible for whoever loses this fight.

The loser is facing the worst possible outcome for a prize fighter – becoming irrelevant.
Of course, to some extent, the loser will still be around. Talking trash, fighting whoever. But it would be tough to sell the idea they are a threat to the biggest names in the world. They won’t be in a UFC PPV main event anytime soon.

And – we can be skeptical of how real this beef is, but it is hard to say at this point that this fight isn’t extremely personal. There has been a lot of real-world fallout from this beef. They were both kicked out of ATT at one point, they have talked a bunch of crap publicly for years now. A loss will be devastating for the career and ego for either of these fighters.

Don’t sleep on the rest of the card! The main card is full of compelling and potentially violent matchups. And we got some good young talent on the undercard that should also make for some exciting matchups. Should be fun.

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