Bets

UFC 294 – Bets

October 20, 2023 — Leave a comment

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Big PPV this week, and boy is it chalky…

Big emphasis on the PRP this week. Volk being near a 2-1 fave gives us a decent hedge out possibility in the main. Over the coming weeks I will be changing how I allocate my units and emphasizing more straight bets opposed to the PRP, even though the PRP has been my most profitable play these last few months. But this is an event to try and utilize the PRP.

Top Line

Aliskerov is much bigger and dangerous everywhere, Alves has a big ask here with this young middleweight.

Khamzat is the dude, man. And Usman has no knees. Khamzat’s pace and strength will be too much for over-the-hill Kamaru Usman. I could see Usman being tough and we see the scorecards, but I could also see Khamzat breaking Usman early like he often does.

Islam won their last fight 4-1 on one judges scorecard. Much of Volks perceived success comes from prior expectations. There is this attitude out there that Volk had a moral victory in their first fight, and he probably did, but it doesn’t matter. Because Islam won the fight. Because he is better. And he will be much better prepared fighter for this fight.

The Rest

Adding in the chalk in order of conviction! Good luck!

The Dogs

Feel good about having the opportunity to back Mohammad Yahya at plus money against Trevor Peek. While he is no world beater, he has the technical striking to be at an advantage against the very limited Peek. Peek is just a tough dude, but he will be vulnerable to counters which the hometown Yahya has an ability to land.

UFC Vegas 80 – Bets

October 6, 2023 — Leave a comment

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Small slate of bets, total unit count is right under 11.

Dawson and Dobber are the top line of the PRP this week. It is a conservative top line, and conservative PRP overall this week.

RPR top line

Dobber is better than Glenn at what Glenn does best, and even though Dobber can be up and down, he is still a fighter trending upwards, and overall Dobber is the much higher level fighter. Glenn looked bad his last time out against a borderline UFC fighter. Glenn’s last win was more than 2 years ago, backing him here seems next to impossible, so adding Dobber to the top line is easy.

Dawson may hit a ceiling at some point, but Green will be in tough here against Dawsons relentless grappling in the small cage. Green is well rounded and has some solid wrestling, but Dawson has outwrestled much better grapplers than Green. Green is getting old, and Dawson has looked better each time he makes the walk. Another easy decision to add to the top line of a PRP.

PRP 2nd line

Did something unusual here adding 3 fights to the 2nd line. There just isn’t anyone I feel overly confident in to add the units into the PRP.

Pyfer is the obvious juice to add here, but there is just too much unknown about him to be overly confident and add the usual unit allocation in the 2nd line. Razak is a gamer, and he is dangerous. He can take you out early, but he has shown an ability to wrestle and grind late, even though he is pretty classic example of a front runner. I favour Pyfer here, but not at the implied win probability he is being assigned. Pyfer looks like someone who may be for real, but we just don’t know yet, this is a bigger test than the line suggest.

Karolina is one of the more interesting cases as of late, she looked like she had fallen off and was ready to be done, but now she is on a tear! She is fighting lower level competition, but she is capable everywhere the fight goes. Diana looked solid in her last fight, but she beat a fighter who has one close win in the UFC. I expect Karolina to be better everywhere the fight goes. Good value on this line. Playing ML as well.

Rare case of putting plus money this high in the PRP. But this line seems way off to me, Lins has looked great since coming back and moving down. He will be the more technical, disciplined fighter. That should show in their striking, and Ion may take him down, but it is unlikely he can keep him down.

Rest of PRP

Think Buckley will be too fast and strong for Morono to play his game. The question will be if Morono can out pace him as the fight goes. But even if Buckley doesn’t score the big KO, I think he’ll have enough to take 2 rounds.

Taking a small flier on Maness in the last line and as a straight ML bet. Hard to trust him too much, he has been on a bit of a skid. But he has fought and competed with some of the best, he is solid and well rounded. Mendonca is being priced like a blue chip prospect, and I just don’t see it. He has fought a very low level of competition, and when he has fought higher level pros he has stuggled.

UFC Vegas 79 – Bets

September 22, 2023 — Leave a comment

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Large slate of bets, but the total unit count is only at 15.7, on the higher end of the last few cards but not by much.

I need 3 fighters to win, and I am guaranteed a profit on the event. If Malkoun, Argueta, and Usman cash the top 2 lines of my PRP, everything else can lose and I will win 1u.

Malkoun – has many advantages in this fight. His relentless pace and grinding will wear Brundage down, who has fallen victim to a limited gas tank in the past. The gap here could be big, and if Malkoun finishes him early we shouldn’t be too surprised. I cap a better than 12% chance that finish comes late after a beating.

Argueta – Argueta might be a dark horse prospect in this division. He is a great athlete and has some strong wrestling, he is well built to give good guys problems. Miles Johns is better than he gets credit for, he is solid and well rounded, but we should see Argueta at a different level physically and with a wide advantage in wrestling. Should be enough to get at least 2 rounds in the small cage.

Usman – Classic clash of momentums, one fighter on a win streak on his way up, and an old vet on his way down and out. But styles make fights, and Collier is scrappy. He has been around for awhile, but at his new found weight class, he has used his physicality to win fights. Collier looks better on the scale than he has recently, but Usman is built like a true heavyweight. I expect Mohammed Usman to be the better athlete, stronger and the fighter with more tools to end the fight.

Rest of the PRP

Adding in some faves I am less confident in, or that have some red flags.
Fialho more dangerous and polished, same for Battle tbh. Battle is green but so is Fletcher.
Rodriguez won last time, but she is on a real skid. Hard to trust her too much.
Vidal has good instincts to finish and she has some decent pro level experience. Not enough known about her, or her opponent, to have too much confidence here.
Adding in my dogs to make it juicy.

The Dogs

Ramos has shown a far great willingness to mix it up, he has 13 takedowns in his last 5 fights! And in Charles’ last 2 losses, he gave up 7 takedowns. Also – I think I give Ramos the striking advantage! Ramos has fought some of the best in the division, and Charles has only beat marginal UFC competition. Jourdain’s pace could give him Ramos problems, but all considered, I like Ramos at these prices. Regardless, I think we see a close fight, so betting O 1.5 in a small parlay, and juicing my pick with Ramos by DEC and an even juicer flier on a split…..

Ige has some real clean boxing, and has been in there with some of the best. The obvious question will be if he can stop Bryce from taking him down. I want to believe Ige has the grappling to at least get up, but we just can not say for sure. Ige has fallen victim to a heavy grappling approach in the past. And Bryce will be relentless in that small cage. Our last memory of Bryce is him tapping in the 2nd to Topuria, so it can be easy to forget just how good his grappling can be. He is effective against high level competition. With all that said, Bryce is still very much an unknown at this level of competition, I like placing a small flier on Ige here.

I initially leaned Fiziev, then I thought avoid would be for the best, but now I have crossed all the way over to Gamrot! This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup, and maybe after all that indecisiveness I should just stay away. But the reason I changed my mind, was that I figured it was more likely Gamrot can grind out 3 rounds than it is that Fiziev can hurt him on the feet enough to do the same. Gamrot has been hit before, and the threat is obvious, but with the line up where it is, I like Gamrots game. Extra juice on the DEC.