FULL UFC 285
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UFC 285 is filled with some of the best talent in MMA, and at 285 we will see high level talent at every stage of a UFC career. Bo Nickal making his debut, Shavkat looking to become a title contender, Garbrandt trying to remain relevant, Jones cementing his legacy as the GOAT. Throughout the whole card, there is some really fun and serious talent in important fights.
Ricci’s implied win probability is roughly 75%, which means after the vig Penne’s win prob is close to 30%! Ricci seems like solid value here. She is a 28 year old life long martial artist entering her prime. Penne is 40 years old and needs to grapple to win her fights, and when she has issues taking it to the ground she has difficulty doing enough to win. Ricci is a far more decorated grappler, she the much better athlete, and will have a fairly wide advantage when they grapple. At worst, they are even on the feet, but Ricci is a Muay Thai black belt and with that athleticism comes power. Feel good having her in my topline, and taking a relatively sizeable bet on her via ITD.
DDP is good, he is young and strong, and someone with really good momentum, but Brunson has a style that can steal fights. If Brunson’s chin can take him through the fight, his wrestling and high level experience could steal 2 rounds. Think he is a solid +EV play here.
We are witnessing history with Bo. Enjoy it.
Ok – Gamrot vs Turner. This would be a good example of a Hardcore Fans Main Event. Such an intriguing and high level fight. Tuner seems to be quickly becoming the lightweight darkhorse, winning 5 straight fights via finish all within 2 rounds. However, Gamrot is a new level of opponent. A new level of opponent with a style that will be difficult for Turner to deal with. Before I go further, Tuner is good and dangerous. You need to be careful having conviction fading dangerous fighters on winning streaks. With all that being said, Gamrot is a championship caliber fighter, who is one of the best wrestlers in the division. Turner has shown a vulnerability to wrestlers, he was taken down fairly easy by Jamie Mullarkey and his last lost came to Matt Frevola in a fight where he was taken down 4 times. I have spread my risk away from this fight a bit, but playing the ITD with Gamrot to add to my conviction. Think he eventually breaks Turner on the ground.
Neal vs Shavkat is interesting. Really interesting. This is an interesting test for one of the sports best prospects in Shavkat Rakhmonov. Neal has some solid TDD, and real crisp striking that could test Shavkat if he doesn’t get this to the ground easily. Shavkat is capable on the feet, but Neal is a new test. I am playing both sides, using the big favourite to juice up some parlays late, but also hedging those lines with a line that seems to be good +EV in Neal ITD.
Valentina should be the more versatile striker, and worst case if Grasso’s boxing is too much, Valentina will be more than able to take this to the ground.
There are many questions surrounding Jon Jones. But from a capping perspective – can you really fade the GOAT that has a clear PTV with his wrestling – as he has stated many times. Can you trust a guy gone for 3 years who arguably lost his two last fights against fighters who are 1-8 since? Typically, regardless of the style matchup, I put a lot of weight on what they have proven in their fights. And Jon has proven to be one of the best ever!! But more recently, he has only shown lackluster performances. I am putting more weight in his entire body of work, but I am being careful. He has not looked good in his recent fights. That means something.