Straight Bets

I like the dog line here. Rinat is the UFC new comer, and it can be hard to know just how good some newcomers are. But from what we do know, he looks to be a wild/sloppy striker and has not faced any high level competition. But he is the heavy favourite..

Rinat is riding the waive of a big knockout on Dana’s looking for a fight against a former UFC fighter, Eric Spicely. But that still does not tell us much. Spicely is 2-7 in his last nine and he just lost in 90 seconds to a fighter with a record of 5-4.

Andreas is far from a world beater, and his previous losses have come via TKO, but this also means he has a clear path to victory. Take Rinat down and grind him. And if he lands the takedown, like he has in his last two UFC fights, the +1400 sub prop will be in play.

I am happy to play this dog line in a very chalky event otherwise.

Another UFC newcomer fade. I was not overly impressed with Silva in her DWCS fight, she looked to be on her way to losing a decision before locking in the sub.

These two have a similar style, and we could see them trade on the feet, but I think we see Botelho mix it up as Silva did not display much in the way of takedown defence in her last fight.

The fight is close, so taking the fighter with more high level experience at plus money.

I like Jairzinho in this fight. Happy to bet him at plus money here. Jairzinho has the high level kickboxing experience and will have 25 minutes to get inside and land a big punch. And if it doesn’t ultimately end in a KO (seems unlikely), he will be more likely to take the rounds with more damage.

Don’t love the line for a finish, so just playing it safe with a ML bet.

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Main Parlay

Alright, its a chalky event! I really liked Jackson and Evloev when they were both around -200, its a bummer to not get them in this parlay before the lines blew up, but its one of the trade offs for my process, and it is something I will continue to evaluate!

But all 3 should (hopefully) have similar paths to victory with their heavy grapple approach in the small cage.

Adding in Trizano and Menifield!

Trizano is a really solid UFC featherweight, he has clean striking and solid grappling. His opponent has never faced anyone nearly as good, and the style matchup favours Trizano.

This Menifield – Mozharov fight is strange. The shenanigans surrounding Mozharovs record is one of the weirdest things to happen with a UFC newcomer in a long time. If you did your tape study, you would have felt that something was off. It is hard to know exactly what is going on. But it all should lead to the same conclusion – Mozharov is a questionable professional fighter.

Alright, Ode and Jeff are the last main components to my parlay plays this week!

I see some chatter on gambling Twitter about fading either of them, but I just don’t see it.

I like Jeff and Ode a lot in these fights. The reads for both fights are similar. Even the lines are basically the same!

Both their opponents like to come forward with strikes, and Jeff and Ode have both shown an ability to counter strike very effectively. They are both the more dynamic and dangerous fighters. And both have the higher ceilings. They may not be able to take their opponents out, but I expect these lines to look generous in hindsight.

Alright getting into the juicy long shot territory!

Adding Rozenstruik and Gravely.

I see many picking Munoz Jr, and his high level grappling is tempting against a wrestler like Gravely. But the other side of that BJJ vs wrestling matchup is the difficulty Munoz will have in taking the fight to the ground. Gravely – who is a lifelong TKD practitioner – could use his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet where he should have a clear advantage over 15 minutes. Then maybe he can use his wrestling offensively late in the fight once a sub will be harder for Munoz to catch. Small stakes, but curious how this read looks in hindsight.

Last leg of the full parlay!! Adding a couple dogs I like.

FULL Main Parlay

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Hedge Parlay

First leg of the hedge parlay!

Second leg of the hedge parlay!

Last leg of the hedge parlay!

FULL Hedge Parlay

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Prop Parlay

Parlaying up two of my highest conviction ITD plays!

Adding Blanchfield to finish to make it extra juicy! JJ is tough, but Blanchfield looks to be the real deal, and she has been really close to finishing her last couple fights. Without actual evidence of being able to finish UFC fights, its hard to have too much conviction in Blanchfield finishing, but there is value in this line. So want to play it a bit.

FULL Prop Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week! We almost hit last week!! We’ll get it one of these days.
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC VEGAS 56
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