FULL UFC 282
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This isn’t the typical star studded UFC PPV. I think the UFC’s goal was to get Jon Jones on this card, but that didn’t happen. So we settled for Jiri vs Glover 2, which isn’t even happening anymore after one of Jiri’s cornermen Tj Dillashaw’d Jiri’s shoulder. But there is a different type of star power on this card. This card is filled with budding stars, waiting to break out. Or stars that are at risk of dying out before they reached their full potential.
This card has some crazy vibes and it has been challenging to find solid reads. Many of the favourites are unproven or even on losing streaks! And many others are unpredictable and in tough fights against live dogs. Lot of “value traps” out there. This card really tested my discipline, so ended up betting a little light. I tried to maximize the EV of some of the reads I felt better about. But this will be an interesting one to revisit after the fact.
I am itching to fade Paddy. And that has nothing to do with the Ariel situation, I just believe he has a ceiling, and he is going to hit it pretty quick in the UFCs 155 pound division. Jared is tough, but this is a bad matchup against Paddy. Paddy will be quicker on the feet, and he should control Jared fairly easily on the ground. Don’t think Paddy’s momentum is stalled just yet. But it’s coming soon.
I like Darren here. He is one of those stars that is at risk of never realizing his full potential, but Darren is still young. He is still hungry, and he seems to be in great spirits this week. Those pre-fight interviews only mean so much, what they have actually been able to do in the cage means much more. And despite Tills losing streak, he nearly KO’d Brunson before getting sub’d, and was in a competitive fight with Robert Whittaker. And DDP has many natural gifts, he has great momentum and confidence right now. But his striking fits perfectly into Till’s counter striking game. I believe Till proves there are levels to this, and he is still someone who is in that upper tier.
We are about to enter the Ankalaev era. This guy is the real deal. He has crisp disciplined striking, and the ability to take this to the ground which will take away Jans power and key to winning. He was the easy choice for the top line, and if this plays out on the ground that sub prop will be good value.
Billy Q – I think his pressure will eventually be too much for Alex. Alex is much better being the hammer than the nail, and Billy Q is the guy that will keep you on your back foot all fight. Billy Qs jab and leg kick will be a problem for Alex all fight. However, Alex looked fantastic weighing in at 145 and could be the much more physical fighter in this contest. Which will favour Alex as he will be level changing and threatening from the feet and the mat. Plus he has real fight ending power. Tough fight to call.
Buckley – I think he is the far more polished and versatile striker, and has a greater willingness to mix it up with takedowns. It also appears that Buckley is improving at a greater rate than Curtis. But Curtis is so dangerous, and Buckley is maybe improving, but he is definitely a wild card.
My read is these two should be the faves, but the conviction is low.
I had Rosas Jr in my parlays, but I took him out. Couldn’t have a teenager in my parlays. I like him, and he looks to be a real serious athlete. But he is GREEN, he is still in high school! And his level of experience is very limited, he has only fought two fighters with a winning record. And the second was on his DWCS bout that he won by decision. He won, but he looked sloppy. Aggressive and athletic, but sloppy/green. Perrin is a great first matchup in the UFC, he is a fairly limited athlete and fighter, but has been in there with some solid competition. There are no easy fights at 135 in the UFC, so we will know pretty soon how real this kid is at this age. I like him, but far too unproven to back him.