UFC 271 – Bets

Douglas Silva de Andrade ML +175 (36.36%) – 1.5u

Betting the line here. Douglas has fought the best in the world at 135, and despite being 36 years old, he is still in great shape and is very strong for the weight class. And he has only lost to the very best at 135. And there is no evidence that Moroz is a top 5 bantamweight, so if the books are going to give Douglas a 36% chance of winning this fight, I will happily take that bet.

Morozov could chain wrestle and grind Douglas against the cage and ride out a decision win. But Douglas will not be easy to hold, and is a competent grappler himself. When they are at distance I expect Douglas to really show the gap in their striking.

AJ Dobson ML -118 (54.13%) – 4u
AJ Dobson ITD +120 (45.45%) – 1.5u
AJ Dobson 1ST RD +300 (25%) – .25u

It is difficult to have strong conviction a fighter is going to win when they have never won in the UFC before, especially when their opponent does have a UFC win(s).

But I am happy to do it here – AJ Dobson looks like he could be an absolute monster, and I do not think his opponent, Jacob Malkoun, will have much to offer in the fight. Jacob won his last fight with a relentless takedown game against a bloated and out of shape opponent. And that could happen again, but I really doubt it.

I expect AJ to blitz and steamroll Malkoun, with little resistance.

Casey O’Neill ITD +180 (35.71%) – .75u

I have a ton of respect for Roxanne. But this is an absolutely terrible style matchup for her. Casey will be better and stronger where Roxanne wants this fight to take place, and I expect the ref to save Roxanne in her final fight while being hammered with punches in the mount.

Bobby Green ML -145 (59.18%) – 2u

Bobby Green is one of the most underrated fighters in what is probably the deepest division in the sport. He has stuck around in there with some of the worlds best.

Nasrat will want to land a big punch, but Bobby Green is really tough to catch, and even tougher to catch clean and take out. At the worst, I expect Bobby Green to out point fight Nasrat. Hopefully change levels and mix it up. At best, he lands a clean punch and takes him out.

Jared Cannonier ML -160 (61.54%) – 2.5u
Jared Cannonier ITD +400 (20%) – .25u

This is where we see Derek Brunson meet his limit in his climb to the top at 185. We will understand after this fight that there are clear tiers in this weight class.

Derek will have a tough time getting Jared down, and an even harder time keeping him down. And when Jared hits Brunson – because he is definitely going to hit him at some point, we will see the fight changing power that Jared carries.

Cannonier – O’Neill – Dobson PARLAY +267 (27.25%) – 1u

Taking my highest conviction picks and parlaying them up.

Was really tempted to throw Green in here, but that was getting too greedy.

UFC 271 – Honourable Mentions

Jeremiah Wells vs Mike Mathetha – 170 pounds – Welterweight

Well, UFC 271 is choosing to begin with violence.

Mike “Blood Diamond” Mathetha has not only the new coolest UFC nickname, he also is going to have one of the most unique striking styles in the organization. The first of three City Kickboxing fighters to fight at 271, Blood Diamond has an extensive kickboxing background and will be hunting for the KO with his funky and flowing style.

His opponent – Jeremiah Wells, has some serious power. Like, that freaky death touch kind of power. I do think he will be more willing to mix it with takedowns up as well, which could give him an advantage.

But I am guessing we see violence

Jacob Malkoun vs AJ Dobson – 185 pounds – Middleweight

This is a fight where I have my eye specifically on one fighter. And that is AJ Dobson, the next potential world champion to come from Mark Colemans gym.

AJ fought like a madman on his DWCS series debut. But not in a bad way, he just was ultra aggressive chasing the finish. I have watched a lot of fights, and it was a very unique approach. I am really curious to see if he blitzes his opponent again!

But I am also really curious to see how good he actually is, because aside from his berserker fight style, he also looks to have some skills and physical attributes. I really hope he is good. Because if he is, we might have a new fan favourite on our hands, at least..

Carlos Ulberg vs Fabio Cherant – 205 pounds – Light Heavyweight

Carlos Ulberg is one of the guys on Izzy’s City Kickboxing team. So I am going to be curious to see how he does. He has a pretty solid kickboxing pedigree. And was in a wild fight with Kennedy Nzechukwu his last time out where it looked like he was moments from moving his record to 4-0.

Fabio Cherant is 0-2 in the UFC, losing both his fights in the 1st round. He has not yet proven himself to be UFC caliber, and will be a favourable stlye matchup for Carlos Ulberg..

Anthony Hernandez vs Renato Moicano – 155 pounds – Lightweight

Anthony Hernandez recently made headlines complaining about his placement on this card! Anthony claimed him and his opponent, Renato Moicano, are two of the most well known names on this card, and they should be further up the card!

And I don’t disagree – but, they have both traded wins and losses in their last 4. Losing to those supposed “main card” fighters. Both these guys need this win to get back to those higher profile matchups.

Derrick Lewis vs Tia Tuivasa – 265 pounds – Heavyweight

This big boys!

This fight features the hometown boy, Derrick Lewis returning home looking for redemption against the “shoey” specialist Tai Tuivasa. Yes, drinking beer from a shoe is Tai Tuivasa’s specialty as a UFC fighter. The UFC featured more beer drinking highlights than they did KO highlights! It is kind of ridiculous.

But aside from how these fighters choose to enjoy their beverages – they will both be looking for the KO.

The strategy in this fight will be pretty simple. Get the KO. That’s it.

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UFC Championship Fight – Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker – 185 pounds – Middleweight

The “Undisputed King of the Middleweights” and bona fide superstar, Israel Adesanya returns to officially begin his second lap of the UFCs middleweight division.

We’ve gotten used to a lot of turnover in our UFC champions over the last few years – the top of these divisions are so hyper-competitive. We have forgot what its like to have challengers take a second crack at a long reigning champ – and what is at risk for the champ.

How could Izzy top his last performance against Whittaker!? And Whittaker now has an idea of what didn’t work and has had time to plan for what to do differently! He’s witnessed a game plan that worked to beat Izzy. And – Robert Whittaker can give himself a better chance by being in a better head space this time around. There are many reasons why fans are assuming this second fight between Izzy and Whittaker will look different.

Izzy is the “A side” here. He is the draw. Izzy is the one who has a throne to lose. There is so much on the line! And there are so many angles to look at these rematches from that favour the challenger.

Whoever it is that is able to execute on Saturday, will have undoubtedly proven a lot.

If Izzy can beat a new fresh version of Robert Whittaker, with a new game plan, and a new attitude. He will prove he is simply better than the consensus #2 Middleweight in the world.

If Robert can crack the Stylbender puzzle, that will be an amazing comeback story! And will set the scene for an absolutely massive trilogy.

I really do not know what to expect from this fight – which is lots of fun. And regardless of all the angles or whatever – they are two best guys in the world! Nothing better than that.

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Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson – Middleweight – 185 pounds

This is one of those make-or-break fights at the top of a division. A fight between two fighters who have spent their career as a “contender”, but never the “challenger”. And now is the time to win that big fight that gets you the title shot – or if you lose, accept that it is not going to happen.

MMA is a sport where you can never count someone out, but objectively, it is reasonable to claim that this is a make-or-break fight for Jared Cannonier and Derek Brunson. Brunson is outwardly talking about retirement. Saying he has two fights left. If he doesn’t win, he isn’t getting a title fight in his next fight.

Whereas Jared Cannonier does seem to have more long-term plans in the sport, he is 37 years old. He needs to beat Derek Brunson and prove himself to be a feasible fresh matchup for Izzy. If Jared wins this fight, his only loss at 185 will have been a 3 round decision loss to Whittaker. And it reasonable to claim he is a worthy new challenger for Izzy.

And Jared still looks great? I know I’m trying to sell this idea that this is make-or-break for Jared because he is 37 – but he still looks healthy and strong. He is talking about going to 170!?
Jared Cannonier is such an interesting character..

And this fight is interesting. Brunson will want to chain wrestle and get Jared down. He’ll faint and strike and shoot. Whereas Jared is going to try and control the distance and look to pick clean shots. He’ll be plenty patient – and he’ll want to always be prepared to stuff the shot from Brunson.

Jared Cannonier needed to use utilize a similar strategy in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum, which he did beautifully. Jared displayed great fight IQ timing Gastelum’s shots – he was officially credited with a perfect 8 for 8 takedown defense in his 5 round fight against Kelvin. It was a beautiful performance, and even though he couldn’t finish Gastelum (which we know is not easy) he did hurt him a few times. And Jared Cannonier hits hard, which means trouble for Brunson (duh).

But that has always been Dereks problem! He is too easy to hit. He is on a win streak right now but go watch those fights – he gets hit in everyone. Right before Till tapped, he had Derek hurt!

I think this fight is being slept on from an action standpoint. It is very very unlikely that Derek Brunson can just lay on Jared Cannonier for 3 rounds. These two will be throwing.

And I also feel like I might be talking myself into a juicy bet here.. Let’s see.

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Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell – Flyweight – 125 pounds

This fight has been canceled! 😭

Flyweight might be the most overlooked division in the sport, and this matchup and it’s placement on the card might be the best evidence. This is one of only three fights on the whole card featuring fights between top 10 fighters!? Alex Perez’ last fight was for the title!! And this fight is stuck in the middle of the prelims – why!? I don’t get why the UFC does this. Feature these top 10 fighters on PPV.

Alex Perez lost to Deiveson via first round submission in his title shot in November of 2020 and has been battling injuries and rescheduling’s ever since. Perez is still one of the best in the world and absolutely could work his way back to the title. He is a solid striker but will want to take this fight to the ground.

Matt Schnell is a really fun and a really good fighter. He may not have the biggest name and has had issues with consistency in the UFC, but his ability is not being reflected in his record. His fight against Alexandre Pantoja, who is now ranked #3 in the division, was starting to go well for him! I thought he was starting to look like the better fighter. Then he got clipped with a big punch and went down. His last fight with Bontorin was close! Matt Schnell is being slept on in this fight and this division. I am not ready to sleep on him just yet.

Top 10 flyweight fights are almost always fun. And I expect this one to be no different.

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Roxanne Modafferi vs Casey O’Neill – Flyweight – 125 pounds

Roxanne “The Happy Warrior” Modafferi will be hanging up the gloves after she competes in her 50th fight! (Including her 5 TUF fights)

You may be hearing a lot about how Roxanne Modafferi is a “pioneer” and an “OG”. And it can not be overstated enough how true and accurate those terms are.

Roxanne had her first fight in 2003! The same month she debuted, Matt Hughes was defending his title against the fighter turned referee, Frank Trigg. On a main card that featured Tank Abbott!! There are many women who deserve credit for being trailblazers in women’s MMA, but one of those women is without a doubt Roxanne Modafferi. Women in MMA is so common nowadays we almost take it for granted! But it wasn’t that long ago when Dana said women would never fight in the UFC.

And there would have been women who were the first women in their gyms. That is what then leads to two, and three, and so on! And Roxanne is one of those who would have built the foundation needed for women to become permanent fixtures of the MMA world.

Roxanne really feels like an old school fighter. Someone who became successful by being extremely dedicated to their craft and having really clean martial arts technique. But more importantly, they are the fighters whose best attribute was their character. They are strong-willed individuals who never quit, kept working on bettering themselves and we see that strong will in their fights. And we call them scrappy, or tough, or exciting. But what they are showing us is their character, that never die spirit that they live their lives with! It is one of the reasons why we love this sport.

Roxanne Modafferi is a great example of the best MMA has to offer. She is by all accounts, a wonderful person who should be proud of the amazing career she has had. It is extremely rare to have a professional career that spans almost 20 years. Remarkable.

But this is the UFC, and there are no easy fights in the UFC. And oh boy – is the UFC giving Roxanne a difficult fight to end her MMA career. Casey O’Neill is 24 years old and 8-0 in her pro MMA career and between her pro and amateur career, she has a finishing rate of nearly 80%! This is nearly double the average for that weight class.

King Casey O’Neill is an absolute monster. She is relentless and smothers her opponents. She will chain wrestle, and once she gets on top, she seems impossible to move. I wasn’t sold on her initially, but I am becoming really interested in seeing how far she can go. She might be a tough style matchup for the champ, Valentina Shevchenko. Something to watch for.

Roxanne will have one more attempt to display her warrior spirit to the world in the octagon, and she is being given a great chance to do so against the rising contender Casey O’Neill. Thank you, and congratulations on an amazing career, Roxanne!

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Event Preview – UFC 271

2nd PPV of the year!

This is what fans would typically call a “weak” PPV. And Dana White would probably say that we can’t judge a card until it has happened! But what has always bugged me about that response, is that we want to watch high stakes fights featuring the best fighters in the world! Its not just about the action.

However, that doesn’t mean Dana hasn’t had the chance to say “I told you so” like, a million times. It is pretty funny how often that happens. There is a “weak” PPV that ends up being wild. Regardless of the name value or the stakes of the fights, there is something in the air on a PPV when a title will be on the line. Especially nowadays, having full crowds for the PPVs gives the fights an extra energy. And the cards are often lots of fun top to bottom.

The matchmakers can play a role in all this as well. Putting fights together that have high potential of action is an easy substitute for that name value we’re looking for in PPVs

And UFC 271 has a bunch of fun matchups, and there is definitely a high likelihood of lots of violence on this card.

Let’s also not forget why the UFC can put on a “weak” PPV – it is because there is a massive superstar in the main event! In an insanely competitive matchup with the clear 2nd best guy in the world.

This fight between Izzy and Bobby Knuckles is far closer than the betting lines, or the general tone around this fight would indicate. This fight could end up looking far different the second time around. Robert getting a second chance to figure Izzy out will most likely mean a new approach.

Looking forward to diving in!

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