FULL UFC Vegas 84
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Description
Joshua Van vs Felipe Bunes
Van got too juiced here, had to avoid. Van has not shown us enough yet to bet him at this line, this fight could end up being a closely contested fight on the feet and at best, I think we’d sweat the nearly -300 line on Van.
Tom Nolan vs Nikolas Motta
I am a Nolan truther. I think this kid could be good. Motta gets hit and KO’d, he has 4 losses via KO and 3 of those in the first round. Nolan looks to have some serious power and the ability to effectively utilize his range. This feels like a squash match for one of the prospects to watch in 2024.
Jean Silva vs Westin Wilson
This line has become silly. I get it, Westin Wilson does not appear to be UFC calibur and does not have UFC experience other than a short notice call up and subsequent smashing. Silva does appear to be UFC calibur, but this is a big line for a guy making his debut. I put him in the top line of the PRP for this event, but he was venturing close to avoid territory at those prices.
Farid Basharat vs Taylor Lapilus
This has been an interesting one to watch the other cappers make their bets. I am of the opinion that Farid is great bet at sub -300. Farid has fought, and finished, far better fighters than Lapilus. Farid has the grappling to take Taylor out of his game, and the striking to still be effective on the feet. I do not always put a guy in my PRP top line and make a straight ML bet, but I am confident in a worst case scenario Farid will take two rounds with his grappling.
Marcus McGhee vs Gaston Bolanos
Like McGhee here, and I put him in the PRP. I do believe he is more well rounded and athletic, but Bolanos has skills on the feet where this fight is most likely to take place. The hope will be that McGhee will mix it up with takedowns and will be better as the fight goes.
Matthew Semelsberger vs Preston Parsons
Now, I typically try and avoid fighters on a losing streak. But I am backing Semelsberger here. Semelsberger was looking good in his last fight and he was on his way to winning until he got dropped late and the fight was (arguably) stopped prematurely. Semelsberger should have the striking edge to hit the hittable Parsons, and he should have the grappling and strength/size to keep Parsons off him. At basically even money I’ll take the well rounded vet.
Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
This fight and this line are both gross. Arlovski is like 100 years old, he will have a tough time grabbing two rounds off the young contender. Acosta via TKO seems like the easy guess here, but I just threw the chalk in my PRP. I do not see Acosta heading for the title anytime soon, but he is a decent HW prospect, this should be a fight he is taking.
Phil Hawes vs Brunno Ferriera
This fight is tempting and fun. It is a true gamble! And you can make a good case for both sides. You either back Phil, who should be the far better fighter. Or you back the stone hands against the glass jaw. But these are not the type of bets we make. Happy to avoid.
Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista
Love this fight. Fantastic matchmaking and I expect to see a fun fight. But more importantly – I love this line. Ricky is the higher profile fighter, just coming off of his first UFC main event. He has good pressure and will always be a takedown threat. However, I am happy to take Mario at dog prices here. This dude has been on a tear and is looking better every fight. Simon has shown some vulnerabilities on the feet, something Mario has the ability to exploit. The takedown in the small cage will be how Simon wins this fight, but Mario is no slouch in the grappling department, I expect him to be able to stay off his back.
Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benitez
I can’t bet either of these guys. I know they have different fight styles, but for some reason they seem similar to me. Gabriel is almost like the Mexican Jim Miller. The dude has been in the UFC for more than 10 years! He has also had his ups and downs, had some finishes and some tough losses. I’d pick Jim, but just can’t find any edge in this line. Avoid.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker
I am a believer in the resurgence of Johnny Walker, he has a ton of raw skill and it seems John Kavanagh has done wonders for his game planning and technical skills. But at the same time – I was someone who had Ankalaev earmarked for the title. So at their fight at 294, when Ankalaev was around -350, I had Ankalaev near the bottom of my PRP. So Ankalaev was the pick but did not have much conviction. Now we’ve seen a them in the cage together, granted it was only a short time, and Ankalaev is a bigger fave! To me, this was the wrong takeaway from that short fight. I think Johnny is live here, so taking a small flier on him and the +700 TKO prop.
Good luck, degenerates!!
FULL UFC Vegas 84
RESULTS
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Description
Frustrating loss. You aren’t going to get every read right, but you can protect yourself by following the rough guidelines you’ve set for yourself. I broke two pretty basic rules this event. The first rule broken was actually mentioned in my initial write up! “Now, I typically try and avoid fighters on a losing streak. But I am backing Semelsberger here.” It is funny how often you regret writing things like that. If you’re trying to justify why its ok to break a rule, you should check yourself, and your ego. The prefight confidence you have in your reads can be a dangerous thing to allow to go unchecked. Which leads to the second mistake, putting a 23 year old UFC debutant in the PRP top line. This was the first unprofitable PRP in 8 UFC events and I deserved to bust it. To be profitable long term, there needs to be higher standards for the top line, unproven fighters in the top of the PRP will chip away at the EV of the PRPs. Now, realtically, my prefight confidence in Nolan would have meant he was going to be high the PRP. But I still could have profited if my top line stayed intact.