Fight Night – Santos vs Ankalaev

Fight Night Santos vs Ankalaev – Bets

March 11, 2022 — Leave a comment

Azamat Murzakanov ML -190 (65.52%) – 2.5u

Azamat might be a serious threat at 205. He might be a little undersized, but he has a good first matchup in his UFC debut. He will be able to out grapple Tafon if he needs to, and he carries serious KO power. But I think they may stall each other out, and this favours Azamat

Guido Cannetti ML +126 (44.25%) – 1u
Guido Cannetti DEC +300 (25%) – .25u

Everyone is praising Moutinho for being able to take a whooping from Suga Sean. But getting battered is not usually a good thing. And he had similar struggles against regional competition. Playing the line here and betting on the UFC vet to grind out a decision.

Damon Jackson ML -115 (53.49%) – 1.5u

Taking Jacksons higher level experience and heavy grapple attack to get the job done here

Javid Basharat ML -148 (59.68%) – 3u
Javid Basharat ITD +165 (37.74%) – 1u

Javid has a really tough fight here. Trevin Jones is good. But I think Javid could make a big splash at 135. I am really excited about this guy. He looks like a serious athlete and is dangerous every where the fight goes. If Javid isn’t able to overwhelm him with superior skills early, I expect he will be able to wear him down and take him out late. Really looking forward to this one.

AJ Fletcher ML +168 (37.31%) – 1u
AJ Fletcher ITD +300 (25.00%) – .25u

AJ Fletcher has not fought the best competition, and there is a good chance he runs into someone who is too good and too experienced pretty early in his UFC career, but – he is a solid athlete and is very explosive. And he has enough skills to get himself to the UFC. I do not think Semelsberger will be able to establish his striking from a distance with Fletcher in his face and changing levels. I think Fletcher catches him faking a takedown, or wears him down and subs him.

Alex Pereira ML -190 (65.52%) – 3.5u
Alex Pereira ITD -150 (60.00%) – 1.5u
Alex Pereira TKO RD1 +165 (37.74%) – .25u

Ok, we gotta be careful here. This will most likely be two dudes who love to finish throwing down. And Bruno Silva will probably threaten level changes which will add to his ways to win.

But – this feels like a showcase fight for Alex Pereira. Both these guys are going to want to strike and, on paper, Alex Pereira has a large advantage. He was a Glory champ and one of the best kickboxers in the world! And, even when he did lose to other high level kickboxers, he was known for having a chin. Hard to imagine Bruno Silva will be able to catch him.

Terrance McKinney ML +135 (42.55%) – 3u
Terrance McKinney ITD +200 (33.33%) – .75u
Terrance McKinney SUB +425 (19.05%) – .25u

I think highly of Drew Dober, but I am surprised to see McKinney as the underdog here. McKinney is a terrible matchup for Dober. McKinney showed his high quality grappling skills in his last fight, and I expect him to do the same here against the striker Drew Dober.

Plus, McKinney is the younger fighter with the momentum. Happy to bet this line.

Sodiq Yusuff DEC +165 (37.74%) – .75u

I don’t love the ML line, I am gonna chalk up the favourites in the 3 final fights and play it that way.

So for this fight I am throwing a dart on Yusuff by decision. He has not shown he can take out UFC caliber fighters, and Caceres is tough to take out. But Sodiq could easily find Caceres’ chin and take him out. So small play.

Song Yadong RD 2 +450 (18.18%) – .25u
Song Yadong RD 3 +900 (10.00%) – .25u

We all know Marlon will be dangerous in the first round, and as the fight goes it will favour Song. So throwing small darts he takes Marlon out in either of the later rounds. Will have him in a chalk parlay

Magomed Ankalaev UNAM DEC +200 (33.33%) – .5u

I really didn’t like any of the lines for this fight. And it is hard to know what to expect from Santos. But Thiago has been very hesitant in his last few. Betting we see a clear win for Magomed, but not enough action for the fight to be finished.

We could see Magomed steamroll an over the hill fighter. But I don’t like betting on assumptions. Magomeds two most recent fights have gone to decision, so betting on that.

Yusuff – Song – Ankalaev PARLAY +115 (46.51%) – 2.5u

Large chalk bet final 3 fights of the event. I am considering this 2.5u bet my main way of playing the final 3 fights with heavy favourites. Coupled with my prop darts. Could pay off extra, or I could lose all. We will see!

Murzakanov – Basharat – Pereira – McKinney PARLAY +790 (11.24%) – .75u

My favourite “value” picks parlayed up.

Basharat ITD – Pereira ITD – McKinney ITD PARLAY +1225 (7.55%) – .25u

Small bet on highest conviction props.

Murzakanov – Cannetti – Jackson – Basharat – Fletcher –  Pereira – McKinney – Yusuff – Song – Ankalaev PARLAY +20980 (.47%) – .1u

A second long shot for this week! Taking all my picks and parlying them up.

Cannetti DEC – Basharat ITD – Fletcher ITD – Pereira ITD – McKinney ITD – Yusuff DEC PARLAY +51840 (.19%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

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if you do not know, now you do know – Fight Night Santos vs Ankalaev

March 11, 2022 — Leave a comment

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UFC Vegas 50
Event Preview

This is a sick card. There are a bunch of really exciting prospects in important fights on this card.

These fight nights are the best when we have legitimate fresh talent testing themselves against established UFC fighters. All throughout the card, we have fighters at different stages of their careers. And so often, we are focused on the blue-chip prospect making their debut, or the long time UFC prospect getting a chance to become a true title contender. And for good reason, the prospects and their ceilings are unknown. One of the best parts of being a hardcore UFC fan is looking for the next top 10 fighter or title challenger. But – do not forget about the other side of those fights. These established guys did not train nonstop for an opportunity to become a steppingstone for someone else. Every single one of these established fighters will have their own aspirations and goals they are working towards.

The main event is one of the best examples of these types of fights. Thiago Santos has been around for a long time. He’s had his own ups and downs and he’s had his chance at the title. Thiago Santos is a well-established contender in the UFC – whereas Magomed Ankalaev is probably the best prospect in the world at 205. He had one slip up in the octagon against Paul Craig when he tapped in literally the last second of a fight he was winning handily. This is a fight where we really find out if Ankalaev is a guy that will be a champion one day, and one day soon.

Aside from the main event, this card is full of blue-chip prospects facing well known UFC vets. How many established guys will be able to hold their place in their division? How many of these prospects will prove themselves to be new life in the division!?

Stay tuned. Really looking forward to diving deeper into this one.

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Trevin Jones vs Javid Basharat
Bantamweight – 135 pounds

This is an awesome fight. Both these guys have serious skills. They may not have huge names (yet), or the best records, or the most extensive experience – but they are both really good. Great examples of why this bantamweight division is the most competitive in the sport and will continue to be so for a long time. 

Trevin Jones has a rough looking record; he started his pro career 6-4! But he found his stride and worked his way into the UFC and has had success! Trevin debuted in the UFC in 2020 and has gone 2-1 (He has 1 no contest b/c of the weed). But he is coming off a loss to Saidyokub Kakhramonov, losing via guillotine choke in the final seconds of the fight. Trevins first two UFC wins came via TKO, but he’s a well rounded fighter with a BJJ black belt.

Now his opponent – Javid Basharat, is making his UFC debut. He is coming off an extremely impressive DWCS performance against an opponent that was 16-0. Javid has finished all his pro fights with 5 TKOs and 6 subs. And he displayed this well rounded skill set in his DWCS fight. He was on a completely different level of ability and athleticism in comparison to his opponent. And this could potentially say more about his opponent, but I am really excited to see this guy perform. He might be a serious threat at 135. You can never know for certain how good a guy is until they’ve tested themselves against a legit UFC fighter, and that is the opportunity Javid will have here.

But we could potentially see Javid prove himself to be a serious blue chip prospect. He looks like a serious athlete and has been a life long martial artist. I am intrigued. AND Trevin is a good fighter and will be a really good test.

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Bruno Silva vs Alex Pereira
Middleweight – 185 pounds

Alex Pereira! The world class kick-boxer who holds a KO victory over the Middleweight champ, Israel Adesanya. He is coming off a highlight reel flying knee KO in his UFC debut, and he has a really fun fight in Bruno Silva.

Bruno Silva has won 7 straight fights, and has finished all those fight via TKO.

We have very good reason to believe this fight is going to be all violence. There is also good reason to believe we will have an exciting prospect emerge from this contest.

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Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney
Lightweight – 155 pounds

We didn’t know we were getting this fight up until recently, and after Drew Dober’s opponent dropped out and Terrance McKinney cruised to any easy victory a couple weeks ago – it made for a great addition to this card.

I am not surprised McKinney got a quick turn around, but I am surprised they gave him Drew Dober.

Terrance has won 5 straight fights. All via 1st round finish, including 2 wins in the UFC. He was a high quality college wrestler and is a high quality athlete. But Drew Dober is a big step up in competition and experience level.

Don’t let Drew Dobers record fool you. He is a solid fighter, and well established in the UFCs lightweight division. He first debuted in the UFC in 2013 and has accumulated a respectable UFC record of 9-7 with 1 NC. Dober has had some solid wins in the UFC and has fought some of the best in the sport. He is well known for his technical and powerful striking, but has had issues when tasked with a heavy grappling opponent.

Terrance is one of the most exciting prospects and potential stars in the sport, and he if can keep his finishing streak going against a solid fighter and vet like Drew Dober, that will be really impressive. And interesting..

But if Terrance can’t get past a 17 fight UFC vet in his 3rd UFC fight, lets not be too quick to count him.

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Alex Caceres vs Sodiq Yusuff
Featherweight – 145 pounds

Did you know Alex Caceres has won 5 fights in a row!? Well he has. And his last 2 wins have both come via rear naked choke!

At only 33 years old it is hard to believe Alex Caceres has been in the UFC for 12 years. the fans have always rooted for Alex, but he has struggled to maintain a winning record in the UFC. Up until now! Alex is currently riding his longest UFC win streak ever. You have to be impressed with Alex Caceres’ staying power, and it is even more impressive he is doing his best work in year 12 of his UFC stint! That level of determination and focus is very admirable, and it seems to be one of the best skill sets for someone who wants to to stick around the UFC for a long time. We should cherish guys like Alex Caceres! And he has improved his skill set so much over these 12 years. He’s is a very well rounded fighter! He has great footwork with his strikes, and is a real submission threat on the ground. We should know by now to not sleep on Alex Caceres.

But people seem to be sleeping on Alex Caceres in this fight considering he is a 2-1 underdog against Sodiq Yusuff.

This is a rare situation where the established UFC vet is on a win streak, and the prospect is coming off a loss. Sodiq started his career 4-0 in the UFC and was earmarked as one of the best prospects at 145. But he ran into Arnold Allen in his last contest and lost the first 2 rounds of that fight convincingly. Now Sodiq isn’t done as a prospect, not even close. But he couldn’t get passed Arnold Allen, he’s been away for nearly a year and this fight against Alex Caceres is a must win. I expect Sodiq to try and find Alex’s chin and put him away.

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Marlon Moraes vs Yadong Song
Bantamweight – 135 pounds

Boy. Talk about a do or die fight..

Marlon Moraes was a few well-placed punches away from becoming the champ of the best division in the entire sport. And since then, he’s lost 4 straight (he lost to Aldo), and the 3 most recent losses have come via finish. Marlon might be the most dangerous fighter in the world for the first half of the 1st round, but he will absolutely fall off after that. Tons of fighters have bad gas tanks. Tons of fighters get tired, but Marlon has had some different level struggles as of late. His last fight was a perfect example! Almost took out the very tough Merab Dvalishvili early, then faded in the first and suffered more than 100 consecutive unanswered strikes and was finished in the 2nd.

And Marlon will be in tough against one of the most exciting prospects in the sport, Yadong Song. The 24-year-old is coming off two huge victories against two really good guys. Casey Kenney was a huge win for Song. Kenny was coming off a close fight against one of the 135 GOATs, Dominick Cruz. And Song won pretty convincingly (despite the official split decision). He then finished a very game Julio Arce.

Song has lots of experience for only being 24 years old, and he is a very good athlete. He has very quick hands and appears to be getting better very quickly. He is someone to watch.

This is about as “crossroads” as crossroads fights get. Marlon makes a good amount of money, if he loses this fight, it will be hard to justify holding that spot for him in the UFC. And Song could be on his way to some title eliminators in the near future..

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Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev
Light Heavyweight – 205 pounds

Magomed may be the best fighter at 205 right now. The 29-year-old Russian is 16-1 in MMA and has won 7 straight fights in the UFC. He can knock you out, or he can wrestle you and keep you on your back. He is going to be tough for anyone to handle at 205. He feels destined for the title, especially nowadays at 205. It is wide open.

Magomed is in his first main event against UFC staple and former title challenger, Thiago Santos. Thiago has lost 3 of his last 4, and you could argue his most recent fight which was a win, was his worst performance. In his 25 minute fight with Johnny Walker, he landed 44 strikes! 44!! It was a terrible fight. Thiago’s stock might have gone down. Thiago just has not looked like the same fighter as of late.

And as much as we all would love to see the hammer come back out, it is hard to imagine at this point. And the betting line seems to agree. Magomed is as high as a 6-1 favourite in some places. We may be looking at the next 205-pound champ earning his shot at the title in this one.

if you do not know, now you do know