UFC Fight Night Makhachev vs Green  – Honourable Mentions

Alejandro Perez vs Jonathan Martinez – 145 pounds – Featherweight

These two Bantamweights will fight at 145 this Saturday! I was interested in putting a flier on Perez, but weight issues are not a good sign (It was reported to be Perez who requested the weight change despite Martinez being the one with the weight issues in the past).

And Jonathan Martinez still could put it together and realize his potential. He is still so young, he’s got lots of time to turn the corner.

So no bet on this one. Will watch happily from the sidelines.

Gregory Rodrigues vs Armen Petrosyan – 185 pounds – Middleweight

Two DWCS alum who do not like to go to a decision! And this is a pretty classic grappler vs striker matchup.

Rodrigues definitely carries some solid power and is not bad on the feet overall. But his chin is very suspect, he will be far better off using his world class BJJ.

Armen Petrosyan is going to carry some serious power down to the middleweight division. He is an experienced striker and will be a threat for the KO against a chinny opponent the whole fight.

Lets see who can execute! Should be fun either way.

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UFC Fight Night Makhachev vs Green – Bets

Terrance McKinney ML -105 (51.22%) – 2.5u

This is a great matchup for Terrance McKinney and his career. He is building a reputation as a KO artist, but his background is wrestling. So matching him up with an experienced striker is a great next step. How can he hang on the feet? Can he last if the KO doesnt come? Will he change levels?

Lots of questions. But my money is on Terrance figuring it out. And he can wrestle if he needs to. Happy to bet him at basically even money.

Josiane Nunes ITD -120 (54.55%) – 2u
Josiane Nunes RD 1 +165 (37.74%) – .5u

Nunes is a bulldog. And has some serious power. And her opponent? Ramona Pascual.. Well –

She seems like a really cool person. She has a Ted Talk on Youtube! And she has been a pro since 2016. But she is accepting this fight on really short notice. And I am not sure she is even a true professional MMA fighter, let alone UFC caliber.

I think we might see a quick one here – I honestly kind of hope I’m wrong. Because this one might be ugly..

Zhu Rong ML +170 (37.04%) – 1u
Zhu Rong SUB +1000 (9.09%) – .25u

I was gonna bet even smaller on this one until Zhu Rong missed weight. And I know that might sound weird. But I was leaning Zhu Rong at these odds because I thought his heavy style would be a good counter to Ignacio. Zhu Rong would have big hard punches down the middle, and would lean on Ignacio. Chain wrestle and mix up strikes. More ways to win.

But now that I know he is literally heavy going into this fight, I added a bit of conviction.

Gregory Rodrigues SUB +275 (26.67%) – .5u

Ok so as the week went by, conviction in this pick slowly dwindled. I just can’t trust Rodrigues’ chin.

But – I will stick with my original assumption of what his best path to victory is. And throw a dart on the BJJ ace submitting the striker.

Joel Alvarez ML +175 (36.36%) – 1.5u
Joel Alvarez ITD +225 (28.17%) – .75u

Ok – so I can’t lie to my dozens of readers. Before I started publicly posting my bets, I faded Joel Alvarez hard. I really thought Thiago Moises was a bad matchup for him. That was a tough loss at ~-260.

So maybe I am just some Degenerate Mark chasing cash after the last guy I seen win..

But I think Joel Alvarez is a serious threat at 155. He is enormous. And he has some really clean and powerful striking. Plus he has 16 wins via submission!? Is Arman sure he wants to wrestle??

But Arman is so good too, it is hard to have too much conviction here. Arman might be the one who dictates where the fight takes place, and as the fight goes it will get harder for Joel to find the sub.

So be careful. I think we are all gonna have a second chance to bet on this fight one day anyways…

Misha Cirkunov ML -125 (55.56%) – 1.5u

I wish I could have more conviction in this pick. I don’t think Turman should have anything for Misha. But one thing I have learned in my years betting MMA, be careful with guys who haven’t won recently.

It’s like buying a falling stock. Are you sure you know why this isnt working? Tough recent stretch? Or are they about to go bankrupt..

I’m buying the dip on Misha Cirkunov. But I’m being careful.

Makhachev vs Green OVER 2.5 -105 (51.22%) – 2.5u
Islam Makhachev DEC +310 (24.39%) – .75u

I really like this bet.

Nearly 49% of Lightweight fights go the distance.
38% of Islam Makhachevs wins have come via decision (I’d also bet this number is more likely to go up over time).
46% of Bobby Greens fights have gone the distance. 78% of Bobby Greens UFC fights have gone the distance!

Islam is the rightful favourite here. But I am happy to bet that there is a 24% chance Islam Makhachev takes Bobby Green to a decision. Bobby is tough! I’d be surprised if Islam just steamrolls Bobby early. Think this one gets drawn out. Most my bet is on a simple over 2.5, gotta be responsible.

McKinney – Nunes – Cirkunov PARLAY +413 (19.49%) – .75u

A way of adding a bit more to a few of my favourite plays. I didn’t want to add Makhachev. Didn’t think the small change in odds was worth it.

McKinney – Nunes – Zhu Rong – Rodrigues – Alvarez – Cirkunov – Makhachev PARLAY +6716 (1.46%) – .25u

Parlaying up my picks. Bless.

McKinny ITD – Nunes RD 1 – Rodrigues SUB – Alvarez ITD –  Cirkunov ITD – Makhachev DEC PARLAY +93627 (.11%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

These long shot parlays are definitely going to be a mainstay from now on btw…
They are fun!

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Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green – Catchweight – 160 pounds

The fight we didn’t know we wanted. But we are sure glad to be getting. It really feels like there is something in the air with this one. Maybe its because the uncrowned champ is about to slaughter a late replacement. Or maybe it is because Bobby Green is about to have his Jorge Masvidal moment..

What does that mean exactly? ‘A Jorge Masvidal moment’

Well, much like Jorge Masvidal, Bobby Green has been a well-respected veteran in the UFC (and Strikeforce) for more than a decade. You know how they say, “there are no easy fights in the UFC” – well, they are talking about guys like Jorge Masvidal and Bobby Green. These mainstays who can hang with anyone in the world. The guys who may take home an L every once and awhile, but they will always bring the fight.

A ’Jorge Masvidal moment’ is when a fighter who has paid their dues with the best in the world, finally breaks through.

I think “journeyman” can have a negative connotation to it, but if you’re referring to a “UFC journeyman”, a fighter that has stuck around through multiple generations of fighters, that should be considered a huge compliment. You know how hard it is to be good enough to be competitive in the UFC and be entertaining and do it for like 15 years!? These fan favourites that can stick around deserve a ton of respect. And their skills also deserve a ton respect.

Because Bobby Green is damn a good example of a “UFC journeyman” and he is a damn good fighter. Since 2019 Bobby is 5-2 in the UFC, and if you’ve watched the two losses – you might not hold them against Bobby too much. First of all, he should have won that Moises fight. And Fiziev might be fighting for the title this time next year, and Bobby looked great! He has been on a really good run over these last two years.

The thing we are all wondering is, how will Bobby’s wrestling hold up. Because he has a tall task in front of him in Islam Makhachev. Islam Makhachev feels destined for the title. It’s all but assumed Khabibs predecessor, is going to Khabib his way to the title. And I’d guess he would be the betting favourite against Gaethje and Oliveira. And to be honest, I wasn’t so sure the hype was deserved up until recently. But he seems to have found a different gear in these last two fights, and especially his last fight against Dan Hooker. Hooker is really good! And Islam made it look easy.

Last note on this fight – the line for this fight is whack. I can’t get over it. I want to make the books pay. Stupid casuals..

Might have a juicy bet for this one.

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Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez – Lightweight – 155 pounds

This fight. Oh man… This fight. I can not wait. For this fight!! Remember when I said the best fights typically involve the best fighters? Well, this is one of those fights.

The most competitive fight Islam Makhachev has been in recently, was against Arman Tsarukyan. Arman put up a great fight in his UFC debut against who many believe to be the uncrowned best in the world at 155. And Arman reminds me a lot of Islam. A really strong and relentless grappler, who also has some solid striking. Arman is absolutely a guy who could make his way to the title. That loss to Islam does not mean he can’t get it back, he was only 22 at the time! (Don’t forget, Islam lost his second UFC fight) Arman has since won 4 straight and it looks like the only people who will be able to beat him are the Islam Makhachevs of the world.

Which brings us to his opponent, Joel Alvarez. Joel looks like he might be an absolute monster. And I mean that quite literally. He is a 6’2 lightweight! One of the biggest questions coming into this fight is if he can even make weight. But if he can be a healthy 155’er. Oh boy. Look out. We may have something on our hands here.

Joel Alvarez also lost his UFC debut to one of the best in the world, Damir Ismagulov (if you don’t know who he is now, you will soon). But he has also won 4 straight in the UFC since his debut loss! Alvarez has 19 pro wins – and all 19 wins have come via finish! He has 16 wins by submission, and 3 by KO. But what is most interesting to me, is how rapidly Joel Alvarez seems to be improving. He has looked progressively better after each UFC win, but he had a big step up in competition in his last outing against top ranked contender Thiago Moises. Joel went into that fight as +210 underdog, but he absolutely steamrolled Moises. Overwhelmed him and hammered him with elbows until the ref had to step in and save his damn life. It was a mauling, and Moises was just coming off a main event spot against Islam! And Joel made him look like he didn’t even belong in the same organization! Islam didn’t do that to Thiago Moises..

Was that last performance just a beneficial style matchup? Or was it just straight up unfair, Joel did miss the 156 pound limit by 1.5 pounds. Or maybe it was a true breakout performance from one the sports best prospects.

Before we get too excited about Joel Alvarez, we need to know he can be a healthy lightweight. It’ll be something to watch Friday.

But if we can get a healthy version of these two on Saturday – this is arguably the most compelling fight on the card.   

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Ignacio Bahamondes vs Zhu Rong – Lightweight – 155 pounds

Feels like this fight is really flying under the radar. Ignacio is definitely getting some love, he was a DWCS guy and has had some high-quality highlight reel KOs to start his UFC career. But his opponent, Zhu Rong, is being a slept on. This has all the makings of a really fun and competitive fight.

The 24-year-old Ignacio Bahamondes has that sniper like striking. One of those guys that can catch you with a clean and precise counter strike. Or he’ll throw out a wheel kick in the final seconds of a fight that will flatline his opponent (this KO was way underlooked in the 2021 KO of the year discussion). He’s also showed some pretty solid takedown defense! But he also seems to get his a lot..

Ignacio could be a top guy at 155? Hard to know for sure, we’ll see how it goes. But I do think its safe to assume this guy can at least stick around and become a fan favourite. I am definitely looking forward to seeing him compete.

His opponent is Zhu Rong. The 21-year-old Chinese lightweight is 1-1 in the UFC, and he is a solid fighter himself. He’s got quick hands and will mix it up and become a chain wrestler if that is what is working. He’s got some power, finishing 12 of his 18 wins via TKO and he looked really strong in his last outing in the UFC against a very tough MMA vet, Brandon Jenkins.

Ignacio seems like the one people have their eye on, but we shouldn’t be sleeping on Zhu Rong. Both these young lightweights will put on a great fight and could be fighters we are going to see a lot more of down the road in the UFC. I am really looking forward to this one.

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Terrance McKinney vs Fares Ziam – Lightweight – 155 pounds

Terrance McKinney is interesting.

His story is crazy – there is a good chance the first time you encountered Terrance McKinney was the viral video where he was tased by police because he was tripping out on drugs! He died twice in the hospital!! These crazy moments can change peoples lives – and it seems Terrance McKinney used his crazy life changing moment to change his life for the better.

Terrance has a big personality, and a great story. He has all the makings of a potential star! But can he fight? Because there is a limit on how big someone can be if they can’t fight with the best in the world.

Terrance is early in his UFC career, but so far so good. He KOd an established UFC fighter in 7 seconds in his UFC debut! Terrance enters the fight winning 4 straight, all via TKO in the 1st round. Terrance’s background is in wrestling, but he is also ultra aggressive, and carries a ton of power and speed.

And he will have an interesting style matchup in the Frenchmen, Fares Ziam. Fares is 2-1 in the UFC and would be best described as a striker. He has a background in kickboxing, and typically prefers to strike and pick his shots from distance.

From a stylistic matchup, we could have a classic striker vs wrestler fight ahead of us. But Terrance McKinney has not really looked like a chain wrestler as of late. He has been looking Bangkok ready!

I am looking forward to seeing what we have in Terrance McKinney. This fight will be interesting.

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Event Preview – Fight Night Makhachev vs Green

I had a lot of fun researching this card. There are a lot of competitive matchups to like. And a bunch of really talented fighters.

This feels like a good time to remind you of a simple rule in MMA. Good fighters make for the best fights. Yes, sometimes wacky characters who “throw down” can be fun too. Its cage fighting, it’s all fun. But, the best fights usually involve the best in the world.

Whenever a card is stacked with talent that could potentially become the best in the world, it should be enough to get excited! And there are so many fighters on this card that look like they could be the real deal.

And how can you not love what Bobby Green is doing here. What a matchup up this is, kinda feels like Bobby is about to become the new Jorge Masvidal. Kudos to the UFC creative team. This is great stuff.

And what the heck is going on with the betting line!? Islam is a -1000 favourite in some places! I mean, I kinda get it. But idk. That alone kinda makes this fight interesting..

Looking forward to diving in!

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