15 minute read. TL;DR at the end.
Highlights in bold for quick scim

First off, what I’ve learned.
It is hard to make money gambling on cage fighting. Crazy right!? What kind of sicko would think otherwise??

Well, I did. For extended periods of my adult life, I have been that sicko. It seemed so simple, all I had to do was take it serious and track my bets! I’d totally definitely be profitable…

And it’s not like this is my first year gambling, but if you’re not actually tracking your bets it can lead to a false sense of ability and success. Overweighting the genius wins, and discounting the totally not serious losses that you’d never make if you were tracking..

Well, as it turns out, actually tracking your bets and proving you can profitable is completely different.

Gambling is an absolute trip. It’s hard enough to pick winners, but you also have to deal with being an emotional idiot. You’ll start chasing, and overthinking. It is too easy to get in your own head! Because even when you are making a bet with a clear mind, it is hard to find an edge on the books and be consistently profitable.

So the first lesson has been humility. Without question. This game ain’t easy.

I tracked my bets for every UFC event in 2022 (except for Vegas 59 which ended up being a great event for chalky PRPs!! gawd).

Here are the results. Please note the average odds are weighted, meaning a 2u bet at +110 will have a greater impact than a .25u bet at +1000.

I spent the break compiling a more comprehensive set of data for my results.

Here are the numbers;

The takeaways ended up being fairly obvious (lower the odds, higher the hit rates. ML more profitable than props, etc). But I am a fan of data, so I am happy to add this to my tool kit going into the new year. I will continue to add and evolve the data as needed.

I should also note if it wasn’t obvious, these are all self tracked. I am not on betmma.tips. I use Excel to track my bets and I post a graphic of my bets from that Excel file before each event. I make a point to make no edits to that page once the event starts, but more importantly – I have no interest in the appearance of success, I am interested in true success as a capper. I am not selling my bets, I don’t even have ads on my website.

While this first year has been humbling, I am still confident I can figure this out. The first reason is that I am genuinely enjoying it! I love capping fights, worst case scenario I’d be happy to continue doing this as a hobby. However, this is gambling we’re talking about. There can be a fine line between addiction and dedication. One minute you’re “grinding” and “having fun” the next you’ve lost your shirt.

So another source of confidence comes from my years of betting MMA and still having my shirt. I feel confident in saying I will (hopefully) not develop a life crippling gambling addiction at this point. We should always be mindful of the risk, but I am more than happy to paper bet if I need – I did for a stretch of events this year. It’s not even really about the “money”, the focus is more so on my record and developing a profitable process.

Which brings me to what’s next; How my betting process has changed.

How my betting process has changed.
Trying to dial in my betting process has, without question, been the most costly lesson. Because I expected to lose making bad bets and picks; but I did not expect to lose galaxy braining how I bet.

When I started, I was making simple straight bets. Very few parlays. And small total unit sizes. After the first 8 events this year, I was up 24.38u with a 19.62% ROI. What happened after event 9? Well, the 9th event this year was the first UFC London, and it was the first event I built a progressive parlay!
Now, you may be guessing that my next takeaway will be that it was the parlays that got me into trouble..

While this is true, it is not the whole story.

I am a big believer in progressive parlays. IMO – PRPs are a great way to find +EV while also building in some asymmetry. (I’d guess mentioning +EV and parlays in the same sentence would make some people nauseous. But I believe taking high probability events that have reasonable EV, and combining them into one line can produce +EV).

However, my confidence in PRPs is by no means confirmed. There is very real risk on the other side of those favourable returns. Even with a conservative approach, you are putting up a lot of units! If your top line busts you are eating a substantial loss. A few rough events, and you can find yourself in a pretty nasty hole.

This is all still an experiment, and I can rationalize all day, but results level the bullshit. And on the year, I am down on PRPs. But – within the last 13 events I am positive. It is small, 6.22u and 3.57% ROI. But it is a large enough sample size that a reasonable takeaway can be that I have begun to make progress in finding an edge using PRPs. We’ll see.

With all that said, it was the increased focus on parlays and PRPs that got me in trouble this year. Without question.

I tried too hard to make PRPs my own. I had terrible unit allocation. If the top line hits, your PRP should be profitable. Every time.

But my bets for a long stretch in the middle of the year were just a mess. I was far too greedy, chasing what felt like cheap +EV building these Super Genius PRPs.

I ended up with too many units on low conviction plays. I would give back units from a topline win with prop bets. I was just doing way too much, while ultimately having zero focus/direction.

But ~13-14 events ago I started to narrow down a process. And the last 6 events I have been utilizing what I would call a clearly defined and structured process. Highest conviction picks go in the top line of the PRP, the only other bets on those fights will be small units on a juicy line, if at all. I’ll do simple ML bets on other picks, try and throw some darts on some juicy reads. I also use the “Prop PRP” to build in some low risk, high reward plays. Once again, this is very much still a work in progress. But feels like progress nonetheless

Having a dialed in structure helps you focus on what is important. Which brings me to the next topic,

How do you pick winners.
This seems like a good time to redirect you to my record..

With that said, I would like to share some general guidelines I’ve been developing. They’ll mostly be considered “soft” guidelines. Intangibles. Might even seem a little “woo-woo”. But it’s fitting, because even as someone who loves the numbers – gambling is feeling more and more like an art, and less like a quantitative science.

Trust your gut.
Gamblers know, when they know. Yea, know?

I was listening to a trader talk about his time at Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital, and how they leveraged behavioral psychology to help their traders understand themselves better. Their focus was on a well-known concept that first came from an experiment called the Iowa Gambling Task. IGT is a study that measured the stress of their subjects while they selected green and black cards from 4 decks on a computer. There was a financial incentive, and the goal was to pull more green than black. But what the subjects don’t know is 2 decks are good (more green) and 2 decks are bad (more black).

What the study shows – is that after about only 10 selections, the subjects will feel stress when they hover over the bad decks, but despite these negative emotions, the subjects “chase” their losses and pull from the bad decks more frequently! It is after approximately 50 selections the subjects begin to realize there are good and bad decks. Meaning – your intuition will know there is something wrong before your brain (you) is able to figure it out. And during this internal conflict that occurs while losing, it is human nature to let the emotional part of the brain take control, opposed to the analytical.

Or to make a long story short, trust your gut.

This is not some cheat code. In the experiment, you’re still going to pull black cards from the good deck. You’re not suddenly going to bat 100% because you’re super intune with your feelings. Plenty of bets that “feel good” will still lose. Especially if you’re betting primarily on cage fighting like I am.

But the goal should always be to maximize your odds of success. And you are more likely to be successful – in anything – if you understand yourself and your emotions. But especially with something that can be as emotional as gambling or trading!

Don’t bet on bad fighters.
Something that should be obvious but isn’t.

Awh geez, thanks tips. “Don’t bet on bad fighters.” WHO WOULD HAVE EVER THOUGHT.

This might be too trite and obvious to be insightful, but we all do it! Eye up a matchup and a line we like and convince ourselves “Bad Fighter” is worth putting our money on. Without enough consideration being put into who we are putting our money behind.

And this gets tricky. Because if you’re betting on UFC fights, it is easy to convince yourself Bad Fighter is actually Good Fighter! They’re in the UFC!! But, with that said there are some warning signs,

Are they,
– on a losing streak?
– (well) past their prime?
– experienced in fighting, and beating, UFC level competition?
– a good athlete? (The most dedicated and technical fighters usually have ceilings if they are not good athletes)
– well rounded?

Better yet – just ask yourself, do you know they are good? Are they trending up? Could you see them in the top 15? Are they reliable/disciplined people? Are they on a winning streak!?

The point is to look outside the stylistic matchup and also consider who you are putting your money on. Especially for the top line of a PRP.

I am sure I will venture outside of this guideline again soon, but my hope is that I am disciplined enough to limit my exposure.

FYI – I wrote this over the course of the last few months of the year, and the very next event after I wrote this…

smh

Do not assume someone will do something.
The best predictor of what someone will do in the future is what they’ve done in the past.

When someone shows you who they are, believe them.

Far too many times I have deluded myself into believing some hypothetical scenario for how a fight will play out based mostly on assumptions. Assuming a fighter who has landed zero takedowns will be able to win a fight by wrestling. Assuming a fighter will last 3 rounds when they have not proven an ability to do so. Assuming a fighter who hasn’t won in X years can now find a way to win!

Another way to put this; build a picks PTV with skills and attributes they have proven recently to possess.

A few others
– Respect and recognize momentum. Fighters trending up can find new ceilings quick. And fighters trending down will find new lows even quicker.
– Fade chain wrestlers and ‘Madovs with great caution. They don’t go undefeated, I know. But, just… be careful…
– Make a point to consider each specific attribute; striking, grappling, physical attributes, etc. Treat it like a reminder/checklist to make sure there are no blind spots. Sometimes something obvious can fall through the cracks when you fall down the tape study rabbit hole.

Last thing I’ve learned – importance of discipline.
Discipline is an obvious requirement for a handicapper. Basically, everything I’ve written to this point can be summarized as “be more disciplined”.

But it also requires discipline to dedicate the correct amount of time to make educated picks! So, it is also about literal personal discipline. To get where I want to go, I need to be more disciplined.

I need to focus and plan better. There is too much wasted time. Eat and sleep can improve! I am sure that is the same for everyone, we could all improve ourselves and be better. But I would like to use my track record/this website as a form of accountability.

Because I really do enjoy this! Trying to become a good gambler, an actual good gambler, is something I want to dedicate some time to.

PS – What I plan to do with “The Degenerate Mark”
Last quick note. This was initially the co-subject of this post, but rambling about how and why I burned cash betting on cage fighting took up more words than anticipated.

The primary focus currently is on becoming an effective MMA handicapper. But I’d also like to write and/or create content, and I would like to venture outside of MMA! There are a few specific subjects I think would be fun to write about. But once again, this will require more discipline.

Posting my trades like I do my bets would be fun. But I am not ready for that. I think my first financial content will be my crudely worded takes on whatever.

But I am also a total UFO mark. So maybe I will get a little weird with it too…

Lets see what happens! Shoutout to whoever read up to this point 🙂

TL;DR
Gambling on cage fighting is hard.
The first year of tracking bets has been a humbling experience.
Structure, discipline, and your betting process is just as important as being able to pick winners, which is already difficult.
A large focus – at this point in time – is on PRPs (progressive parlays). I am of the opinion they offer good EV and asymmetry.
Learning how to trust my gut, and the fighter I am backing.
Really enjoying the process, while being aware of the risks involved.
Also, discipline. More, discipline.

7 minute read. TL;DR at the end

I know I know – Dana and Jake are feuding!! They are mortal social-media enemies! Jake is going to take on Dana and fix fighter pay!! How could they ever work together!?

First of all, I’m sorry to break the news to you – but Jake Paul isn’t going to make the UFC change how they pay their fighters. Sure, Jake is being an annoyance to Dana and shedding light on an important topic. I would even say that Jake is being sincere, to some extent.

But Jake Paul can use all the resources and clout he has to “reach out” to whoever he wants. Good luck! But best case scenario – he is years away from making any sort of structural change. And that is assuming he can even find the right people, and those people happen to side with him and not the UFC and WME! Jake even compared himself to a fly! Just an annoyance.

There are already two class-action lawsuits fully underway! If they need Jake Pauls help, they can call him. But, for now at least, it’s all just noise.
Literal noise. Jake made a diss track..

But you know what Jake Paul is really good at? Being a prize fighter.
And you know what Dana White does? Puts on the biggest fights in the word.

Dana White and Jake Paul teaming up would be GOOD business. It’s almost so obvious it feels redundant to even say. There is a lot of noise and ego between these two, but one thing they do have in common – they both understand what is best for business.

One can’t help but wonder if it’s possible..

Jake Paul belongs to the MMA community. Whether we like it or not, as Uncle Chael said, “Jake Paul is absolutely a part of this community. Jake Paul is one of us”. It is mostly MMA media covering his fights. Jake is “feuding” with UFC/MMA personalities.

Jake has chosen the UFC/MMA community to engage with, and it kind of makes sense. Maybe it’s because we’re easy to troll. But I think it’s because we’re more fun. And he was a wrestler growing up! Jake and Logan both grew up as a UFC fans with their dad.

Jake Paul clearly wants to be a part of the UFC. He is literally spending his own money to become an “owner”!!

There are some potential obstacles,

Nakisa “the warlock” Bidarian. Dana’s relationship with Jakes Paul’s main advisor is super interesting. Dana says, “they never got a long”. However, Nakisa was the CFO at the UFC for more than 5 years. He oversaw the UFC sale, and after he left the UFC, he was the CEO of Fertitta Capital for 3 years.
So, they do have a history of working together. Dana and Nakisa both share the Ferrita’s as business partners. There must be at least some room for compatibility there.

Also – do not forget about Hunter Campbell. The new Lorenzo Ferrtita. The level-headed businessman. He would most likely be doing the actual negotiations. So there might not be a need for Dana and Nakisa to interact. Probably just like before..

Jake Paul’s grandstanding in regards to UFC fighter pay.

I really do think there is sincerity in Jake Paul’s efforts to get fighters more money. And there is no harm in “shaking that tree”. It can’t hurt. But even if you are Jake Paul – you can not deny that at least some of what he is doing is simply good self promotion. Its cheap and easy attention to poke at Dana White and advocate for fighters to get paid more. The reality is somewhere in the middle.
And whatever “middle” may mean to you – just don’t mark out too hard in either direction.

Regardless of his intentions, Jake Paul may think the gimmick has to be Jake Paul vs Dana White. That this only works if they are on opposing sides. He very well could have worked himself into a shoot! But I doubt it. And even if he did, the people around him didn’t. If the money is right, everyone will forgive and forget real quick.
“Keep your enemies close”, “I can effect more change from the inside”. Nobody would care.
Because Dana White and Jake Paul getting together would be a huge deal.

But what about Dana! He hates that YouTube kid, right!?

Well first of all, nothing really seems to bother Dana White anymore. Dana might be the only person in world who isn’t bothered by the GD pandemic.

But Jake has definitely got under Dana’s skin, and Dana seems to be having fun poking back at Jake. So at the least – Jake Paul has got Dana White’s attention. Which is not easy to do these days. You are doing something right if you can get Dana to respond to you on his Instagram..

Did anyone happen to catch Aaron Bronsteter’s interview with Dana where he plays the odds game? Check out how Dana responds to the idea of Jake fighting in the UFC.

Watch rest the interview here

The beauty of that game is Aaron found a way to pull direct answers out of Dana! It’s mostly trivial fun stuff. But sometimes Dana will offer up some legitimate insight on potential plans the UFC has. And the best insight we got this round, was from the only question Dana did not answer! When Aaron asked, ‘will Jake Paul fight in the UFC in 2022’, Dana didn’t say he wasn’t interested, his first reaction was to inquire about Jakes availability..

But come on!! The UFC is where the best fighters in the world compete! Dana would never consider celebrity status when determining who deserves various opportunities in the UFC…

Unless you’re 2-1 in MMA, 1-1 in the UFC, and your name is Brock Lesnar. And the UFC needs someone to fight a 50-year-old light heavyweight for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Or you’re some former professional wrestler who “wants a chance”. Or a viral street fighter..

I could go on and on. We all know – a fighters celebrity status is constantly influencing the UFCs decisions on what kind of opportunities fighters will get. They look at social media stats to determine placement on the card!

And let’s not lose sight of the fact that 99.99% of the time, it is the best fighting the best in the UFC. It really is what makes the UFC special.

But every once and awhile – Dana and the UFC will break the rules. And that is part of what makes prize fighting fun! There isn’t some highly structured meritocracy that determines who gets an opportunity.

Sometimes it’s just fun to have fun.

And Dana White putting on fights with Jake Paul, in some sort of form, would be a ton of fun.

Dana White always says – he puts on the fights people want to see. And a lot of people would want to watch a Jake Paul fight in the UFC. You may not want to admit it – but we’d all watch.

Dana is a lot more dialed in and “with it” than people give him credit for. Dana has become a content machine of his own. He’s mentioned that WME wants to just pump out content with him. Food shows. Surfing. A half dozen fight shows.

Dana has been running around with the ‘Nelk Boys’ lately. (I had no idea who they were until Dana started chumming around with them, but apparently, they have a large following). Why is that? Do you really think Dana is trying to befriend some 20-year-olds!? Or does Dana recognize that his content is perfect for that generation. Its “edgy”. It easily goes viral. There is always lots of drama going down. Tons of personalities. This is Jake Paul’s fan base and world!! UFC/Dana White would further establish their presence in a whole new “market” getting into business with Jake Paul. And if Dana White doesn’t recognize this (he does) – someone at WME does.

There are several ways this partnership could go,

Maybe this is how they finally launch Zuffa Boxing. Dana White looks for up and coming boxers to challenge Jake Paul.

This would also solve two inevitable problems Jake Paul is bound to face as a boxer.
1. He runs out of opponents, and 2. He loses.
Partnering with Dana White and the ESPN/UFC machine that is behind him would offer Jake a great solution. Promoting fighters who have recently lost is nothing new to Dana. And the “opponent” would always be there! It is the promoter!! It is one of the great all-time gimmicks.

Maybe they have a reality show on Fight Pass where Dana and Jake live together for 90 days.

Or maybe the former Ohio State wrestler, will just straight up fight in the UFC. For better or for worse – Jake Paul fighting in the UFC would be a fucking huge event.

At this moment – of course it seems impossible. But they don’t have to get along (it actually might be better they don’t), it just makes too much business cents (sorry) to keep these two crazy kids apart.

I don’t know when. But I would bet some heavy units that Jake fights in the UFC one day – but you gotta give me some odds..

TL;DR – We are all too focused on Dana White and Jake Paul “feuding”. And not nearly focused enough on the massive business opportunity that is available.

From Jake Paul’s perspective, he clearly wants to be a part of the MMA community and the UFC. He is literally spending his own money to become an “owner” of the UFC.

And from Dana’s perspective, Jake Paul wouldn’t even be the least experienced celebrity to be given a chance in the UFC.
Dana is befriending 20 years olds, at least in part, to push the Dana White/UFC brand to a new younger market, the Gen Zs.
And – go watch that clip above. You tell me Dana is not interested in Jake Paul..