FULL UFC Vegas 61
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I like this Super Secret Apex show from a betting perspective. Which is good, because there isn’t much else to like. But it feels like forever since we’ve had UFC fights, so I won’t complain..

I am riding Guido/fading Costa. Guido is old AF, and does not have a great record. Regardless of the matchup, it is hard to have too much conviction in someone like Guido Cannetti. But – I like the value here. Guido has faced much better competition, and does have some dangerous striking. There is a better than 15% chance that he catches Costa, who has lost his last two fights via TKO.

Riding another boomer in Aleksei Oleinik. Using him as a hedge, and a bit of a supplement to my parlays. He has a good matchup here. Latifi is no spring chicken himself, and he has not won a fight since 2018 (he absolutely did not beat Boser), and most of his success in the UFC has come at 205, and he will have a tough time utilizing his grappling against the dangerous Oleinik. I got a little aggressive with Oleinik, but it can be a high reward move, and if the other lines in the parlay cash I still have a good night. Will be interesting to evaluate this after the event. I may have galaxy brained this one.

I like Randy Brown and his physicality in this one. He has been looking much better in this recent run, whereas Trinaldo has been showing his age. Big divergence in momentum here. But Trinaldo has still proven to be tough to finish, so like the value on the Brown DEC line.

I think Mike Davis has potential to be a serious threat at 155. And by serious threat, I mean someone who will beat most who do not belong. He could be a top 15 or so, but that division is tough. I do not feel the same about SlavaClaus. I thought we might have something in him, but he was exposed by Diakiese. I do not think he will be in the UFC for too long.

Dern and her grappling in the small cage should prove to be the difference. Putting a small flier on her by decision. The sub is her best bet, and I will be happy with any win. But like the value on the DEC prop.