7.5 minute read. TL;DR at the end
As of writing this, UFC 273 and Khamzat Chimaevs first real test in the UFC is a little over a week away. 273 is stacked from top to bottom. And even features two title fights! But much of the focus seems to be on the Khamzat Chimaev and Gilbert Burns fight.
UFC 273 brings back memories of UFC 178. For those who don’t remember, UFC 178 featured what many believed to be Conor McGregor’s first real test in a matchup against 5th ranked Dustin Poirier. That fight also felt like the unofficial main event..
Conor passed his test with flying colours. And according to the betting lines, Khamzat is expected to do the same. Khamzat, who has 4 fights in the UFC and no wins against a top 10 opponent, is a 6-1 favourite in some places against the #2 welterweight! Gilbert has 17 fights in the UFC. He’s won 7 of his last 8. His only loss at 170 is to the #1 P4P fighter in the world, Kamaru Usman! And it is Khamzat that is the 6-1 favourite.
Khamzat isn’t the first phenom prospect we’ve had in the UFC. There have been other fighters in the past who felt destined for the title early in their careers. Fighters who seemed to have something special, an extra step. But even relative to phenoms of the past, Khamzat feels different.
And it doesn’t just feel different. It is literally different..
Jones and Khabib are probably the closest comparisons we have. Fighters who were earmarked for the title early in their careers, fighters who had that extra step. But even they needed some time in the UFC before they were given that consideration. They were both small betting underdogs in their first two UFC fights! They had to beat some established fighters before they were really getting that hype and respect from the fans and handicappers.
Khamzat had that hype and respect almost immediately. And Khamzat being a 6-1 favourite in his 5th UFC fight against the #2 fighter in his division isn’t like anything we’ve seen before. It isn’t just notable – it is outright strange.
It is kinda funny, and interesting, how much the Burns-Khamzat betting line has become the talk of 273. Fans are having a hard time wrapping their heads around the blatant disrespect Gilbert Burns is receiving! And for good reason! Gilbert Burns isn’t just the #2 welterweight, he is one of the best P4P guys in the world! He isn’t ranked in the P4P top 15 currently, but he has to be close, right? He is 25 on Tapologys P4P list, and you could easily argue he should be higher.
But it isn’t just about Gilberts accolades, or how highly regarded he is. It is also about the style matchup..
Gilbert Burns, on paper, should be a tough style matchup for Khamzat!? Gilbert has developed some really slick stand up over the years. Are we forgetting he almost KO’d Usman in 30 seconds!? And, um … he is literally one of the best BJJ players in the world …
It just makes no freaking sense! How is Khamzat a 6-1 favourite!?
It is easy to understand why fans and sharps are puzzled. There are many reasons why Gilbert should at least be given a chance in this fight, being more than a 4-1 underdog seems so extreme!? And you know who agrees? The books!! The books opened this fight at basically even money.
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It is the money that disagrees. The money is telling us that Khamzat has a squash match coming up against the #2 welterweight in the world. And maybe we should listen..
I am curious if others sense the same change in the sport that I do. That there is a new level of athlete beginning to appear on a more regular basis. As the sport grows internationally, we are starting to uncover these freak athletes, who come from hard places. World class athletes who were never given the opportunity to compete internationally. Until now.
And Khamzat might be the ultimate example..
Are we sure we fully understand the level of athlete that Khamzat Chimaev is?
Khamzat grew up in war torn Chechnya as a wrestler, and usually with wrestlers, we can contextualize and have some sort of idea of where they stand. Were they D1, or an all American, an Olympian? But with Khamzat, there were big questions left unanswered. He had Olympic aspirations, but visa issues ultimately ended his amateur wrestling career. But from the information we do have, he seemed to be pretty good..
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Like what the heck. Granted, I am no amateur wrestling expert. But this seems to be pretty damn impressive. Not only was he undefeated in 24 matches, he only gave up a total of 8 points!?
Khamzat has also provided some insight on the level of competition he’s faced and how he did in one of his recent interviews with ESPNs Brett Okamoto.
He mentioned earlier in the interview that he didn’t lose for like 7 years. And we got to see him wrestle Jack Hermansson in an exhibition! Jack is a very respectable wrestler, he was a national wrestling champion and fights in a weight class higher, so it was a decent litmus test. Khamzat completely dominated, beating him 8-0.
We have zero evidence Khamzat Chimaev has faced any sort of adversity in any organized sporting endeavour he has ever participated in. Has Khamzat ever lost, anything? Has he even been fucking challenged!?!
What if the only challenge available to Khamzat as a wrestler were the other best in the world.
Or! How about, lets gets crazy!
What if, the other best amateur wrestlers in the world would have still lost to Khamzat.
What if, given the chance he could’ve been an amateur wrestling GOAT!?
Obviously, those are crazy assumptions to make. But the point is, we have no freaking idea what his athletic ceiling is! He is now facing some of the best in the world in MMA, and still. No adversity. No resistance.
I think that is what the money is trying to tell us. That Khamzat Chimaev, as an athlete, is on a completely different level than Gilbert Burns. 13 UFC wins, BJJ experience, all that stuff is secondary. It is all secondary to this absolute world class freak athlete. This freak athlete who, thus far, has not seen anything close to a challenge or even resistance in his MMA career.
Its feels like there is something extra special with Khamzat. He doesn’t have an extra step; he has an extra dozen steps.
In Khamzats first 4 UFC fights – he has out struck his opponents 112-1 in significant strikes. He carried the 11th ranked guy across the octagon and nearly killed him with a RNC (this isn’t hyperbole, go watch it again. It was violent). GM3, who is a very respectable middleweight went down after Khamzat threw one punch. And – Khamzat arguably fought some of his toughest competition before he even entered the UFC. He has only fought real guys for most of his 10-fight pro career. And he has steamrolled all of them. It almost doesn’t even matter how “real” any of them were. Every single one of them was so far away from having the ability to beat Khamzat it feels silly to even consider.
Sometimes there are athletes who don’t just seem better than their competition. It resembles something closer to a dad playing a game of pickup with his toddler. Or a grade 2 gym teacher that participates in gym class. Trying to measure their techincal skills, or experience is made redundant. They are not competing with their peers. They are wolves playing with their food. And that is what I believe we are seeing with Khamzat. A caliber of athlete we have not seen in the sport before, with the right base and mindset to go unimaginably far in MMA.
Now, trust me, I understand how common it is in MMA that the hype for a fighter out paces’ reality in the betting lines. I literally bet on it every week..
But you don’t have to listen to me. Listen to the people he trains with. They are saying he is better than we’re assuming. The Schmo just posted an interview with the 4th ranked middleweight Sean Strickland, where they both outwardly admitted Khamzat clearly got the better of him, by what sounded like a wide margin!
I’ve said on many occasions that I believe Khamzat Chimaev easily beats Kamaru Usman, and I believe Khamzat Chimaev to be the rightful 6-1 favourite against Gilbert Burns. Obviously, you can never know for sure, it is cage fighting. But I think Khamzat is like nothing we’ve ever seen before..
And based on the reaction and skepticism surrounding the current betting line, and even considering the very substantial hype that already exists, I can not help but wonder if the MMA community as a whole is still greatly unprepared for how good Khamzat Chimaev might be..
TL;DR – In Khamzat Chimaevs 5th UFC fight, he is the 6-1 favourite against one of the best fighters in the world, Gilbert Burns. Not only is Burns one of the best fighters in the world. He brings a style matchup that should give Borz his first real test in his MMA career.
But still, the money has flooded the line and Borz is a massive favourite.
It is not uncommon in MMA that a fighter with massive hype will see that hype reflected in the betting lines. But it is uncommon to see it to this degree..
This is an extraordinary betting line, to reflect an extraordinary talent and athlete in Khamzat Chimaev.
The confusion and reaction to the betting is understandable, but it also is an indication that even considering the substantial hype that already exists around Khamzat, the MMA community is not prepared for how good Khamzat Chimaev may ultimately be..