Journey Newson ML +125 (44.44%) – 1.5u
Journey Newson TKO +600 (14.29%) – .75u

This will be boxer vs boxer, and I believe Journey to be the better boxer. He also has more experience and looks to be a better athlete. Like this line, and the TKO line is way off. Had to put some extra units on it.

Melissa Gatto ITD +350 (22.22%) – .75u
Melissa Gatto RD 3 +1600 (5.88%) -.25u

Throwing a dart here. And also breaking one of my rules. Tracy Cortez is a solid chain wrestler, and Gatto has showed some weakness to this style of fighter. This clash of styles can easily result in the wrestler taking 2 rounds, especially in a women’s fight where finishes are rare. So it is a general rule of my mine to avoid these if I don’t like the chain wrestler.

But – the reason I am throwing a dart, is I think Gatto is the better athlete, and the more dangerous fighter. And if I’m right, the way this most likely looks is Gatto overwhelming a tired Cortez late and taking her out. So taking a chance.

Brandon Royval TKO +400 (20.00%) – .75u

Ok, I was not sure what to do with this fight. I like Royval, he is dangerous everywhere a fight can go. But Schnell is good, and the line isn’t reflecting that. However – there is value to be had in this TKO line. +400 is way off. Every opponent Royval has faced has tried to wrestle him. And look at some of those opponents! Kai Kara-France, the champ Brandon Moreno! Both stood with Brandon and decided they were better off grappling.

Also, Royval and Schnell have some common opponents. Schnell got hurt and KO’d by Bontorin and Pantoja, while both those guys wanted to grapple with Royval. Royval has more subs on his record, but that does not reflect the reality of what he is capable of. Schnell has proved to be a little chinny, and has only landed a handful of takedowns in his UFC career. They’re both solid grapplers, but there is a big gap on the feet. Like this line a lot.

Randy Brown ML EVEN (50.00%) – 1.5u

I like Randy Browns speed and versatility here. Khaos has the big punch, but the hope is that Brown knows to avoid that and can mix it up. Randy Brown also looks like he is getting better really fast. Like him here at even money.

Donald Cerrone TKO +210 (32.26%) – 1u

Ok, I am breaking another one of my rules. And banking on Cerrone being better based on what he is saying, not what he has done. But I think we know Cerrone well enough to get a sense of where his head is at. And he looks to be in a great place mentally. And this is a good matchup for him, Cowboy is solid on the ground, and should have the advantage on the feet. I have a good feeling about Cowboy here, I don’t usually bet based on “feeling” but like this bet.

Chandler vs Ferguson OVER 1.5 -170 (62.96%) – 1u
Michael Chandler DEC +225 (20.00%) – .5u

This is a hard one to read. Tony is a wild card. And it is hard to not let the emotional investment we all have in him affect our judgment. We want to believe Tony can be better, and the time away will help him. But Tony looked like a fighter whose best days are behind him in his recent fights. But, he has still been hard to finish. Chandler could starch him in a few minutes, and I’ll happily add the win to my parlays, but that seems unlikely. I could see this fight begin with both fighters feeling each other out, and the Chandler by decision line feels like good value here.

Rose Namajunas TKO +300 (25.00%) – .5u
Rose Namajunas RD 4 +1500 (6.25%) – .1u
Rose Namajunas RD 5 +2000 (4.76%) – .1u

Styles make fights, and Carla’s wrestle heavy approach is a tough style matchup for Rose. Which is part of the reason why this fight is so compelling. And throwing a flier on Carla via decision, or Carla via split decision is tempting. But I believe the value to be in this Rose via TKO, with some darts on winning the late rounds.

Carla is going to take Rose down, but Carla will need more than that to win the fight. In almost every other regard, Rose is the better fighter and athlete. Rose has the better fight IQ, she is much faster, she has the 5 round experience, and her striking is light years ahead. I could see Carla taking a round or two early with her wrestling before she the damage starts to add up. 5 rounds will be a long time for the gap in speed and striking to not become a difference maker. Be careful though, fading wrestlers is always tough.

Oliveira vs Gaethje UNDER 2.5 -165 (62.26%) – 2.5u

The weight miss from Charles threw a wrench in my plans. I was going back and forth, but began to lean towards Charles. The gap on the feet is not as wide as some would believe, and while Gaethje is a solid wrestler, he is not a great grappler. Even if Charles can’t take him down with a double leg, he will find ways to grab a hold and work his BJJ.

But the weight miss makes him hard to bet on, and not just because of the actual miss. It is all the shenanigans that surrounded it. Having to go back and weight cut, but still miss. It all has to mess with your mind.

Just making the safe and easy bet and betting the under 2.5.

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler PARLAY -105 (51.22%) – 6u

First leg of the main parlay. I am a little worried about Chandler. But that may be my love for Tony speaking.

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler – Royval – Namajunas PARLAY +298 (25.13%) – 3u

Next leg. Fairly solid sized bet.

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler – Royval – Namajunas – Newson – Brown PARLAY +1569 (5.99%) – 1.5u

Adding two more to the chain!!

Rodrigues – Fialho – Chandler – Royval – Namajunas – Newson – Brown – Gatto – Cerrone PARLAY +5555 (1.77%) – 1u

Last leg of the main chain!!

Royval – Namajunas PARLAY +104 (49.02%) – 3u

Hedging with a small side chain parlay!

Royval – Namajunas – Newson – Brown PARLAY +755 (11.70%) – 1.5u

Last leg of the side hedge chain!

Rodrigues ITD – Fialho ITD PARLAY +265 (27.40%) – 1.5u

Two of my favourites to finish parlayed up.

Rodrigues ITD – Fialho ITD – Royval ITD – Namajunas ITD PARLAY +1815 (5.22%) – 1u

Adding a two more favourites to finish!

Newson ITD – Rodrigues ITD – Royval ITD – Cerrone TKO – Namajunas ITD – Fialho ITD PARLAY +28690 (0.35%) – .1u

The long shot this week! Good luck!!