FULL UFC Orlando
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Alright, I like this card a lot. It is a lot of fun, and I feel great about some of these lines. UFC Orlando will end up being the most units I have bet on any card.

Istela Nunes has some pretty high level experience, and was a high level Muay Thai competitor. She’s fought and beat some good pros in ONEFC, and in her two UFC fights she showed well, especially on the feet; where this fight is mostly likely to take place. Her opponent does not have the same level of experience, so if this is a stand up battle, Nunes is a good bet at +250. Small flier in general, and smallest bet of the card on her by TKO as well.

Marshall is the favourite vs Rojo, but he is GREEN. Really green. But he is an young hungry fighter who will get better quick. And he will have the pace of a young strong athlete. That alone can take you far in low level MMA. But, green is green and this is the UFC. Rojo is a borderline UFC himself, but he could be dangerous. Worth another small flier. Also playing the fight ending in my prop PRP.

Ok, I like Rowe a lot here. He looks like someone who is rounding a corner, he has a ton of natural abilities, and he is huge. Evidenced by the fact that he missed weight, again. It is concerning when a fighter you’re backing misses weight, but part of the read here is his size and strength. He didn’t look too bad weighing in. He is just massive. Happy to back him at these prices.

What am I missing here with the Tai – Pavlovich fight? At worst, this is a 50/50 brawl. Tai has done well for himself as of late. Showed to be more than a meme brawler, had a good competitive scrap with Gane. There are many reasons Tai could be an underdog against a 16-1 30 year old, but Pavlovich isn’t much more than a power puncher like Tai. He had two failed takedown attempts in his UFC debut, but hasn’t even tried another one since. And his striking is not particularly polished. So once again, I go back to a 50/50 brawl, at worst. At best Tai is the better and more experienced fighter in this brawl.

The main. Another one. What am I missing here? I get that Holland is the younger and more active fighter. Which means he could be faster, stronger, fresher. And Holland has the ground game to mix it up with Wonderboy! But Holland is not known for his wrestling. His last takedown was 5 fights ago, against Derek Brunson. And in the last 10 fights he has a total of 3 takedowns, and the other 2 were against Charlie Ontiveros, who was a little out of his depth physically in that fight. So if a large portion of the fight ends up being on the feet, how does Wonderboy not run away with it? This is Wonderboys world! One fighter in basically his entire life has found his chin. If this fight ends up taking place mostly on the feet, Wonderboy as a dog will look like a great line.

Put Levy in my top line. He does not exactly meet the “good” or proven fighter criteria, but he is close. I think worst case he is a solid UFC guy. Whereas Valdez does appear to be close to that level. The style matchup favours Levy as well. He will have the counter striking and ability to manage distance to be safe on the feet, and his willingness to grapple should give him an easy PTV.

JSP and RDA both will have the striking to be at least even, if not better. But the grappling will be a big difference in both fights. Elkins especially is easy to fade. He looks to be on his last legs, and will have a hard time with the grappling and pace of JSP.