UFC Fight Night – Walker vs Hill – Bets

Jesse Strader TKO +425 (19.05%) – .25u

Ok, this is not exactly a UFC caliber fight. Chad Anheliger could grind out a win, or stop the fight, but he keeps his hands really low. But there is no reason for him to be this big of a favourite. And I am willing to place a small bet that Strader is gonna catch him, because he does have some power.

David Onama ML -165 (62.26%) – 2.5u

I am a big believer in Onama, and this is a great stylistic matchup for him. I think he gets the TKO, but playing it safe with a solid ML bet.

Joaquin Buckley ML -170 (62.96%) – 2.5u
Joaquin Buckley SUB +1800 (5.26%) – .25u

Ok – I am a little nervous about this one. I really hope Joaquin Buckley plays it safe and grinds Alhassan down, especially early. If he chooses to just put on a show and ‘stand and bang’, then all the more power to him, but the odds in this fight change significantly.

But Buckley showed a willingness to shoot for the takedown in his last fight, and the hope is this fight ends up with Joaquin Buckley on top for much of the fight, and the +1800 sub prop becomes a possibility.

Or – these two will just trade it out, and the first one to connect wins. We’ll see. Please be smart, Joaquin!

Jim Miller ML +147 (40.49%) – 2u
Jim Miller ITD +107 (48.31%) – .25u

This line is ridiculous. Too much emphasis is being put on the age gap, and Motta’s recent win streak.

Jim Miller has the most fights in UFC history! And he is a tough style matchup for Motta. Motta has a reputation as a power puncher, but as he’s fought better guys on his way to the UFC, the KOs have not come as easily, and actually getting a KO in the UFC is entirely different – especially against a guy like Jim Miller!

Kyle Daukaus TKO +650 (13.33%) – .25u

Ok – I was going to avoid this fight. Didn’t really like any of the lines, nor did I trust either of them. Both these guys feel like candidates to under or over perform. Hard to get a read.

But – watching closer, I think Kyle Daukaus’ power and striking is being undervalued, and Pickett can get clipped. Daukaus has clipped guys in fights before, happy to take a small flier at +650

Bautista TKO – Milller ITD – Buckley ITD – Onama TKO – Strader TKO – Walker TKO PARLAY +119521 (.08%) – .1u
Bautista TKO – Milller ITD – Buckley ITD – Onama TKO PARLAY +5596 (1.76%) – .25u

Ok, I will be honest here. When I started this website, and started tracking and posting my bets, I told myself that I would generally avoid parlays. I was going to take a more conservative approach, find the value in lines – and long term I will have a solid track record.

But – the more I’ve thought about it, these low risk, high reward plays seem to be an effective way to utilize leverage in betting. I will absolutely still be very diligent about each pick I make, and I will treat these as more “fun” plays. But I am curious to see if I can get lucky and make one of these work some day. Would really only take one to be worth it.

Also – and once again, to be completely honest, cashing a big play like this would be a great way to build my reputation. As that is my key focus, as I do not sell ads on my site, and I do not sell my picks.

Bautista – Pearce – Onama – Porter – Skelly – Miller – Buckley PARLAY +2031 (4.69%) – .25u
Bautista – Onama – Miller PARLAY +415 (19.42%) – .5u

Small plays on a group of my favourite picks. And slightly bigger play on my 3 favorite.

Fight Night – Walker vs Hill – Honourable Mentions

Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin – 135 pounds – Bantamweight

One of the best fights on the card is the first fight of the night!

Mario Bautista is a really solid fighter in an insanely stacked division, and I think there is some potential there. His last fight was a flash KO loss to the really tough Trevin Jones. And his loss before that was to one of the best in the division, Cory Sandhagen! Mario has some really clean and powerful striking and has a well rounded game. I would not be surprised to see him pull a win streak together. I am looking forward to seeing him compete. He is good and exciting.

His opponent is making his UFC debut after making his rounds in some of the best pro MMA organizations in the world. He’s well rounded and will probably ok with keeping it on the feet – but his path to victory will most likely come from his grappling.

Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta – 155 pounds – Lightweight

What a clash of styles and careers we have here.

First – this should be a pretty classic grappler vs striker matchup. Jim has 18 career submissions! Whereas Nikolas Motta has finished 8 of his 12 careers wins via TKO.

Jim is about to set a record for the most fights in UFC history with 39! And Motta will be making his UFC debut.

Should be fun, always a treat to watch Jim Miller. And the line here is super interesting..

Kyle Daukaus vs Jamie Pickett – 195 pounds – Catchweight

A bout between two underachievers who I don’t want to see lose!!

Both these guys are better than their records. And neither of these guys can afford to lose another fight.

Kyle Daukaus is most well known for his submission game, with 8 of his 10 wins coming via submission – but don’t sleep on his striking. He is long and can catch you with with his hands.

Jamie Pickett is coming off a unanimous decision win and now has won 2 straight in the UFC. And even after two straight wins, it just feels like there is more there to show with Jamie Pickett. And it was interesting, Jamie actually said the same after his most recent win.

Both these guys are good, I’m looking forward to seeing who can execute.

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Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill – Light Heavyweight – 205 pounds

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This was a fun and interesting main card fight that is now a somewhat weak main event. Neither of these guys have had the perfect start to their young UFC careers, but they are both still potential contenders in the UFC light heavyweight division.

And what makes this fight really interesting – is that this fight feels like a ‘one or the other’ kind of situation. Where one of these two could establish themselves as a future potential contender, but it is unlikely they both will be. And there is no better way to find out then lock them in the octagon!

Johnny Walker is interesting. He developed a reputation as a wild man with some highlight reel KOs, beginning his UFC career 3-0 with 3 1st round KO wins. But has since had trouble producing the same results after fighter the upper echelon of the 205 pound division. He is 1-3 in his last 4, and that one win came after being in the verge of deafeat to Ryan Spann. Walkers most recent fight was against of the divisions best, Thiago Santos. And he lost the fight via unanimous decision, but it was one of his more interesting performances. It was not the usual wild man approach, where his vulnerable chin would be tested hunting for the KO. He was much more patient and showed a better takedown defence. It is really difficult to assume a fighter is going to be able to get back to their winning ways after a losing streak, but Johnny Walker has showed signs of improvement. And he has many natural abilities and attributes working in his favour. The only thing that really matters is results, and he has not had positive results for some time. But I think we have reason to hold out hope that Johnny Walker can turn it around.

Jamahal Hill might be best known for that gruesome arm injury he suffered at UFC 263 to Paul Craig. But he has had a fairly successful start to his UFC career, finishing 3 of his 4 wins via KO. Hill has had only one contest against a truly established UFC fighter, and that was his loss to Paul Craig. If you’re going to be fighting the lower end of the UFCs 205 division, KOs are what you want to see. 

Both these guys are most likely going to want to keep it standing, but the first guy to to show a willingness to mix it up may have an advantage. The betting line is heavily in Jamahal Hills favour, but I believe the Walkers high level experience, and possibility for either of these guys to get clipped it being discounted too much.

We’ll learn a lot about both of these guys after this fight, important for both their careers.

Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan – Middleweight – 185 pounds

Now this is an all-violence matchup.

Joaquin Buckley is most well known for his all time highlight reel spinning kick KO. I’ve watched a lot of fights over the years, and that was one of the most memorable KOs I’ve witnessed. And Buckley is much more than just that one KO! He is a good fighter and has the potential to be a top 10 fighter at 185. He’s just had issues putting a string of wins together. He got clipped and KOd by Kevin Holland, who now fights at 170. And was also KOd in a fight where he was 3-1 favourite against Alessio Di Chirico. But I’m not ready to sleep on Joaquin Buckley as a top 10 fighter. He has a lot of skills and some fight changing power.

But if you are susceptible to getting caught and KOd, Abdul Razak Alhassan is a dangerous fight. All of his 11 professional wins have come via 1st round KO. All of them!! His path to victory is as clear as there is for any fighter in the UFC. He is looking to catch you in the first round. His 3 losses all came when his opponent found a way to extended the fight and Alhassan had troubles staying as dangerous after the 1st round.

Buckley may be happy to stand and trade, but that could be an unnecessary risk considering both their histories. This fight could be pure violence, but I am curious to see how Buckley approaches this fight.

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Gabriel Benítez vs David Onama – Featherweight – 145 pounds

This will be a fun one! And could potentially feature a future contender at 145 pounds.

Fans may remember David Onama from his gutsy late notice performance against blue chip prospect, Mason Jones. There were so many things working against Onama in that fight. He was literally on vacation having drinks when he got the call. Not an ideal way to start your UFC career. He was also tasked with a very difficult style matchup! Jones is one of the most interesting prospects in the sport, and has often utilized his grappling to win fights – and he was the Cage Warriors Welterweight champ!! David Onama is a more natural featherweight. And even taking a bad stylistic matchup against a physically much larger opponent on late notice – he still almost won!!

I can not wait to see what David Onama can do at 145 pounds. All of David Obama’s 8 pro wins have come via finish, and he also has a 10-0 amateur record. 145 is one of the deepest divisions in the sport, and getting to the top is difficult. But David Onama is a really fun new addition to the weight class.

Onama will have a good opportunity to display his skills and get a sense of where he belongs in the UFC with his fight against Gabriel Benitez. Benitez has been in the UFC since 2014 and has traded wins and losses throughout his UFC career. He’s had troubles when fighting the upper end of the UFC featherweight division, so if David Onama can put him away we’ll begin to get a good sense of what we have in him.

Should be a fun style matchup as well.

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Event Preview – Fight Night Walker vs Hill

Ok – I can’t lie to my dozens of readers. This card is thin. The card, on paper, looked kinda fun when we had RDA vs Fiziev in the main event. But now, there are almost zero high stakes contests on the card. There is not one fight that is featuring two top 10 fighters – in fact, outside the main event, we don’t even have fights featuring fighters in the top 15! Obviously – each contest has their own high stakes for each competitor. But it’s is very rare that a card does not feature at least one or two fights between ranked fighters.

But that does not mean there is nothing to look forward too. Or that the fights won’t be exciting! There are a bunch of names on this card that fans are interested in. And most of the interesting names and interesting because they are pretty violent.

Let’s find the good for UFC Vegas 48!!

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