Straight Bets

Ho Kang is fantastic value here. He is an under appreciated fighter in the UFC, and a tough style matchup for Danaa. Ho Kang has the striking to avoid Danaa’s power, and the wrestling to control where the fight takes place.

This line feels like a good example of hype influencing the line, opposed to the abilities of either competitor. There is always a blend of both, hype and abilities, that make the lines. But it seems that it is Dana’s new favourite fighter getting all the attention. And it makes sense, Andre Fialho is coming off two big KO wins and is making a quick turn around appearing on two consecutive PPVs. Whereas it has been over a year since Jake Matthews has appeared in the octagon.

But despite the year long layoff, it is the 27 year old Matthews that is the far more experienced fighter in the UFC. Matthews debuted in the UFC in 2014!! And he has fought some of the best over that time span. Including 9th rank Sean Brady in his last time out.

Matthews has the striking to hang with Fialho on the feet, and has shown an ability win fights with takedowns when his opponents clear path to victory was on the feet.

Like the more well rounded, and UFC tested Matthews in this one at plus money.

This is a bit of a hedge. And taking advantage of a line that is mispriced for a live dog.

Santos is good. But it is hard to bet against one of the best fighters to ever compete in MMA. I’ll have Valentina in some parlays, but I do not love her at -650.

Santos could make this a fight. She is one of the first fighters Valentina has faced that has the physicality and athleticism to keep up. And Santos has a well rounded skill set, she will be capable grappling and standing. Santos has some real power on the feet, and her physicality makes her a very effective grappler. But Santos’ best case scenario is most likely taking some rounds and squeaking out a decision. She only has one finish in the UFC, and Valentina is unlikely to be the second.

This fight is interesting. I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

I like Glover a lot in this fight. Especially like him as the dog.

Jiri is younger, he is faster, he has the momentum, and it is hard to know where his ceiling is. Typically in these situations I find it best to avoid the unknown – especially when the opponent is like 50 years old.

When you look at this fight on paper, it makes sense Jiri is the favourite. But – the style matchup makes Glover an appealing bet.

This fight is billed as a classic striker vs grappler matchup, and while it is, Glover is no slouch on the feet. He keeps a high guard and can keep you on the back foot with his power and technical boxing. He has hurt guys on the feet many times! In his last fight, he hurt Jan in the 2nd round with a big shot before he took it to the ground and locked in the sub. And Jiri fights like a mad man, he puts himself in danger to land his strikes and has been on wobbly legs in both of his UFC fights because of this. Do not be surprised to see Glover hurt Jiri standing.

Then we have the very real gap that exists in grappling. While Jiri is being that mad man we all love, when he gets close he is often standing straight up, just waiting to be tipped over. Reyes did this in their fight quite easily, he was just too gassed after that first takedown to do it again and was basically a sitting duck. Glover should have no problem landing that takedown, and keeping it there.

Now, the X-factor here is the conditioning of both these fighters, assuming it even becomes a factor at all and the fight isn’t over early. If Jiri is able to stay fresh and evade Glover, his speed and volume could overwhelm the older fighter.

However, Jiri’s pace has seemed to change towards the end of the 1st round in both his UFC fights. Glover has plenty of experience to be comfortable with a longer fight – so I wouldn’t be so quick to give the younger fighter the conditioning advantage. And while Jiri is on a 12 fight win streak, his level of competition over those fights is suspect. His 3 fights before the UFC were against opponents who have not had any notable wins in more than 5 years. And his two UFC wins were favourable matchups, that almost resulted in him getting KO’d.

Overall, I am just not sold on Jiri. Jiri could be the fresher and faster fighter, but there is more evidence he has a difficult stylestic matchup on his hands.

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Main Parlay

After a chalky fight night, we got a tighter set of matchups for UFC 275. But we kick off the parlay with two of my favourite favourites!

Allen: Malkoun has won his two UFC fights chain wrestling and beating opponents who were too gassed to muster any sort of response. But Brendan Allen is a completely different level of fighter, and athlete. He won’t gas out, and he is a fantastic grappler.

Woo Choi: I am high on Woo Choi. Woo Choi has some really technical and powerful striking, and he is someone to keep an eye on if he can figure out how to defend a RNC. Woo Choi has a favourable style matchup against the fellow striker, Joshua Culibao. Josh has not fought or beat nearly the same competition as Woo Choi, and Woo Choi will be the more physically gifted fighter. Worst case, Woo Choi should be able to take two rounds.

Adding Zhang and Shevchenko!

Zhang: Zhang has been the more active fighter, so she has had more opportunities to evolve her game. And she displayed some of that evolution in her last fight against Rose mixing in the takedowns. So there is potential she does that again if she needs too.

And we can all theorize if the layoff is good or bad for Joanna, but typically – not fighting for more than 2 years is a bad thing.

Zhang won the last one, she looks fantastic, she loves fighting in Asia, she seems to be more focused on the title and fighting in general. Basically – I have found a lot of reasons to talk myself into riding Zhang. She will be an important piece to my plays for this event.

Shevchenko: I am still picking Shevchenko, she is near the top of my parlay’s. But I do think Santos could be dangerous. And by dangerous, I mean take a round or two. I have a hard time seeing Santos taking her out unless Shevchenko is sick or something.

Adding in two of my favourite dog picks. Ho Kang and Matthews.

Last piece of the main parlay! Close it out, Glover!

FULL Main Parlay

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Hedge Parlay

First leg of the hedge parlay! Adding some extra coin on Zhang, and playing the over to get a better price on my read for Santos vs Shevchenko, which is that it will be at least competitive.

Throwing in my two dog picks to juice up the hedge parlay odds, and add more stakes to these two reads because I do feel confident in them. And definitely confident in the value.

FULL Hedge Parlay

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O/U Parlay

A chalk O/U parlay.

Maddalena vs Emeev: Emeev has never been KO’d, and Maddalena went the distance in his first fight outside the regional scene. Maddalena is dangerous, but Emeev will be tough to finish.

Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk: I like Zhang in this one, but I find it hard to believe she gets it done in under 1.5 rounds.

Shevchenko vs Santos: I like this value at -220, I do not think Santos will be a walkover. She might even be able to take a round or two! I am still on Shevchenko, but we should get 2.5 rounds out of this fight.

Adding two more.

Teixeira vs Prochazka: Already have a good amount on Glover ITD, but it is unlikely that this goes long. In the last 5 years, Jiri has one fight that has gone more than 10 minutes, and that one still ended in round 3. And on Glovers 6 fight run to the title, only one fight went the distance.

Fialho vs Matthews: Fialho loves the first round KO, but Matthews has skills on the feet, and has never been TKO’d on the feet. I also think Matthews wrestles early. I like this one going more than 1.5 rounds

FULL O/U Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC 275
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