FULL UFC Vegas 66
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Last card of the year! And I am pissed that its happening at the APEX. There are some real compelling matchups on this card, and it deserves to feel like a big event. But regardless, I will enjoy it! Because it is the last card for 4 weeks.. It is going to be hell! So I am going to appreciate looking forward to an event.
Betting with some strong conviction this event. I had room to maneuver to keep the top line of the PRP to two fights, but I feel good about the EV and the 3 fighters. And this is a much bigger PRP than usual, so I would like to assure I still cash a solid profit if I only get my strongest conviction picks right. But I can still pay for extra lines of the PRP, and the total units at risk is similar to other events. So an extra juicy top line made sense this time around. We’ll see how it looks in hindsight.
Rinat should at worst be able to grapple his way to taking two rounds. Battle will be a danger on the feet, but he does not typically have fight ending KO power. And the gap between the striking is much closer than the gap in their grappling. Rinat is good value here.
This fight will most likely play out on the feet, and Kape is the more experienced, dangerous and polished striker.
Albazi taking this favourable matchup on short notice makes him the rightful favourite. Costa will be dangerous, but Albazi is the real deal. Should be an easy day for him.
Michal may get taken down a few times early in the fight, and Brundage will be dangerous early. But Michal’s pace will eventually be too much for Brundage who has displayed a very limited gas tank and ability in general.
Jake Matthews has been around for a long time, but is still coming into his prime. He looks to be someone who is turning a corner, and he is in a favorable matchup in this one. Better striker and will be able to take this to the ground if needed. He worries a little me if this goes late, but the gap between these two will be big enough where I don’t think that will be a factor.
Erosa and Caceres are similar in many ways. Long lankey strikers who love to grapple and throw out subs. But Erosa has proved to be more dangerous against better competition as of late. And he looked incredible his last time out.
Said vs Said is an amazing fight. But Nurmagomedov has fought and beat the much better competition and has the more well rounded game. Kakhramonov will want to establish the same wrestle heavy game that won him his last fight, but Nurmagomedov has an ability to grapple and there will be a bigger gap in their striking. Nurmagomedov’s size will also be tough to handle. He is good value at these prices.
Damir is good value. He has really solid defensive grappling, and will be much better at finding his striking range than Armen. Happy to back him at plus money.
McKenna may end up a step behind to the faster athlete and better striker. But if she makes this dirty, and if she can get this to the ground she will look like good value. And if she does get the chance to establish a top game, the sub or g&p finish could be there.
Strickland can overwhelm his opponents with volume and his walk forward style, but this will play right into Jareds power and counter striking. Over the course of 25 minutes I like Jareds chances of finding Seans chin, or making enough of an impact to take some rounds. And not to mention, I trust Jared. Sean is a weirdo and a wildcard, he is much harder to trust.