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No write up this week!

Good luck, degenerates

FULL UFC Vegas 87
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No write up this week!

Good luck, degenerates

FULL UFC Vegas 86
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Daniel Marcos vs Aoriqileng
This feels like a step down in competition for Marcos. He should be too fast and skilled on the feet, and Aoriqileng will have a tough time winning this fight over 15 minutes with his grappling.

Hyder Amil vs Fernie Garcia
Can’t bet either guy. Avoid.

Zac Pauga vs Bogdan Guskov
Can’t bet either guy. Avoid

Jeremiah Wells vs Max Griffin
Like Wells explosiveness and athleticism in combination with his willingness to mix in takedowns with his KO power. However, Griffin is a savvy vet, if this fight gets extended it is probably because Griffin is successfully playing his game. And it is likely that Griffin will be the more effective fighter later into the fight. Picking Wells, but low conviction.

Devin Clark vs Marcin Prachnio
Clark should be able to grind his way to a win. Possibly finish it later, but he is hard to trust.

Loma Lookboonmee vs Bruna Brasil
I like Loma, she has become a little killer. Quick on the feet and a shark on the ground, but the problem is, there is also something to like about Bruna Brasil. I don’t like Brasil enough to use her to fade Loma, but we need to respect the otherside here. Brasil is a good counter striker and solid athlete, she could pose challenges for Loma in many places this fight will take place. But overall, going with Loma’s well rounded game and her experience. But only putting her in the 4th line of the parlay.

Timothy Cuamba vs Bolaji Oki
Don’t know much about either of these contender series vets, but from what we do know, Oki is the side. He looks far more dangerous, he has a better resume, and he is an actual 155er.

Trevin Giles vs Carlos Prates
We are learning that you need to be careful with some of these contender series guys, there are a lot of frauds out there. There would be those out there making an argument here for Giles to fraud check the UFC debutant sitting at -250. However, Prates is not your typical contender series debutant. He is 30 years old, has 23 pro MMA fights and an extensive kickboxing background. He will have a sizeable edge on the feet here against Giles. Giles will want to make this dirty and grind Prates down, but Giles usually finds his success striking at distance, which will be tough to do here. Feel good about backing Prates.

Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan
Alright, I have unusually high convection on this one. Now it is nothing too crazy, but there is a little extra juice on this one. Sizeable ML and prop allocation. This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup, and one where the gap between their opposing skills is very different. Armen is much better at Vieiras strength than Vieira is at his. Armen has shown great get up ability, and has been able to survive in tough spots against good grapplers. Whereas Vieira is very vulnerable on the feet. In his last fight he was almost taken out by the world class striker Cody Brundage. Now it can be unfair to discredit him too much just for that one round. But regardless, if Armen is able to peel Rodolfo off him a few times early, Vieira will look like a fish out of water in comparison to Armen on the feet. And as the fight goes, the harder it will be for Vieira to get the fight to the ground, much like we seen in the Curtis fight – where attempted 20 takedowns, all unsuccessfully! Worst case, Armen is better as the fight goes and wins 2 rounds, but I see Armen hurting him early and often after the takedown threats quickly subsides.

Michael Johnson vs Darius Flowers
Michael should be better, but he is hard to trust. Darrius could clip him. Nothing here. Avoid.

Brad Tavares vs Gregory Rodrigues
High conviction in Robocop here. Two different trajectories in their careers, and Rodrigues should be better in every aspect of this fight. Tavares is a solid striker, and could out point Rodrigues. Especially if he stuffs a few takedowns, but Tavares has looked slower and more vulnerable his last few times out. And Rodrigues can throw down. He is a big athletic dude who has some solid technique and power. But the real difference here could be the grappling. Tavares has some solid takedown defence stats, but if Rodrigues decides to chase the takedown, he will get it there. Robocop has done some of his best work on the ground, and he seems to finally be realizing it. It has been frustrating for Robocop backers to see him always stand and trade, but in his last fight he shot for the takedown in less than a minute! And then the fight was over shortly after. I would love to see him do the same in this fight and try and take this down ASAP.

Ihor Potieria vs Robert Bryczek
Hard to trust either guy here. Ihor is a live dog, but he is not worth the bet at these prices. Avoid.

Dan Ige vs Andre Fili
Like Ige’s boxing edge and his strong wrestling to utilize that advantage throughout the fight. Fili has a tough record, but regardless he has some skills, need to respect that. But Ige is a solid price here. Happy to back him.

Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer
Joe has some freaky power, and he is a strong grappler. This is a good matchup for his first real test in the UFC. If Joe gets fraud checked it is most likely because Jack is able to freeze Joe and score from the outside, but if Joe has success he catches him with a big punch or overwhelms him on the ground. Don’t over think this one, see Joe getting another finish.

Good luck, degenerates

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Thomas Petersen vs Jamal Pogues
I don’t know how anyone could have a confident read in this fight. Petersen is an interesting prospect with his wrestling background, but at that price are you sure he can go 3 rounds with the 265 pound Jamal Pogues? Pogues is far from a world beater, but he has gone 3 rounds a few times at this level. I just can’t find any reason to put money on this fight. Avoid.

MarQuel Mederos vs Landon Quinones
I like Mederos here at this price. He looks like a good athlete, dangerous. And I do not believe Quinones is UFC level, I would not be surprised if this fight is a wash. However, we do not have a lot of evidence Mederos is any good. Need to be careful backing inexperienced fighters, so just going with the ML and 2nd line in the PRP. He will be a key addition to a profitable night, but it won’t make or break me.

Luana Carolina vs Julija Stoliarenko
Another one where I can’t find any good reason to bet. No need. Avoid.

Jeongyeong Lee vs Blake Bilder.
I like Lee at these prices. We don’t know tons about him, so just like the previous fight we need to be careful. Like Lee’s athleticism and his well rounded game.

Themba Gorimbo vs Pete Rodriguez
Both of these guys are wild cards. Gorimbo can be a bit sloppy, but he is strong, and is willing to take the fight anywhere he can to win. Rodriguez carries a lot of power, and Gorimbo will get hit. I see why people are playing the dog here. But both these guys are hard to trust. Avoid. And happy to.

Azat Maksum vs Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson has had a tough go in the UFC. He’s been matched up with some low key killers and his record is not quite an accurate indication of his ability. However, I unfortunately think this will be another example of a tough matchup for him. Johnson has been taken down 31 times in his 6 UFC fight. He has faced some of the toughest chain wrestlers in the division, but still. He can be taken down, frequently. And Azat will be another guy looking for that takedown, and he is no slouch on the feet. Tyson Nam was a low key tough first UFC fight for Azat. Nam has some clean boxing and solid takedown defence, and Azat still won that. He comes in with a little more experience, good momentum and a clear path to victory. He will be one of my guys in the top line. Big bet!

Molly Mccann vs Diana Belbita
I am a big believer in betting on what has happened in the past. The fight is a rematch? I will often bet on whoever won the last one. There is good reason to do that again here. Diana has mentioned the “R” word recently, and she got 10-7’d the last time she fought the Meatball (no seriously, go look. may have been because of a fence grab, but still). But I am having a hard time believing too much in Molly, especially at these prices. I am throwing her late in the RPP, and adding her to a small hedge parlay, but if she is a broken fighter it won’t hurt me too bad. She can just help add some asymmetrical returns on my higher conviction plays if she is able to beat someone she beat before, not unreasonable.

Gilbert Urbina vs Charles Radtke
Urbina should be the better fighter here. He is much bigger. He has better experience. He has more tools. He is more dangerous. But there is a grind factor here that worries me. Urbina has more tools, but his UFC win list is small. And if he can’t put Radtke away I worry he fades, like he has before. So similar to the Molly fight, if the bigger, more dangerous and experienced fighter can take out an inexperienced UFC fighter, he can add some asymmetry to my night. Also have a small bet on ITD.

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Makhmud Muradov
This is an interesting one. Khizriev has the record and the skills of a fighter who will rack up wins in the UFC, and Muradov looks like a middle of the road UFC middleweight. But there is a big gap on the feet here, and a big gap in their recent activity. Muradov is a big middleweight and could keep Khizriev off him and win rounds on the feet. With all that said, I do think it is more likely Khizriev is able to win at least two rounds in that small cage with his relentless wrestling. Another fight where it is not a main play, but can help me have a good night.

Viviane Araujo vs Natalia Silva
This is a pretty high confidence pick and high conviction play. I have been a big Natalia Silva fan since she entered the UFC. She looks like the real deal. Explosive athlete and a well rounded game. It is hard to imagine Viviane will have many ways to win this fight. Silva will be too quick on the feet, and there is little to no chance Viviane will have the wrestling to take Silva down. Good top line piece, feel she helps add +EV to the play. May regret not betting ML out right though.

Randy Brown vs Muslim Salikhov
I like Randy Brown, but I don’t love him at these prices. Salikov is on a slide and I have no idea how old he actually is, but I do think he presents an tough style matchup for Randy Brown. Salikov will be kicking his legs, and will be strong in the clinch. But Brown is at a much better place in his career, and he could be too fast and strong for Salikhov. I could see Randy’s hands being too quick, and if he can wrap his hands around Salikhov, he could land some emphatic takedowns. I’ll have .35u on Randy Brown as the last additions to some parlays, but thats is it.

Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober
Overall, I do think Renato is the better fighter. He has more tools, is more well rounded and has fought at a higher level. But I worry that the wrestling negates Renato’s advantage on the ground and it becomes a kickboxing match where Dober’s strengths will show. But still, I do think Renato can be dangerous enough on the feet and he can find a way to get it to the ground at some point in the fight. Adding him late as well to some parlays.

Roman Dolidze vs Nassourdine Imavov
Alright, the main event. And I picking the dog in this one! I like Roman at these prices. I see Roman being too physical and utilizes his grappling to win some rounds and put Imavov in bad spots. Imavov is well rounded and he’s found different ways to win fights in the UFC against some solid fighters. But I think he will be on the defensive against the strong grappler in this one. I’ll be taking Roman with the ML and also adding some additional juice with the ITD and then the sub.

Good luck, degenerates!

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Joshua Van vs Felipe Bunes
Van got too juiced here, had to avoid. Van has not shown us enough yet to bet him at this line, this fight could end up being a closely contested fight on the feet and at best, I think we’d sweat the nearly -300 line on Van.

Tom Nolan vs Nikolas Motta
I am a Nolan truther. I think this kid could be good. Motta gets hit and KO’d, he has 4 losses via KO and 3 of those in the first round. Nolan looks to have some serious power and the ability to effectively utilize his range. This feels like a squash match for one of the prospects to watch in 2024.

Jean Silva vs Westin Wilson
This line has become silly. I get it, Westin Wilson does not appear to be UFC calibur and does not have UFC experience other than a short notice call up and subsequent smashing. Silva does appear to be UFC calibur, but this is a big line for a guy making his debut. I put him in the top line of the PRP for this event, but he was venturing close to avoid territory at those prices.

Farid Basharat vs Taylor Lapilus
This has been an interesting one to watch the other cappers make their bets. I am of the opinion that Farid is great bet at sub -300. Farid has fought, and finished, far better fighters than Lapilus. Farid has the grappling to take Taylor out of his game, and the striking to still be effective on the feet. I do not always put a guy in my PRP top line and make a straight ML bet, but I am confident in a worst case scenario Farid will take two rounds with his grappling.

Marcus McGhee vs Gaston Bolanos
Like McGhee here, and I put him in the PRP. I do believe he is more well rounded and athletic, but Bolanos has skills on the feet where this fight is most likely to take place. The hope will be that McGhee will mix it up with takedowns and will be better as the fight goes.

Matthew Semelsberger vs Preston Parsons
Now, I typically try and avoid fighters on a losing streak. But I am backing Semelsberger here. Semelsberger was looking good in his last fight and he was on his way to winning until he got dropped late and the fight was (arguably) stopped prematurely. Semelsberger should have the striking edge to hit the hittable Parsons, and he should have the grappling and strength/size to keep Parsons off him. At basically even money I’ll take the well rounded vet.

Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
This fight and this line are both gross. Arlovski is like 100 years old, he will have a tough time grabbing two rounds off the young contender. Acosta via TKO seems like the easy guess here, but I just threw the chalk in my PRP. I do not see Acosta heading for the title anytime soon, but he is a decent HW prospect, this should be a fight he is taking.

Phil Hawes vs Brunno Ferriera
This fight is tempting and fun. It is a true gamble! And you can make a good case for both sides. You either back Phil, who should be the far better fighter. Or you back the stone hands against the glass jaw. But these are not the type of bets we make. Happy to avoid.

Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista
Love this fight. Fantastic matchmaking and I expect to see a fun fight. But more importantly – I love this line. Ricky is the higher profile fighter, just coming off of his first UFC main event. He has good pressure and will always be a takedown threat. However, I am happy to take Mario at dog prices here. This dude has been on a tear and is looking better every fight. Simon has shown some vulnerabilities on the feet, something Mario has the ability to exploit. The takedown in the small cage will be how Simon wins this fight, but Mario is no slouch in the grappling department, I expect him to be able to stay off his back.

Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benitez
I can’t bet either of these guys. I know they have different fight styles, but for some reason they seem similar to me. Gabriel is almost like the Mexican Jim Miller. The dude has been in the UFC for more than 10 years! He has also had his ups and downs, had some finishes and some tough losses. I’d pick Jim, but just can’t find any edge in this line. Avoid.

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker
I am a believer in the resurgence of Johnny Walker, he has a ton of raw skill and it seems John Kavanagh has done wonders for his game planning and technical skills. But at the same time – I was someone who had Ankalaev earmarked for the title. So at their fight at 294, when Ankalaev was around -350, I had Ankalaev near the bottom of my PRP. So Ankalaev was the pick but did not have much conviction. Now we’ve seen a them in the cage together, granted it was only a short time, and Ankalaev is a bigger fave! To me, this was the wrong takeaway from that short fight. I think Johnny is live here, so taking a small flier on him and the +700 TKO prop.

Good luck, degenerates!!

FULL UFC Vegas 84
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Frustrating loss. You aren’t going to get every read right, but you can protect yourself by following the rough guidelines you’ve set for yourself. I broke two pretty basic rules this event. The first rule broken was actually mentioned in my initial write up! “Now, I typically try and avoid fighters on a losing streak. But I am backing Semelsberger here.” It is funny how often you regret writing things like that. If you’re trying to justify why its ok to break a rule, you should check yourself, and your ego. The prefight confidence you have in your reads can be a dangerous thing to allow to go unchecked. Which leads to the second mistake, putting a 23 year old UFC debutant in the PRP top line. This was the first unprofitable PRP in 8 UFC events and I deserved to bust it. To be profitable long term, there needs to be higher standards for the top line, unproven fighters in the top of the PRP will chip away at the EV of the PRPs. Now, realtically, my prefight confidence in Nolan would have meant he was going to be high the PRP. But I still could have profited if my top line stayed intact.