FULL UFC 287
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The UFCs return to Miami! We got a fun one on our hands. Izzy’s 4th try at beating Alex Pereira, and the hometown boy Jorge Masvidal looks for his first win since 2019 when he fights one the very best fighters in the world, Gilbert Burns.
My parlays will be heavily reliant on the first few fights on the night.
I have Jaqueline Amorim in my top line, she is one of the better prospects at 115. She is a decorated world class grappler, and she should easily prove to be a different level than Sam Hughes.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is the other in my top line, he is currently on a 3 fight win streak, and his well rounded game should be too much for the limited Steve Garcia. Shayilan’s wrestling should provide an easy PTV, but he is more than capable on the feet as well.
I mostly avoided Kelvin vs Curtis. Too much unknown. I am taking a bit of a flier on the under in this one. This fight seems close – in terms of trying to decide who to back. I do think there is a better than even chance the fight doesn’t ultimately look close. I just don’t know who to back. Curtis could sleep an over the hill Kelvin, or Kelvin could prove to be a different level and be too much for Curtis. Kelvin loves the decision, and that’s why we get the price we do. But I think there could be some +EV in this U 2.5.
I like Holland here, but he is hard to trust with your money. I faded him against Wonderboy, but I felt for Holland backers. His refusal to take the fight to the ground cost him the fight. Kevin is always a bit of a wild card, but he matchs up well against Ponz. Ponz has slowed down significantly and Kevin does have the ability to take advantage of that gap in speed.
Ugh – this Font Yanez fight has been tough to cap. A classic crossroads fight. The young up and comer on a winning streak takes on the high ranked established contender on a skid. I locked in my Font support, but I went back and forth a lot. I have been trying to avoid these bets that I don’t “feel” great about. But I stuck with my original read that Font is good value. There is a fair chance this fight between two high volume punchers is close, and holding the ticket on the plus money guy will feel like a good bet.
Ok – there is a part of me that thinks/wants to see some magic from Jorge at home in Miami. I don’t love Jorge, but I do love when the crowd gets to see their guy get it done. But there is a particular reality that is hard to ignore. And that reality is that Gilbert Burns is a top P4P fighter in the world, and Jorge Masvidal is barely a top 20 WW at this point. The talk from Jorge is that he will have the striking advantage, but I barely think this is even the case. And Gilbert has a clear advantage if this goes to the ground. Gilbert via sub at +225 is a nice line. I normally like to back the ITD, but that line is hard to ignore.
Alright, the main event. We just seen this with Usman vs Edwards, the long time champ coming back to get their title. And the market still expecting to see the old champ make things right and reclaim their throne. Not only does history not support the former champ, but this is not a normal rematch, these two have a history. And all their fights have looked the same. Alex winning. You hear about Izzy talking about wrestling, and the success he has had in their previous fights before getting “caught” but everything points to Alex being the bet. The history of these types of rematches, the actual history between these two, the line. Alex is the bet here. Alex seems relaxed, Izzy seems shook. Alex is just so damn big too. I like Izzy, it’d be amazing to see him get his belt back with everything surrounding this fight. But once again, Alex is the bet.