FULL UFC 286
LOCKED IN
Title
Description
Another PPV – it is unusual to have PPVs so close together, but I’ll take it. And this PPV is more for the UK market, it was added to the schedule once this fight became possible. The crowds at these UK shows are something else, it really adds to the viewing experience. It is not the deepest card, but it should be fun, and the PPV is pretty good.
The final two fights are really high end, the best the sport has to offer. High end violence with Gaethje vs Fiziev, and one of the most intriguing trilogies in the history of the sport, Leon vs Usman.
Some bets comments,
Putting Lerone Murphy in my top line, he has beaten some real solid UFC featherweights, this is a lot to ask for Gabriel Santos making his UFC debut in enemy territory. This should be a stand up fight and Lerone looks far more polished, and will be much more comfortable going through a UFC fight and fight week.
I keep waiting for Roman to lose. I believe Romans ceiling is somewhere before the title, but I have learned to be careful fading him. Dangerous guys like him on good streaks can be dangerous. However, taking advantage of the line available and betting Marvin DEC. And respecting Roman by keeping Vettori out of my PRP.
Shore should be able to grind and wear down Makwan, who has struggled in his UFC career.
I do not think Hadley is worth that price. If he is going to be someone, he needs to beat Gordon, and more often than not he probably does. Probably. Hadley is solid, he is well rounded and guys like him can get better quick. But he is green, and Malcolm will be dangerous, and big. Malcolm will exchange wins and losses, but he can hang in there with some of the best, he’s is underrated and will be a live dog.
Gaethje vs Fiziev feels like a most violent man passing of the torch. Justin at plus money seems tempting, but Fiziev is the far more polished kickboxer, and if Justin decides is use his wrestling, Fiziev has a 92% TDD! And Justin has a 0% takedown rate.. It is hard to rely on that path for Justin. So if this plays out on the feet, Fiziev should have an edge. But Justin is tough, the decision play on Fiziev feels like some +EV.
I am backing the champ. We have seen this so many times, a champ is upset and in the immediate rematch we expect the former champ to make things right. But things are often different in the 2nd fight, the momentum has changed. And with this one, we have the former champ at -200, the people are expecting the former champ to make things right! And there is good reason to think that here – Usman was winning that fight until that kick! And Usman won the first fight. We have seen these two fight a lot, and the majority of the time Usman has been getting the best of it. But in the last fight, Edwards showed well. And Usman is a fighter just tipping on the edge of aging out of the top of the division. Usman has very well documented knee issues, and stone cold head kick knockouts can age a fighter quickly. Edwards will be at home, and I see this being a closely contested fight, and I am backing the champ with the momentum at home at plus money to take at least 3 rounds.