Bets

UFC Vegas 51 – Bets

April 16, 2022 — Leave a comment

Kevin Croom ML +150 (40.00%) – 1u

Like Crooms experience, style, and size advantage here. Croom has a checkered record, but he is worth a healthy flier here.

Istela Nunes TKO +500 (16.67%) – .25u

Istela Nunes is a much higher level striker, she was a former world Muay Thai champ and she has fought the better competition. Willing to take a flier at +500 that she can make Hughes quit on the feet.

Jordan Leavitt ML +125 (44.44%) – 1u
Jordan Leavitt SUB +295 (25.32%) – .5u

I like Jordan at these prices. He has not made his way too far up the UFC ladder, but he does has some UFC wins. And he is the type to spam takedowns and sub attempts. And while Ogden also looks to be a grappler, he has been fighting regional competition up until recently, is taking this fight on short notice, and 3 of his 4 losses come via sub.

Ogden’s size worries me, but I am assuming Leavitt is the one who is UFC calibur, because he has proved he is and he is the one that is plus money here. Like the bet.

Martin Buday ITD -185 (64.91%) – 1.5u

I will have more money on Buday in some parlays. But I don’t see Barnett being able to survive 15 minutes. Buday has a chin, and he is a terrible style matchup for Barnett. He will lean on Barnett and wear him down, if these big boys haven’t get clipped and taken out early, I think Barnett is too exhausted to see the scorecards.

Ange Loosa ML +163 (38.02%) – 1.5u
Ange Loosa DEC +350 (22.22%) – .25u

Loosa is coming off a 3 round win against UFC vet John Howard 2 weeks ago, and before that he had a great fight with the killer Jack Della Maddalena on DWCS. Jack has some really powerful and clean boxing, and Loosa is the only guy who made the scorecards durings Jack’s 11 fight win streak.

Loosa likes to spam the takedown, and I think Lazzez will have a tough time staying on his feet. I can see him stealing two round with his wrestling while the striking is more or less even.

Loosa is taking this fight on short notice, but I think he will prove to be on a different level. Like him at these prices.

Baeza vs Fialho UNDER 2.5 -135 (57.45%) – 2u
Miguel Baeza ITD +110 (47.62%) – .5u

Baeza has hit a skid after starting his career undefeated and his UFC career with 3 finishes. While I don’t love betting on fighters on losing streaks, Baeza has the skills to take out his opponent in this one. Hedging an under 2.5 rounds incase he gets clipped, as the boxing of Fialho and Baeza’s chin could be the biggest risk.

But Baeza should be the more versatile striker, and I think the leg kicks specifically will be the difference. Baeza is only 29, and was competing with some of the best in the UFC. When we look back in a year or two I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baeza back on track.

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev ML -125 (55.56%) – 2u

Going with the grappler here. Gadzhi also has some clean striking, and a better strength of schedule.

Vicente Luque ITD -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

I really like Luque here, forget that he already KOd Belal in the first round, I think he also also improved far more than Belal since then. And, bet on what has happened, not what you hope will happen.

Also, stylistically, Luque has the advantage. Luque is much more dangerous on the feet, and he has some of the best submissions in the division. So it will be tough for Belal to just spam the takedown for 25 minutes.

Like Luque a lot in this fight. He could make a statement with this one. Don’t sleep on Luque at 170.

Sabatini – Buday PARLAY -148 (59.68%) – 2.5u

First leg of the parlay chain! Buday’s only chance of losing is getting clipped, but he has a chin, and Sabatini is a bigger better version of his opponent. Rightful big favourite.

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes PARLAY +144 (40.98%) – 2.5u

Adding in Nunes to the front of the parlay chain.

Baeza – Omargadzhiev – Luque PARLAY +336 (22.94%) – 2.5u

Separate parlay of some of my favourites.

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes – Luque – Omargadzhiev – Baeza PARLAY +961 (9.43%) – 1u

Linking the two parlays.

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes – Luque – Omargadzhiev – Baeza – Loosa PARLAY +2733 (3.53%) – .5u

Adding in Loosa to the two sets of parlays!

Sabatini – Buday – Nunes – Luque – Omargadzhiev – Baeza – Loosa – Leavitt – Croom PARLAY +15483 (.64%) – .25u

The final full chain!

Buday ITD – Luque ITD PARLAY +194 (34.01%) – 1.5u

Like these two to win ITD. Parlaying it up.

Buday ITD – Luque ITD – Baeza ITD PARLAY +518 (16.18%) – .5u

Adding Baeza ITD

Nunes TKO – Leavitt SUB – Buday ITD – Loosa DEC – Baeza ITD – Luque ITD PARLAY +63155 (0.16%) – .1u

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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UFC 273 – Bets

April 8, 2022 — Leave a comment

Mark Madsen ML -105 (51.22%) – 1u

Pichel has shown below average takedown defence in the UFC sitting at 25%, so Madsen should be able to steal two rounds with his wrestling. Pichel could come alive late, but his last finish came in 2017.

Mike Malott ML -200 (66.67%) – 1u
Mike Malott RD 1, 2 +135 (42.55%) – .5u

I think Malott has the ability to make some noise in the 170 pound division.

Darian Weeks ML +300 (25.00%) – 1u
Darian Weeks ITD +400 (20.00%) – .5u

Fade warning!! I am fading Ian Garry.

Ian Garry’s last fight before he got into the UFC was against a fighter with a 17-6 record, who spent most of his career at 155. He displayed his power in his UFC debut against a fighter who went 0-3 in his UFC run. And in that fight, Garry was getting tagged. Weeks has pro boxing experience and 19 amatuer fights! He looked good against Barberena, and showed an ability to take the fight to the ground. I like this line

Mackenzie Dern ML -120 (54.55%) – 1.5u

Dern will have a much easier time grabbing Torres than she did Rodriguez. She should be able to take two rounds with her grappling. And hopefully can even find the sub.

Khamzat Chimaev RD 1, 2 -175 (63.64%) – 2u

Right as I was placing this bet my book changed the line from -150 to -175. Frig sakes.

Still like the bet. 10 minutes will be a long time in there for Gilbert. He might be able to grapple his way out of danger in the 1st, so making a safe bet and betting 1 and 2.

Petr Yan ITD +125 (44.44%) – .5u

I see a lot of people throwing some money on Aljo. And I get it, he looks great. He sounds confident. But I’d recommend those people watch that fight from last year again.

Yan defended 16 of 17 takedown attempts. And the one takedown Aljo did get, was the very first one he tried. And Yan got right back up.

And Yan is the boxer, and has displayed the better striking in the octagon, by far. I am not completely sure he finishes, but I like the line. Little sprinkle.

Alexander Volkanovski RD 1,2,3 +300 (25.00%) – 1.5u

Alex is on a whole different level. I expect Alex to be able to get inside and put The Korean Zombie away. I like being given a 25% chance that he can do that over the span of 15 minutes.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski PARLAY -168 (62.69%) – 5u

First leg of the parlay chain!

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern PARLAY +346 (22.42%) – 2.5u

Adding Malott and Dern.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern – Madsen PARLAY +772 (11.47%) – .5u

Adding Madsen to the chain, small addition, small units.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern – Madsen – Weeks PARLAY +3387 (2.87%) – 1.5u

I like this parlay. Placing a larger than average bet at these prices.

Khamzat – Yan – Volkanovski – Malott – Dern – Madsen – Weeks – Arce – Hernandez PARLAY +8022 (1.23%) – .25u

The final addition to the full chain!

Malott – Dern PARLAY +160 (38.46%) – 2u

Adding in a side chain to hedge some of the bigger favourites!

Malott – Dern – Madsen PARLAY +446 (18.32%) – .75u

Adding Madsen to the side chain.

Malott RD 1,2 – Chimaev RD 1,2 – Volkanovski RD 1,2,3 PARLAY +1285 (7.22%) – .25u

Taking a healthy flier on these props parlayed up.

Weeks ITD – Malott RD 1, 2 – Madsen vs Pichel DRAW – Chimaev RD 1,2 – Yan ITD – Volkanovski RD 1,2,3 PARLAY +1043709 (0.01%) – .1u

The long shot this week! And it is by far my longest shot!!
Good luck!!

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UFC Columbus – Bets

March 26, 2022 — Leave a comment

Bruno Souza ML -125 (55.59%) – 1u

Better more experienced fighter. Better striker. And more willing to mix it up with takedowns.

David Dvořák ML -125 (55.59%) – 1u

Fight is close. But David Dvorak should be the more physical fighter, and guessing that will be the difference. Higher likelihood to hurt his opponent.

Aliaskhab Khizriev RD 1 -130 (56.52%) – .5u

Don’t over think this one. Khizriev is a destroyer. Multiple 1st round finishes, against much tougher opponents.

Viacheslav Borshchev ITD +125 (44.44%) – .5u

Going with the momentum of Slava Claus. He is also the more experienced fighter where this fight is most likely to take place, on the feet.

Danaa Batgerel ITD +150 (40.00%) – .5u

I think Gutierrez might be a little overrated, and Danaa is super dangerous. I think he’ll find Gutierrez’s chin.

Sara McMann DEC +350 (22.22%) – .25u

I could see her wrestling stealing two rounds. Was gonna bet on a split at +1200 but chickened out.

Curtis Blaydes ITD -170 (62.96%) – .5u

Curtis will be the one to prove his place among the best at 265. I think he will have a lot of time with top position, and 25 minutes will be a long long time for Daukaus to try and survive..

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes PARLAY -179 (64.16%) – 4u

First leg of the parlay chain!

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny PARLAY +112 (47.17%) – 3u

Adding in Magny to the chain..

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny – Askarov – Borschev PARLAY +321 (23.75%) – 3u

Throwing in Slava and Askarov

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny – Askarov – Borschev – Souza – Batgerel PARLAY +1202 (7.68%) – 2u

Adding two of my favourite value picks

Fiorot – Khizriev – Blaydes – Magny – Askarov – Borschev – Souza – Batgerel – Dvorak PARLAY +2243 (4.27%) – 1u

The final addition to the full chain!

Khizriev –  Borshchev – Askarov – Blaydes PARLAY +160 (38.46%) – 3u

Adding in a side chain to hedge some plays!

Khizriev RD 1 – Magny RD 3 or DEC – Blaydes ITD PARLAY +351 (22.17%) – 1.5u

Taking a healthy flier on these props.

Fiorot DEC – Khizriev RD 1 – Batgerel ITD – Borshchev ITD – Magny RD 3 or DEC – Blaydes ITD PARLAY +4469 (2.19%) – .1u

The long shit this week! A measly 44-1. Should be a gimme, amirite..

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UFC London – Bets

March 19, 2022 — Leave a comment

Timur Valiev ML -115 (53.49%) – 1u

These two have a fairly similar fight style, but I expect Timur to be the faster, stronger, and more dangerous.

Paul Craig ML +160 (38.46%) – 1.5u
Paul Craig ITD +275 (26.67%) – .25u

I think Nikita Krylov is one of the more overrated fighters in the division. People like to look at his record and see his losses are only to championship caliber fighters. But he is mostly effective when he is grappling, but he is sloppy. And sloppy grappling will not work with Paul Craig. I expect Krylov to get subbed, or get battered on his back.

Mike Grundy ML -190 (65.52%) – 2u
Mike Grundy ITD +285 (25.97%) – .5u

Makwan is most effective when he can grind and grapple his opponents. That will be next to impossible for him against a guy like Grundy. Grundy was a world class wrestler in England, and there is a high likelihood he is the one that controls the grappling.

Grundy will also be far more likely to be fresh late in the fight. The finish is under priced here. Wanted to bet 3rd round finish for Grundy, but keeping it simple.

Dan Hooker ML -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

Ok, this fight is so so close. But I am taking Dans experience and size. I think he will be able to physically overwhelm Arnold, and will keep Arnold on his back foot and will be landing more strikes.

Tom Aspinall SUB +550 (15.38%) – .25u
Tom Aspinall TKO RD 1 +600 (14.29%) .25u
Alexander Volkov RD 3 +1200 (7.69%) .1u
Alexander Volkov RD 4 +1500 (6.25%) .1u
Alexander Volkov RD 5 +2200 (4.35%) .1u
Volkov vs Aspinall UNDER 4.5 -155 (60.78%) 3u

Ok, throwing some darts on this one.

Few ways I see this playing,
Tom is just too quick for Volkov, he is able to get inside early and lands the clean punch to take Volkov out.
Tom is unable to find that punch that lands him the early KO, they start trading punches, and Tom sneaks in a takedown and the sub play becomes a possibility (like the Arlovski fight)
Tom is unable to put Volkov away and starts to fade late, and Volkov takes over and puts Tom away.

Either way, I like the odds of this fight ending at some point. So main play is on the under 4.5 rounds at -155. With some darts to hopefully increase the pay out.

Topuria – Pimblett PARLAY -339 (77.22%) – 2u

Beginning of linking up some parlays.

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna PARLAY +109 (47.85%) – 3.5u

Main parlay play. Like these 4 favourites in their fights.

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna – Grundy – Valiev PARLAY +496 (16.78%) – 2u

Adding in two more of my favourites in the card into the parlay

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna – Grundy – Valiev – Craig – Hooker PARLAY +2938 (3.29%) – 1u

Parlaying the rest of the picks!

Nelson – Grundy – Valiev PARLAY +237 (29.67%) – 2u

Getting some parlay action away from some of the heavy favourites to hedge some potential craziness busting the parlays.

Craig ITD – Grundy ITD – Nelson ITD PARLAY +2000 (4.76%) – .25u

Taking the highest conviction/value props and parlaying them!

Valiev – Craig ITD – Grundy ITD – Nelson ITD – Pimblett RD 1 – Hooker DEC PARLAY +26087 (.38%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

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Fight Night Santos vs Ankalaev – Bets

March 11, 2022 — Leave a comment

Azamat Murzakanov ML -190 (65.52%) – 2.5u

Azamat might be a serious threat at 205. He might be a little undersized, but he has a good first matchup in his UFC debut. He will be able to out grapple Tafon if he needs to, and he carries serious KO power. But I think they may stall each other out, and this favours Azamat

Guido Cannetti ML +126 (44.25%) – 1u
Guido Cannetti DEC +300 (25%) – .25u

Everyone is praising Moutinho for being able to take a whooping from Suga Sean. But getting battered is not usually a good thing. And he had similar struggles against regional competition. Playing the line here and betting on the UFC vet to grind out a decision.

Damon Jackson ML -115 (53.49%) – 1.5u

Taking Jacksons higher level experience and heavy grapple attack to get the job done here

Javid Basharat ML -148 (59.68%) – 3u
Javid Basharat ITD +165 (37.74%) – 1u

Javid has a really tough fight here. Trevin Jones is good. But I think Javid could make a big splash at 135. I am really excited about this guy. He looks like a serious athlete and is dangerous every where the fight goes. If Javid isn’t able to overwhelm him with superior skills early, I expect he will be able to wear him down and take him out late. Really looking forward to this one.

AJ Fletcher ML +168 (37.31%) – 1u
AJ Fletcher ITD +300 (25.00%) – .25u

AJ Fletcher has not fought the best competition, and there is a good chance he runs into someone who is too good and too experienced pretty early in his UFC career, but – he is a solid athlete and is very explosive. And he has enough skills to get himself to the UFC. I do not think Semelsberger will be able to establish his striking from a distance with Fletcher in his face and changing levels. I think Fletcher catches him faking a takedown, or wears him down and subs him.

Alex Pereira ML -190 (65.52%) – 3.5u
Alex Pereira ITD -150 (60.00%) – 1.5u
Alex Pereira TKO RD1 +165 (37.74%) – .25u

Ok, we gotta be careful here. This will most likely be two dudes who love to finish throwing down. And Bruno Silva will probably threaten level changes which will add to his ways to win.

But – this feels like a showcase fight for Alex Pereira. Both these guys are going to want to strike and, on paper, Alex Pereira has a large advantage. He was a Glory champ and one of the best kickboxers in the world! And, even when he did lose to other high level kickboxers, he was known for having a chin. Hard to imagine Bruno Silva will be able to catch him.

Terrance McKinney ML +135 (42.55%) – 3u
Terrance McKinney ITD +200 (33.33%) – .75u
Terrance McKinney SUB +425 (19.05%) – .25u

I think highly of Drew Dober, but I am surprised to see McKinney as the underdog here. McKinney is a terrible matchup for Dober. McKinney showed his high quality grappling skills in his last fight, and I expect him to do the same here against the striker Drew Dober.

Plus, McKinney is the younger fighter with the momentum. Happy to bet this line.

Sodiq Yusuff DEC +165 (37.74%) – .75u

I don’t love the ML line, I am gonna chalk up the favourites in the 3 final fights and play it that way.

So for this fight I am throwing a dart on Yusuff by decision. He has not shown he can take out UFC caliber fighters, and Caceres is tough to take out. But Sodiq could easily find Caceres’ chin and take him out. So small play.

Song Yadong RD 2 +450 (18.18%) – .25u
Song Yadong RD 3 +900 (10.00%) – .25u

We all know Marlon will be dangerous in the first round, and as the fight goes it will favour Song. So throwing small darts he takes Marlon out in either of the later rounds. Will have him in a chalk parlay

Magomed Ankalaev UNAM DEC +200 (33.33%) – .5u

I really didn’t like any of the lines for this fight. And it is hard to know what to expect from Santos. But Thiago has been very hesitant in his last few. Betting we see a clear win for Magomed, but not enough action for the fight to be finished.

We could see Magomed steamroll an over the hill fighter. But I don’t like betting on assumptions. Magomeds two most recent fights have gone to decision, so betting on that.

Yusuff – Song – Ankalaev PARLAY +115 (46.51%) – 2.5u

Large chalk bet final 3 fights of the event. I am considering this 2.5u bet my main way of playing the final 3 fights with heavy favourites. Coupled with my prop darts. Could pay off extra, or I could lose all. We will see!

Murzakanov – Basharat – Pereira – McKinney PARLAY +790 (11.24%) – .75u

My favourite “value” picks parlayed up.

Basharat ITD – Pereira ITD – McKinney ITD PARLAY +1225 (7.55%) – .25u

Small bet on highest conviction props.

Murzakanov – Cannetti – Jackson – Basharat – Fletcher –  Pereira – McKinney – Yusuff – Song – Ankalaev PARLAY +20980 (.47%) – .1u

A second long shot for this week! Taking all my picks and parlying them up.

Cannetti DEC – Basharat ITD – Fletcher ITD – Pereira ITD – McKinney ITD – Yusuff DEC PARLAY +51840 (.19%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

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UFC 272 – Bets

March 4, 2022 — Leave a comment

Dustin Jacoby ML -190 (65.52%) – 2u

This should be a striking battle, and Jacoby should be the more polished and experienced striker.

Devonte Smith ML -150 (60.00%) – 2u

Devonte Smith might be one of the biggest underperformers in the UFC. He has had trouble putting a string of wins together, but there are some serious skills, and natural abilities there. In his last fight he dropped Mullarkey multiple times before he was overwhelmed and finished. He has a favourable matchup here, Klien is a striker, and he has some good kicks. But Smith should be able to handle him here.

Tim Elliot ML +180 (35.71%) – 1u

Tim Elliott is being disrespected by the lines, and Tagir is being given too much respect. Tagir had troubles against a grappler in his last time out, and Elliott is not going to be easy to handle on the ground. Elliott should have better striking, and he has far more experience. Like this line.

Nick Negumereanu ITD +225 (30.77%) – .25u

Some flier on an underdog in a close fight with a 90%+ finishing rate. Against a chinny opponent.

Marina Rodriguez ML -265 (72.60%) – 2u
Marina Rodriguez ITD +250 (28.57%) – 1u

This should be a stand up fight, and that should heavily favour the better striker, Marina. Will have a some money on Marina in parlays as well, so putting a larger bet on her finishing the fight.

Jalin Turner ML -155 (60.78%) – 2.5u
Jalin Turner ITD +140 (41.67%) – 1u
Turner – Mullarkey UNDER 2.5 -165 (62.26%) – 2u

I like Jalin in this fight. He should be the better striker, and he has showed a willingness to take the fight to the ground recently. He’s also the more physically gifted of the two.

Mullarkey will be game though. He has looked really good over his last two fights. He had a really impressive come from behind KO in his last fight against Devonte Smith.

We could see Mullarkey clip him and take him out. Betting the under as a sort of hedge, as I do expect someone to be finished. -165 is generous. in 34 combined fights, they have been to 5 decisions.

Kevin Holland ITD -120 (54.55%) – 1u

This should be a good fight for Holland. I am excepting him to look good in his welterweight debut. Putting a small bet on him finishing, even though Oliveira could survive. Have Holland in some parlays.

Edson Barboza ML +135 (42.55%) – 2u
Edson Barboza ITD +240 (29.41%) – .75u

I am fading the Bryce Mitchell here. He has showed an ability to land some punches as of late – but Edson is going to have a large advantage on the feet. Then the question becomes, will Mitchell be able to take Barboza down and keep him down? He will try, alot. And I am sure he will land some takedowns. But Edson has close to an 80% career UFC takedown defense. He had a 70% TDD against Khabib! I think Edson will be able to keep this on the feet, and prove himself to be the better overall fighter.

Rodriguez – Holland PARLAY -139 (58.16%) – 2u

My small chalk for the event. Feel good about both these picks.

Rodriguez – Holland – Barboza PARLAY +301 (24.94%) – 1u

Adding an underdog pick to my two chalks to add to each of these picks.

Jacoby – Smith – Elliot – Rodriguez – Turner – Holland – Barboza PARLAY +4601 (2.13%) – .25u

Taking all my picks and parlying them up.

Barboza ITD – Holland ITD – Turner ITD – Rodriguez ITD PARLAY +5136 (1.91%) – .25u

Small bet on highest conviction props.

Barboza ITD – Holland ITD – Turner ITD – Rodriguez ITD – Smith ITD – Elliott PARLAY +32154 (.31%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

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UFC Fight Night Makhachev vs Green – Bets

February 25, 2022 — 2 Comments

Terrance McKinney ML -105 (51.22%) – 2.5u

This is a great matchup for Terrance McKinney and his career. He is building a reputation as a KO artist, but his background is wrestling. So matching him up with an experienced striker is a great next step. How can he hang on the feet? Can he last if the KO doesnt come? Will he change levels?

Lots of questions. But my money is on Terrance figuring it out. And he can wrestle if he needs to. Happy to bet him at basically even money.

Josiane Nunes ITD -120 (54.55%) – 2u
Josiane Nunes RD 1 +165 (37.74%) – .5u

Nunes is a bulldog. And has some serious power. And her opponent? Ramona Pascual.. Well –

She seems like a really cool person. She has a Ted Talk on Youtube! And she has been a pro since 2016. But she is accepting this fight on really short notice. And I am not sure she is even a true professional MMA fighter, let alone UFC caliber.

I think we might see a quick one here – I honestly kind of hope I’m wrong. Because this one might be ugly..

Zhu Rong ML +170 (37.04%) – 1u
Zhu Rong SUB +1000 (9.09%) – .25u

I was gonna bet even smaller on this one until Zhu Rong missed weight. And I know that might sound weird. But I was leaning Zhu Rong at these odds because I thought his heavy style would be a good counter to Ignacio. Zhu Rong would have big hard punches down the middle, and would lean on Ignacio. Chain wrestle and mix up strikes. More ways to win.

But now that I know he is literally heavy going into this fight, I added a bit of conviction.

Gregory Rodrigues SUB +275 (26.67%) – .5u

Ok so as the week went by, conviction in this pick slowly dwindled. I just can’t trust Rodrigues’ chin.

But – I will stick with my original assumption of what his best path to victory is. And throw a dart on the BJJ ace submitting the striker.

Joel Alvarez ML +175 (36.36%) – 1.5u
Joel Alvarez ITD +225 (28.17%) – .75u

Ok – so I can’t lie to my dozens of readers. Before I started publicly posting my bets, I faded Joel Alvarez hard. I really thought Thiago Moises was a bad matchup for him. That was a tough loss at ~-260.

So maybe I am just some Degenerate Mark chasing cash after the last guy I seen win..

But I think Joel Alvarez is a serious threat at 155. He is enormous. And he has some really clean and powerful striking. Plus he has 16 wins via submission!? Is Arman sure he wants to wrestle??

But Arman is so good too, it is hard to have too much conviction here. Arman might be the one who dictates where the fight takes place, and as the fight goes it will get harder for Joel to find the sub.

So be careful. I think we are all gonna have a second chance to bet on this fight one day anyways…

Misha Cirkunov ML -125 (55.56%) – 1.5u

I wish I could have more conviction in this pick. I don’t think Turman should have anything for Misha. But one thing I have learned in my years betting MMA, be careful with guys who haven’t won recently.

It’s like buying a falling stock. Are you sure you know why this isnt working? Tough recent stretch? Or are they about to go bankrupt..

I’m buying the dip on Misha Cirkunov. But I’m being careful.

Makhachev vs Green OVER 2.5 -105 (51.22%) – 2.5u
Islam Makhachev DEC +310 (24.39%) – .75u

I really like this bet.

Nearly 49% of Lightweight fights go the distance.
38% of Islam Makhachevs wins have come via decision (I’d also bet this number is more likely to go up over time).
46% of Bobby Greens fights have gone the distance. 78% of Bobby Greens UFC fights have gone the distance!

Islam is the rightful favourite here. But I am happy to bet that there is a 24% chance Islam Makhachev takes Bobby Green to a decision. Bobby is tough! I’d be surprised if Islam just steamrolls Bobby early. Think this one gets drawn out. Most my bet is on a simple over 2.5, gotta be responsible.

McKinney – Nunes – Cirkunov PARLAY +413 (19.49%) – .75u

A way of adding a bit more to a few of my favourite plays. I didn’t want to add Makhachev. Didn’t think the small change in odds was worth it.

McKinney – Nunes – Zhu Rong – Rodrigues – Alvarez – Cirkunov – Makhachev PARLAY +6716 (1.46%) – .25u

Parlaying up my picks. Bless.

McKinny ITD – Nunes RD 1 – Rodrigues SUB – Alvarez ITD –  Cirkunov ITD – Makhachev DEC PARLAY +93627 (.11%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

These long shot parlays are definitely going to be a mainstay from now on btw…
They are fun!

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UFC Fight Night – Walker vs Hill – Bets

February 18, 2022 — 1 Comment

Jesse Strader TKO +425 (19.05%) – .25u

Ok, this is not exactly a UFC caliber fight. Chad Anheliger could grind out a win, or stop the fight, but he keeps his hands really low. But there is no reason for him to be this big of a favourite. And I am willing to place a small bet that Strader is gonna catch him, because he does have some power.

David Onama ML -165 (62.26%) – 2.5u

I am a big believer in Onama, and this is a great stylistic matchup for him. I think he gets the TKO, but playing it safe with a solid ML bet.

Joaquin Buckley ML -170 (62.96%) – 2.5u
Joaquin Buckley SUB +1800 (5.26%) – .25u

Ok – I am a little nervous about this one. I really hope Joaquin Buckley plays it safe and grinds Alhassan down, especially early. If he chooses to just put on a show and ‘stand and bang’, then all the more power to him, but the odds in this fight change significantly.

But Buckley showed a willingness to shoot for the takedown in his last fight, and the hope is this fight ends up with Joaquin Buckley on top for much of the fight, and the +1800 sub prop becomes a possibility.

Or – these two will just trade it out, and the first one to connect wins. We’ll see. Please be smart, Joaquin!

Jim Miller ML +147 (40.49%) – 2u
Jim Miller ITD +107 (48.31%) – .25u

This line is ridiculous. Too much emphasis is being put on the age gap, and Motta’s recent win streak.

Jim Miller has the most fights in UFC history! And he is a tough style matchup for Motta. Motta has a reputation as a power puncher, but as he’s fought better guys on his way to the UFC, the KOs have not come as easily, and actually getting a KO in the UFC is entirely different – especially against a guy like Jim Miller!

Kyle Daukaus TKO +650 (13.33%) – .25u

Ok – I was going to avoid this fight. Didn’t really like any of the lines, nor did I trust either of them. Both these guys feel like candidates to under or over perform. Hard to get a read.

But – watching closer, I think Kyle Daukaus’ power and striking is being undervalued, and Pickett can get clipped. Daukaus has clipped guys in fights before, happy to take a small flier at +650

Bautista TKO – Milller ITD – Buckley ITD – Onama TKO – Strader TKO – Walker TKO PARLAY +119521 (.08%) – .1u
Bautista TKO – Milller ITD – Buckley ITD – Onama TKO PARLAY +5596 (1.76%) – .25u

Ok, I will be honest here. When I started this website, and started tracking and posting my bets, I told myself that I would generally avoid parlays. I was going to take a more conservative approach, find the value in lines – and long term I will have a solid track record.

But – the more I’ve thought about it, these low risk, high reward plays seem to be an effective way to utilize leverage in betting. I will absolutely still be very diligent about each pick I make, and I will treat these as more “fun” plays. But I am curious to see if I can get lucky and make one of these work some day. Would really only take one to be worth it.

Also – and once again, to be completely honest, cashing a big play like this would be a great way to build my reputation. As that is my key focus, as I do not sell ads on my site, and I do not sell my picks.

Bautista – Pearce – Onama – Porter – Skelly – Miller – Buckley PARLAY +2031 (4.69%) – .25u
Bautista – Onama – Miller PARLAY +415 (19.42%) – .5u

Small plays on a group of my favourite picks. And slightly bigger play on my 3 favorite.

UFC 271 – Bets

February 11, 2022 — 1 Comment

Douglas Silva de Andrade ML +175 (36.36%) – 1.5u

Betting the line here. Douglas has fought the best in the world at 135, and despite being 36 years old, he is still in great shape and is very strong for the weight class. And he has only lost to the very best at 135. And there is no evidence that Moroz is a top 5 bantamweight, so if the books are going to give Douglas a 36% chance of winning this fight, I will happily take that bet.

Morozov could chain wrestle and grind Douglas against the cage and ride out a decision win. But Douglas will not be easy to hold, and is a competent grappler himself. When they are at distance I expect Douglas to really show the gap in their striking.

AJ Dobson ML -118 (54.13%) – 4u
AJ Dobson ITD +120 (45.45%) – 1.5u
AJ Dobson 1ST RD +300 (25%) – .25u

It is difficult to have strong conviction a fighter is going to win when they have never won in the UFC before, especially when their opponent does have a UFC win(s).

But I am happy to do it here – AJ Dobson looks like he could be an absolute monster, and I do not think his opponent, Jacob Malkoun, will have much to offer in the fight. Jacob won his last fight with a relentless takedown game against a bloated and out of shape opponent. And that could happen again, but I really doubt it.

I expect AJ to blitz and steamroll Malkoun, with little resistance.

Casey O’Neill ITD +180 (35.71%) – .75u

I have a ton of respect for Roxanne. But this is an absolutely terrible style matchup for her. Casey will be better and stronger where Roxanne wants this fight to take place, and I expect the ref to save Roxanne in her final fight while being hammered with punches in the mount.

Bobby Green ML -145 (59.18%) – 2u

Bobby Green is one of the most underrated fighters in what is probably the deepest division in the sport. He has stuck around in there with some of the worlds best.

Nasrat will want to land a big punch, but Bobby Green is really tough to catch, and even tougher to catch clean and take out. At the worst, I expect Bobby Green to out point fight Nasrat. Hopefully change levels and mix it up. At best, he lands a clean punch and takes him out.

Jared Cannonier ML -160 (61.54%) – 2.5u
Jared Cannonier ITD +400 (20%) – .25u

This is where we see Derek Brunson meet his limit in his climb to the top at 185. We will understand after this fight that there are clear tiers in this weight class.

Derek will have a tough time getting Jared down, and an even harder time keeping him down. And when Jared hits Brunson – because he is definitely going to hit him at some point, we will see the fight changing power that Jared carries.

Cannonier – O’Neill – Dobson PARLAY +267 (27.25%) – 1u

Taking my highest conviction picks and parlaying them up.

Was really tempted to throw Green in here, but that was getting too greedy.

UFC Fight Night Hermansson vs Strickland – Bets

February 4, 2022 — Leave a comment

Malcolm Gordon ML +240 (29.41%) – .5u

Bondar looks good, and he is my pick. But Bondar has not fought the competition Gordon has.
Bondar will want to take this to the ground, and Gordon will be able to hang with him there.
Gotta play the line here, Gordon has a better than 30% chance to win this.

Philip Rowe ML -140 (58.33%) – 2u

I expect Rowe to be the faster and more dangerous fighter. Quicker hands, better grappling. Like this bet.

Chidi Njokuani ML -105 (51.22%) – 2u

Chidi has fought some of the best fighters outside the UFC. Despite being the one making his UFC debut, I’d give him the experience advantage! This is also a favourable style matchup. Chidi will have many opportunities to display his superior striking. And at nearly 50/50 odds? I’ll take that.

Hakeem Dawodu ML -165 (62.26%) – 3u
Hakeem Dawodu TKO +340 (22.73%) – .75u

My biggest bet of the card.

I am really high on Hakeem. I think he has the skills to hang with the best in the world at his weight. He also has a very underrated track record, he started his pro MMA career in a high level organization. And his fights in the UFC have mostly come against really tough guys who don’t have a big name.

I see Trizano walking Hakeem down and stepping right into that nasty power Hakeem carries.

John Castañeda ITD +400 (20%) – .25u

My pick here is Miles Johns. I think he is the fighter to watch, I really do think he is underrated.

But the danger Castaneda presents is not being respected by these lines. So I gotta place a small bet.

Brendan Allen SUB +300 (25%) – .75u

I feel good about this bet. Can’t get overly crazy on prop bets. But Allen by sub seems to be a very plausible path to victory. Allen is known as a grappler, who just got KO’d his last time out, taking a fight on short notice. And Sam Alvey would definitely prefer this fight be on the feet. Allen getting this to the ground and using his grappling to finish this fight – apparently, only has a 25% chance of happening.

…..wanna bet!?

Carlston Harris TKO +650 (13.33%) – .25u
Under 2.5 rounds -170 (62.96%) – 2.5u

Shavkat is the one with the hype, and all the focus seems to be on his future. And rightfully so! He does look to be very good. But – he does get hit. And Harris has a nice winning streak of his own and some serious power. I could see Harris clipping Shavkat and putting him out.

Betting under 2.5 seems like an easy call. They both finish fights. When fighters tell you who they are, believe them.

Nick Maximov ML +155 (39.22%) – 2u
Nick Maximov ITD +340 (22.73%) – .5
Nick Maximov WIN IN RD 3 +1800 (5.26%) – .25

I am not that sold on Soriano. I think he can catch slow guys who think they are strikers. But Maximov will chain wrestle and wear Soriano down, leaving the opening for a late finish. Happy to take a small flier on him winning in the 3rd.

Sean Strickland ML -220 (68.75%) – 2.5u
Sean Strickland TKO +240 (29.41%) – 1u

Sean Strickland has fantastic TakeDown Defense, he had a 75% TDD against Kamaru! And has an 82% TDD overal in his career. I expect Jack, who has a 36% takedown success rate in the UFC, will not have an easy time taking Sean down. Then we will see the large gap that exists between their striking.

Jailton Almeida – Julian Erosa – Brendan Allen PARLAY -105 (51.22%) – 1u

Please chalk responsibly