FULL UFC Vegas 86
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Title
Description
Daniel Marcos vs Aoriqileng
This feels like a step down in competition for Marcos. He should be too fast and skilled on the feet, and Aoriqileng will have a tough time winning this fight over 15 minutes with his grappling.
Hyder Amil vs Fernie Garcia
Can’t bet either guy. Avoid.
Zac Pauga vs Bogdan Guskov
Can’t bet either guy. Avoid
Jeremiah Wells vs Max Griffin
Like Wells explosiveness and athleticism in combination with his willingness to mix in takedowns with his KO power. However, Griffin is a savvy vet, if this fight gets extended it is probably because Griffin is successfully playing his game. And it is likely that Griffin will be the more effective fighter later into the fight. Picking Wells, but low conviction.
Devin Clark vs Marcin Prachnio
Clark should be able to grind his way to a win. Possibly finish it later, but he is hard to trust.
Loma Lookboonmee vs Bruna Brasil
I like Loma, she has become a little killer. Quick on the feet and a shark on the ground, but the problem is, there is also something to like about Bruna Brasil. I don’t like Brasil enough to use her to fade Loma, but we need to respect the otherside here. Brasil is a good counter striker and solid athlete, she could pose challenges for Loma in many places this fight will take place. But overall, going with Loma’s well rounded game and her experience. But only putting her in the 4th line of the parlay.
Timothy Cuamba vs Bolaji Oki
Don’t know much about either of these contender series vets, but from what we do know, Oki is the side. He looks far more dangerous, he has a better resume, and he is an actual 155er.
Trevin Giles vs Carlos Prates
We are learning that you need to be careful with some of these contender series guys, there are a lot of frauds out there. There would be those out there making an argument here for Giles to fraud check the UFC debutant sitting at -250. However, Prates is not your typical contender series debutant. He is 30 years old, has 23 pro MMA fights and an extensive kickboxing background. He will have a sizeable edge on the feet here against Giles. Giles will want to make this dirty and grind Prates down, but Giles usually finds his success striking at distance, which will be tough to do here. Feel good about backing Prates.
Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan
Alright, I have unusually high convection on this one. Now it is nothing too crazy, but there is a little extra juice on this one. Sizeable ML and prop allocation. This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup, and one where the gap between their opposing skills is very different. Armen is much better at Vieiras strength than Vieira is at his. Armen has shown great get up ability, and has been able to survive in tough spots against good grapplers. Whereas Vieira is very vulnerable on the feet. In his last fight he was almost taken out by the world class striker Cody Brundage. Now it can be unfair to discredit him too much just for that one round. But regardless, if Armen is able to peel Rodolfo off him a few times early, Vieira will look like a fish out of water in comparison to Armen on the feet. And as the fight goes, the harder it will be for Vieira to get the fight to the ground, much like we seen in the Curtis fight – where attempted 20 takedowns, all unsuccessfully! Worst case, Armen is better as the fight goes and wins 2 rounds, but I see Armen hurting him early and often after the takedown threats quickly subsides.
Michael Johnson vs Darius Flowers
Michael should be better, but he is hard to trust. Darrius could clip him. Nothing here. Avoid.
Brad Tavares vs Gregory Rodrigues
High conviction in Robocop here. Two different trajectories in their careers, and Rodrigues should be better in every aspect of this fight. Tavares is a solid striker, and could out point Rodrigues. Especially if he stuffs a few takedowns, but Tavares has looked slower and more vulnerable his last few times out. And Rodrigues can throw down. He is a big athletic dude who has some solid technique and power. But the real difference here could be the grappling. Tavares has some solid takedown defence stats, but if Rodrigues decides to chase the takedown, he will get it there. Robocop has done some of his best work on the ground, and he seems to finally be realizing it. It has been frustrating for Robocop backers to see him always stand and trade, but in his last fight he shot for the takedown in less than a minute! And then the fight was over shortly after. I would love to see him do the same in this fight and try and take this down ASAP.
Ihor Potieria vs Robert Bryczek
Hard to trust either guy here. Ihor is a live dog, but he is not worth the bet at these prices. Avoid.
Dan Ige vs Andre Fili
Like Ige’s boxing edge and his strong wrestling to utilize that advantage throughout the fight. Fili has a tough record, but regardless he has some skills, need to respect that. But Ige is a solid price here. Happy to back him.
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer
Joe has some freaky power, and he is a strong grappler. This is a good matchup for his first real test in the UFC. If Joe gets fraud checked it is most likely because Jack is able to freeze Joe and score from the outside, but if Joe has success he catches him with a big punch or overwhelms him on the ground. Don’t over think this one, see Joe getting another finish.
Good luck, degenerates