FULL UFC 279
LOCKED IN

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Oh, boy. Take a deep breath. We did it. We got here, UFC 279 is a few hours away and the card looks a little different than it did a day ago. But it somehow feels bigger now. Somehow, the MMA gods found a way to make Tony vs Nate happen. Almost like it’s the opposite of Tony vs Khabib. The universe used its forces for good! And we will enjoy it.

And amongst all the commotion I ended up breaking my record for units bet! Getting to a clean 30. I typically like to keep it to 25 or less, with a emphasis on less as of late. But I like some reads on this one, and it feels right to get a little crazy with this one.

Heili Alateng – I have a decent amount riding on him. He can lose and I can still have a good night. But a win from him early could set me up for a big night. I think he is far more versatile, and has more experience against better competition. He also has the footwork and defensive striking to avoid Anheliger’s big punch. I am putting a flier on him wrestling, as that is his easiest PTV, and locking in a sub. Wouldn’t usually put this much on a guy that is high up on my parlay, but like the value here, and he can act as a hedge against my top line if it busts.

Danyelle Wolf – like this one I like alot. Sizeable bet considering the odds. She is a far better athlete, and has some serious power.
Often in MMA, experience will be the difference between two close competitors. But other times, there is a major mismatch in athleticism. And experience becomes redundant. Extreme example – Brock Lesnar. It did not matter that Heath Herring had been a high level pro for nearly a decade. Brock Lesnar is a different type of person, who has achieved a high pedigree in a sport that translate well to MMA. And I think we are in a similar situation here with Danyelle Wolf. She is a serious athlete, and was a high level boxer. And she is big. I think at worst, this fight looks like a coin flip and this line looks like a steal. But I think she could starch Dumont and hurt her bad. Wolf is a big athletic women who is going to be hard to takedown. Then the gap on the feet will play out.

I think both Collier and Cutelaba could grind their way to decisions. And like Collier at +1100 to finish a tired Barnett late.

I like Jingliang and his momentum here. He looked great against his last two opponents who weren’t freak wrestlers from Chechnya. And both his last two opponents were really solid stand up fighters, and The Leech stopped them.

Khamzat by sub is the better value. small flier. He is in my top line, so any win I will be happy.

I like Aldana a lot. She is great value at that price, makes the top line work well. I could see her stopping the fight, but she should do enough damage to take two rounds at the least.

Also – NDA mother friggers. This is a winnable fight. He has spent more time at this weight recently. And I just want to be backing him tbh. He could cash the final leg of a 73-1 parlay, and I have a tiny ML play on him. Just some fun.

But if your looking to take this fight serious from a betting perspective, I’d like to make a recommendation – don’t. Both these guys are wild cards. It is hard to back Tony since has barely won a round since he dropped Justin Gaethje at the end of round 1 of their fight. And Nate is in a similar boat, winning one fight since tapping Conor out at UFC 196. But at least he’s had some good moments.