UFC 270 – Bets

Tony Gravely ML -250 (71.43%) – 2.5u
Tony Gravely ITD +185 (35.09%) – .75u

I like Tony Gravely a lot in this fight. Even at these prices. He is much better than his record indicates. And has experience against a much higher level of opponent.

Michael Morales ML -120 (54.55%) – 1.5u
Michael Morales ITD +250 (28.57%) – .5u

I am booking my ticket on the Michael Morales hype train with these bets. He has a tough opponent in front of him in Trevin Giles. And I would guess a lot of sharps like Giles at these prices given his UFC experience in a higher weight class.

But I am banking on Michael Morales making a statement in his UFC debut – on PPV! Looking forward to this one.

Cody Stamann ML +160 (38.46%) – 2u

This line is way off. Cody Stamann has competed with some of the best in the world at 135. And he is a tough style matchup for Said.

I am happy to make a sizeable bet on Cody at these prices.

Andre Fialho TKO +400 (205) – .5u

I am taking a flier on Fialho continuing his KO streak against an overrated opponent. Pereira is the one with the UFC experience, but Fialho has arguably fought better competition. He has 15 minutes to land a big punch and get him out.

Deiveson Figueiredo ITD +245 (29%) – .5u

Ok. I am going to play both sides of the fence here.

My head is telling me to go with Moreno. So often in these rematches and trilogies, the smart bet is to bet on the guy who most recently proved themselves to be the better fighter.

However – there is a part of me that still believes Deiveson Figueiredo is the better fighter. And I would like to try and make some money betting on that gut feeling.

I like this line. +245 on Figgy finishing the fight? We’ll see.

Ciryl Gane ML -150 (295) – 1u

This fight is so f——- crazy. I have gone back and forth so many times over the last few weeks. Considering making a over/under rounds bet. Hedging and betting on both guys!

But ultimately, I am making the simple bet on who I think is the better, more well rounded fighter.

I am so unsure I originally had this listed as a .5u bet. But that is too boring. It is the main event! I need to do at least 1u.

Tony Gravely – Michael Morales – Cody Stamann – Andre Fialho – PARLAY – +2060 (4.63%) – .25u

Parlays can be dangerous. And a lot of fun..

I do not plan on posting tons of parlays.
But parlays can be a good way to utilize a sort of “leverage” when betting. Especially if there are couple dogs you like. Risking a very small unit amount to win big. So if I am right, I will be REALLY right at UFC 270.

We’ll see.

UFC 270 – Honourable Mentions

Jack Della Maddalena vs Pete Rodriguez – 170 pounds – Welterweight

Jack started his pro career 0-2. But has won 10 straight fights. He won on DWCS and looked really good against a good opponent. He has heavy strikes and solid grappling. Curious to see his UFC debut.

Pete Rodriguez is taking this fight on short notice. He has finished all 4 of his pro fights via 1st round KO, and supports an amatuer record of 7-2. 4 1st round KOs is interesting, and no doubt he has some serious power. But he has done this against regional competition. I am not sure he has the skills or size to compete at 170 in the UFC.

Tony Gravely vs Saimon Oliveira – 135 pounds – Bantamweight

A couple of DWCS series alums.

I like Tony Gravely. He feels like another underappreciated and underrated fighter that is on this card. He is a life long martial artist, and very well rounded. He is 2-2 in the UFC, but he has lots of high level of experience outside the UFC. All his losses outside the UFC are against some of the best bantamweights in the world! And his most recent loss was a flash KO after an impressive performance up until that point.

Saimon Oliveira will be making his UFC debut. He has 11 wins via submission but has a Muay Thai background.

Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov – 135 pounds – Bantamweight

An important fight in one of the deepest divisions in the UFC. And a classic crossroads fight.

Cody Stamann has competed with some of the best in the division most of his UFC career. But currently finds himself on a 2 fight losing streak after a close fight with Merab Dvalishvili. Cody has had issues beating the best guys, but man is he close. He is your classic wrestler with solid boxing. But he is a good athlete and at only 32 years old, he could still make a run.

Said Nurmagomedov, is a part of Khabibs team, but is not actually related to him. He can grapple, but he is definitely more of a striker. Likes the “spinning shit”. He is a solid prospect, but this is a big step up in competition.

The line here is interesting..

Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho – 170 pounds – Welterweight

Oh look! The super crazy flippy guy Michel Pereira! The super crazy guy who has gone to a decision in his last 2 fights.
While that in itself is not a terrible thing, it’s just that he has all this hype that he is this super crazy exciting fighter because he has done a few flips. But he actually needs to be good enough to take guys out to be truly exciting. And he doesn’t seem to have that ability..

Andre Fialho is making his UFC debut, but he has plenty of high level experience. He has wins over UFC vets, and is entering the UFC on a 4 fight win streak winning all fights via TKO. Hes got some solid power in his hands.

This fight has all the makings of an excting fan friendly fight. We’ll see who can execute.

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UFC Championship Fight – Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane – 265 pounds – Heavyweight

There is nothing like a Heavyweight title fight. The holder of the UFC Heavyweight title has a legitimate claim to being the baddest dude on the planet.
And this one feels different..

Because there is so much happening with this fight!! It can be hard to keep track of it all, so I will try and break it down nice and easy,

This is the last fight on Francis’ deal. If he loses, he is a free agent. If he wins, the ‘championship clause’ kicks in and his deal is extended 3 fights OR 1 year. The other factor here is the new 5 year max on UFC deals. So either way, even with the championship clause he is free and clear at the end of this year. Francis has said he will not fight again on this deal, which could lead to a year long stalemate between the UFC and Francis Ngannou. This has not been emphasized enough in the MMA world. This would be crazy.

Next – they were (or weren’t?) former training partners. Regardless on the status of their friendship, or training partner status. They shared coach. That is interesting.

This fight is a fight fans dream from a stylistic perspective. Francis has that freaky lights-out power. Ciryl Gane is a big HW that moves like a Middleweight. And they are both freak athletes.

But more importantly – the winner of this fight is going to be a major global superstar. The winner of this fight is going to be the King of the damn world for the foreseeable future!

Francis looks like a comic book character. And has the story that feels destined for the big screen. He is a promotors dream Heavyweight Champion. If he can do to Ciryl Gane what he has done to everyone else. Strap Francis to a damn rocket ship. He is going to the freaking moon. He will be one of the biggest stars in the world!!

Ciryl Gane is a superstar in France already. When you have an entire nation behind you, it can propel you to a global audience. And – if Ciryl Gane beats Francis Ngannou? That will mean he is really f—— good. We get excited about star power, and trash talk, and all that. But being the best takes you further than any of that other stuff can. And Ciryl Gane might be a quality of fighter we have never seen at Heavyweight before..

And the winner is being lined up for a massive fight against Jon Jones next! And either of these guys should be a favorite in that fight. Being the first to beat Jon Jones? That is what is waiting for either of these guys.

Who is gonna take it..

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UFC Championship Fight – Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo – 125 pounds – Flyweight

The trilogy and 3rd consecutive fight between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo. Normally, there isn’t an appetite for the same fight 3 times in a row. But not only were we happy to get the trilogy fight – there is talk that there may be a fourth!!
Why is that?

Well –

First of all, the first fight was a draw after Figgy was deducted a point for a nuts shot. Regardless of the nuts shot, it was close. After a draw you do a rematch. Then the underdog Brandon Moreno gets it done! Submission round 3, we have a new champ. And now its only fair to give the former champ a chance to get his title back. There are other potential contenders at 125, but Figgy deserves this shot.

And second, these two put on some incredible fights.

Flyweights are always fun. 125 might actually be my favourite division. Especially if we are only considering the actual fights themselves. Flyweights are so quick, and their technique is always so sharp. And these two are a perfect representation of why flyweights are so fun.

Figgy will walk his opponents down with strikes and is a threat to change levels. Moreno has really clean boxing and will mix up his strikes really well. And he out grappled Deiveson last fight! Overwhelmed him physically and ultimately got the RNC to win the belt.

They are about to fight for the third time and I still cant figure out who is truly better. For some reason, I still have the impression that Figgy is the more skilled and dangerous fighter. He is such a monster at that weight. But obviously – Moreno looked great in their last fight. He finished the fight to win the belt!

But – there is a part of me that wonders if Figgy was really at his best? He didn’t look exactly right. And he has mentioned being sick for that fight, having troubles with the weight cut.
BUT – something you learn, is all that stuff does not usually matter. The fighter who most recently proved they were better, will be better in the next fight too. I do not know who is going to win this fight. I will do my best to guess! But regardless, it is a safe bet this will be an all time classic.
Cant wait!

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Michael Morales vs Trevin Giles – 170 Pounds – Welterweight

This is a fascinating fight.

Trevin Giles is an established UFC vet, first debuting in the UFC at 205 in 2017! He has spent the rest of his UFC career at 185 and has posted a respectable overall record of 5 – 3 in the octagon. Trevin will be looking for a fresh start in a new division making his debut at 170, which seems like a good move for him. Trevin is a very solid fighter; he is a good example of the depth the UFC roster has to offer. Trevin is one of those guys that would probably compete for titles in every other organization, while in the UFC, he has troubles getting ranked. He is good – and a great litmus test for a UFC newcomer with some hype and potential..

Which brings us to his opponent. The 22-year-old Michael Morales.
Outside of the two title fights, he is the fighter I am the most curious to see perform. It isn’t often a fighter this young gets a shot in the UFC. The fact that he is even here speaks volumes to his abilities. But my goodness – this kid looks to be a serious athlete.

MMA is one of the few sports in the world where you can have superior technique and be considered one of the best in the world, without being a world class athlete. Which is wild, because the other sports where this is also true, typically involve the use of some sort of a “tool”. A golf club, race car, etc.

But this is changing fast in MMA. If it hasn’t already. To hold a title in the UFC, you will probably also need to be a legitimate world class athlete. Think about the fighters at the top of the sport. Olympic gold medalists, national champions. So, when you’re considering how far a prospect can go, their pure natural athleticism needs to be taken into serious consideration.

And Michael Morales looks to have all the makings of a high quality athlete. When you get athletes like this training martial arts early, they can be scary. He has been doing martial arts his whole life, and has even spent time at the Olympic training center.

Don’t get me wrong, Michael Morales also has tons of technical skills. The DWCS alum and Brandon Moreno training partner is capable any where the fight goes. He can counter strike and pick his shots. He will out grapple grapplers. But what he does best is wear guys down with his physicality. Then when you see him tie it all together – he will be tossing high quality professional fighters across the cage in the 15th minute of a fight.

The experience discrepancy in this fight is significant. Most of Michael Morales’ fights are against sub par regional competition. Whereas Giles debuted in the UFC before Morales even had his first amateur fight..

But if Michael Morales can go in there and make a statement against a guy like Trevin Giles? In his debut? At 22 years old!?

Look the f— out.
…Choo Choo..

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Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry – 135 pounds – Bantamweight

This will be a really fun fight between two highly skilled and well-rounded fighters. Neither of them are near a title fight at 135, but they both would be able to compete with the very best at Bantamweight.

If there is a list of the most underrated and underappreciated UFC fighters, Raoni Barcelos has to be on there. It is crazy that he is not even ranked at 135! Which speaks to the depth of the division. He is 5-1 in the bantamweight division, including a win over one of the fan bases favourite prospects, Said Nurmagomedov. And his last fight was razor close!! Raoni nearly had him finished at the end of the fight, if he were to get a rematch, I’d happily place a bet on him to get that win back. Raoni is well rounded, and aggressive. He is a lot of fun to watch, he has power and can grapple with the best in the world.

Victor Henry is finally making his UFC debut after this same fight fell through twice. He is undefeated since 2017 (go watch that fight he “lost” in 2020, it is one of the worst decisions I have ever seen. He did not lose. Some hometown shenanigans happening there). And he has competed with some of the best outside the UFC.  He is a really strong grappler, and mixes up his strikes really well.

This is a high HIGH level fight. And it will be a lot of fun. It is a damn shame it is flying under the radar. These are the fights that make UFC cards fun. Cant wait..

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Ilia Topuria vs Charles Jourdain – 145 pounds – Featherweight

Ilia Topuria was supposed to fight Movsar Evloev on this card. And that would have been the best non-title fight on the card.

Thankfully Topuria is still on the card. As he is one of the most intriguing prospects in the Featherweight division. Its kinda funny to look up his record and see that the majority of his wins are via submission because this guy has some heavy and aggressive striking. Does he also have a high-level grappling game with that black belt he’s got!? That sounds scary..

Topuria is only 24 years old and is undefeated. He is someone to keep an eye on, will be curious to see how far he can go. He will most likely be ranked in the super competitive Featherweight division very soon.

His opponent will be the Canadian Charles Jourdain. Who is coming off a big win against against Andre Ewell in December that came with a fresh new contract. Jourdain had a great win his last time out, he hurt the very game Ewell a couple times and ended the fight with an emphatic “this is sparta” kick right at the bell. Jourdain has always felt like one of those underappreciated fighters in a stacked division. He is much better than his record shows and I expect him to have a long and successful UFC career.

But – this is a tough matchup for Jourdain. Topuria will be a style of striker that will be hard to deal with for Jourdain. As I expect Topuria to be the more powerful and aggressive striker. But you never know until they are in there. Will be a fun fight either way.

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Event Preview – UFC 270

Oh boy. Here it is. The first PPV of 2022, and it is headlined by the biggest and smallest male weight classes – but more importantly both these fights are going to be fantastic.

The Heavyweight title fight, strictly from the perspective of the style matchup – is already insanely interesting. Both these heavyweights are legitimate freaks. We have been waiting a long time for athletes of this caliber to compete at the top of the UFC heavyweight division. And we finally have that in the supremely technical and quick Cyril Gane, and the unimaginably powerful Francis Ngannou. Couple in all the drama surrounding their history training together, and Francis’ contract disputes with the UFC, there is so much surrounding this fight. The tension in the building when these two finally make the walk is going to be intense. There is nothing else like it in all of sports.

Then we have the trilogy for the title in the most exciting and action-packed division in the sport (if you do not agree that flyweight on average has the most exciting fights – you’re wrong). Brandon Moreno has one of the best journeys to the title of any champ in recent memory, from being cut to becoming the first Mexican born champ in UFC history. This kid is hard not to love, and we may have one of the sports next big stars. Deiveson Figueiredo will be looking to reclaim his title after it looked like he might be the King of that division for some time. Deiveson is an absolute monster, who looks to be in the best shape of his life. This fight is going to be so fun I want to cry.

As for the rest of the card – many are saying it is weak, that this is a classic top-heavy PPV. Obviously, the only notable names on the card are at the top. But there is a lot of talent spread throughout the card, and maybe even a couple future contenders..

Looking forward to diving into UFC 270,

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