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UFC Vegas 72 – Bets

April 28, 2023 — Leave a comment

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Woof, this is a rough Apex card. This might be the worst card of the year. But we will still try and cash in on some reads.

Josh Quinlan vs Trey Waters is an interesting line. Quinlan is only 6-0, and has 1 win in the UFC, but he looks like someone to watch. He also has 6 amatuer fights, and he has stopped all but one of those 13 fights inside the distance. His last decision was his 2nd amatuer fight, since then he’s been in the 3rd round only twice! His UFC debut was against Jason Witt, who is far from a world beater, but he has won UFC fights! And Josh cleaned him in 2 minutes. Josh looks quick and athletic, and his opponent, Trey Waters is taking this fight on a weeks notice. Waters is solid, but I think he will be a step behind Josh and will be vulnerable to his power. Like Josh to finish this one.

Buday is on the way up, and Collier looks like someone closing out his time in the worlds top MMA promotion. Buday should be able to lean on and wear down Collier.

I expect Erosa to prove himself to be a different level than the UFC newcomer, Fernando Padilla. Both guys are dangerous … and vulnerable. So at the least I expect to see this find end.

Brundage has the wrestling to keep Vieira off him, and as the fight gets extended Vieira has proven in the past that he has issues staying in the fight. Brundage as a dog, and some juice on him winning late is an interesting play here.

Caio Borralho has a favourable matchup here against Michal Oleksiejcuk. Caio has the striking to stay safe and utilize his best PTV which is his grappling. Caio will have the strength and size advantage to utilize his grappling effectively. I think Michal Oleksiejcuk is a little tougher than the line is giving him credit for, but its going to be hard for him to take 2 rounds with the type of fight Caio will bring.

I am backing Simon in the main. Ricky has looked fantastic in his last few times out, and his style will be tough for Song to handle. Song has had issues with fighters who grapple him, and Simon will be the best wrestler he has faced in the UFC. Song will be dangerous on the feet, but Simon outwrestling him is all but guaranteed, Song doing enough on the feet to win a 25 minutes fight is far more uncertain. Happy to back who I believe to be the bantamweight darkhorse.

UFC Vegas 71 – Bets

April 21, 2023 — Leave a comment

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Interesting card for betting.

Everyone and their mother seems sure the main event is ending early, and there are obvious reasons for that. Sergei is a mad man, he seemed unstoppable against Tai. And I will not be surprised if the chinny Curtis Blaydes has issues handling the initial onslaught, but Curtis has the tools and the well rounded game to avoid that obvious danger. If they can get out of the 1st round, that O 1.5 will look like free money at +115, and Blaydes DEC at +800 will be LIVE. Small play, but you give me 7.5 minutes of sloppy HW fighting in the small cage and I profit.

I see sharps backing Rosa, and I just don’t get it. Dumont at close to even money, I believe, will end up looking like a steal. She is the far more aggressive athlete, and much bigger. I like her skillet set over Rosa, level of experience, most recent fights. Happy to back Dumont here.

Tafa and Danaa should both have a clear striking edge, and are dangerous when that’s the case.

Brad Tavares has always come up short fighting the very best, but he is a true top 15 UFC middleweight. Dare I say he is underrated. I expect him to prove himself to be a different level than the faltering Bruno Silva. People love to give Bruno Silva credit for going 3 rounds with Alex Pereira, but he was rocked bad 2 different times, and most recently he was pieced up by decorated and feared striker Gerald Meerschaert. Can also use Tavares as a bit of a hedge since he’s late on the card.

Good luck, degens!!