FULL UFC Vegas 68
LOCKED IN
Title
Description
This card is just so bleh. If it was happening in Korea/Asia, it would hit different. It seems, one of the issues was not being able to lockdown a fight for Korean Zombie, who may still be injured. So instead, they are going to have 13 asian fighters fight in the Apex in the middle of the night. And of course its topped on by some mid HW fight. But UFC events feel so few and far between these days! So I will enjoy it.
I also think there are some interesting prospects who could emerge from this Road to the UFC. I wasn’t really paying attention, but a few of these guys might be worth following.
Looking back, the best fighter on this card might be Tatsuro Taira. This kid might be one of the best prospects in the underrated flyweight division. He is currently priced upwards of -1400, and that is a tough price to pay in MMA, but his true winning probability is pretty close to that.
I like Jun Yong Park in this fight vs Denis Tiuliulin. And I still like him at -200. -200 implies Park wins this fight 2 out of 3 times, but on the comeback, Denis at +160 implies that he wins this nearly 4 out of 10 times. In 2019 when Park was making his debut in the UFC, Denis was beating a fighter with an 0-11 record via TKO in the 2nd round.. Park is far from a world beater, and he will rarely blow the breaks off anyone. But at this point he is a fairly seasoned UFC vet, amassing a respectable record of 5-2. Park is a calculated fighter who can win fights on the feet and with grappling, but he typically wins with his pace and pressure that neutralizes his opponents. This is a great matchup for Park to utilize those skills. Denis’ PTV is hurting Park on the feet, so then it becomes a question of Parks chin/Denis’ power early. Denis has some TKOs on his record, but Park is no slouch on the feet, and he has experience against fighters with power. I put Parks winning probability upwards of 80%, happy to have him in my topline for this one.
This 125 pound Road to the UFC final is interesting. Hyun Sung Park looks like an explosive athlete, and he will have an interesting fight on his hands here. I think his power and grappling will eventually lead to a finish in this one, and he might establish himself as someone to watch in the coming years.
Rinya looks more like a bonafide prospect. Some of these guys will need some time as true pros before we know. But Rinya Nakamura has experience as a high level wrestler and who has developed a very dangerous stand up game. I am looking forward to seeing him grow over the years.
The biggest wild card prospect on this card – IMO – is Jeong Yeong Lee. We just don’t know enough, but he looks like he could also be an explosive and dangerous prospect. He won both his fights to get to the finals in under a minute, and he did it via sub and KO! Right now, it feels like his potential floor and ceiling is so wide. He looked legit! But just can’t be sure yet how good he is. I will be backing him here though. Like him high in the PRP, and will sprinkle ITD.
I am not sure Yusaku Kinoshita has as a high of a ceiling as some other young asian fighters on this card, but he should be fun and should have a willing dance partner in Adam Fugitt. Fugitt is limited, but he is tough, he could grind it out for a bit. But both these guys will be looking to hurt each other, will be surprised to see the scorecards.
Doo Ho Choi is back! One of the most loveable fighters in recent memory makes his long awaited return to the octagon. The Korean Superboy won fans over with his warm demeanor and cold fighting style. It is hard to know just how good Doo Ho Choi is after being off for so long, but when he was fighting, he was fighting a much higher level of opponent then he will on Saturday. Korean Superboy should be the fave, but DNGTD is the wider play here.
Tybura vs Ivanov could be a slow and long fight, or it could be over in a minute, it is HW MMA. Did you know Ivanov is young than Tybura!? I did not. But overall, I think Tybura is the better and more well rounded fighter. Think he is the side at -140.
And the perfect main event for the Apex, Two Top 10 UFC Heavyweights™️. We all love Derrick Lewis, but he has lost 3 of his last 4, and the real stakes to this fight are determining if he has still got it. Lewis is an enigma, and he’s always dangerous, but I am backing the young hungry fighter with the more versatile game. In the small cage, Spivac will have plenty of opportunities to close the distance and make it difficult for Lewis to land a big punch. Lewis can be hard to keep down, but the over 1.5 rounds is priced at an implied probability of 48.78%, and I like the likelihood this fight is a grind more often than it is a quick finish. But it is HW, so need to be cautious. I like the value on the Spivac winning late or by DEC, but as long as it goes over 7.5 minutes I profit on the read that this fight could be a bit of a grind.