FULL UFC Las Vegas
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Chalky card, but I am back to paper betting for this one. Still looking to find my right balance. Feel close, yet so far. But that is the game!
It is a pretty good card. The main event is elite and high stakes.
I think there is a better than 50% chance Krylov vs Spann is a bit of a grind. Both guys are vulnerable and dangerous, but this fight being extended for more than 7.5 minutes is being underpriced, imo. If that is the case it is most likely Krylov grinding it out, and if THAT is the case, Krylov DEC will look like +EV at +600.
Said Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista are both very good fighters, fighting solid underappreciated fighters. Both are being set up to shine and come away with a finish. Nurmagomedov will have a solid grappling advantage, if he chooses to wrestle the sub could present itself. And Mario is getting so good so quick, and Guido is like 55.
Volkov can have some solid TDD, but when he is in a fight where he can’t stop the takedown, he has troubles. And Romanov has some of the best wrestling in the division. Romanov has some vulternabilties, he gassed in his last fight whereas Volkov has plenty of experience going 3 rounds in the UFC. But Romanov gassed after blowing his load in 10-8 beating, and then struggled keeping pace at altitude. That altitude is no joke, every fighter was laboured if they got extended more than a round. I am not going to hold that against him, and I am happy to back the fighter still trending up with a clear path to victory.
I am mostly avoiding the main event. I can’t get a confident read in this one. Yan should have the grappling to neutralize Merab’s but Yan’s skid concerns me. And in his last fight against Sterling he was controlled for large portions of the fight. Merab is not Sterling, but he is close! They are legit BFFs and close training partners. This camp has had success against Yan. And Merab is on an absolute tear, both guys could be finding new levels here. Yan going down, and Merab heading up. We will find out!