Tatsuro Taira ITD +110 (47.62%) – 2u

I am high on Taira. He has some real skills, on the ground and on the feet. And he looks to be a serious athlete. He is fast and powerful.

Taira is only 22, and making the jump to the UFC is a big deal, but he does have experience against real guys. I expect Carlos to be much slower, and he does not have the fight ending skills Taira does on the feet or on the ground.

Gabriel Green ML -130 (56.52%) – 2u

Gabriel Green has proven himself to be a legitimate UFC fighter. Beating Philip Rowe will look very good in hindsight. Green has some power and clean technique on the feet, and the ability to take it to the ground if needed. He showed great fight IQ to take that win in his last fight, those leg kicks won him that fight, and I think they will be a difference in this fight as well.

Yohan Lainesse will be slower, and the longer the fight goes, the harder it will be for him to remain dangerous. I am not sold he will be able to stick around.

Francisco Figueiredo ML +110 (47.62%) – 1u
Francisco Figueiredo ITD +275 (26.67%) -.5u

I think Francisco is much better than people are giving him credit for. He seems low volume on the feet, but he is fast and elusive. And he is a legit BJJ black belt!

Lacerda was aggressive in his UFC debut, and looked dangerous in the 1st round against a good opponent. But Molina was never truly in danger. And Lacerda has not proven he can beat a true high level professional, or even go 3 rounds. I am not sold.

Krzysztof Jotko DEC +190 (34.48%) – 1u

When someone shows you who they are, believe them. Jotko wins decisions point fighting on the outside. Betting he does that again. Like this line.

People love GM3, and he is on a good run. But the guys GM3 has been beating on this run are far less experienced than Jotko. And definitely far less skilled grappling.

Jotko will be very aware of where GM3 is dangerous and should be able to avoid the ground. GM3 being able to submit Jotko seems like a stretch, IMO. That requires a big gap in skills to actually land the sub. I don’t see it.

Dawson vs Gordon DRAW +5000 (1.96%) – .1u

I love trying to find a good spot to bet a draw. Draws are typically set at +6600*, and that is a probability of 1.49%. If you can try and pick your spots you get a lot of kicks at the can to be profitable.

Dawson fought to a draw in his last fight after having nothing left in the 3rd round. And Gordon has won the 3rd round in his last 3 fights, including a 10-8..

Low risk high reward. Asymmetrical bet. Love it.

*As I was typing this post it changed to +5000. Going to leave rest of what I wrote.

Andre Fili DEC +130 (43.48%) – .5u

Fili is another guy who wins a lot of decisions. Not overthinking it. Fili is the rightful favourite, Brito might not last the 15 minutes. But I’ll have Fili in some parlays, so I will be happy with a win either way.

Andrei Arlovski DEC +110 (1.49%) – .5u

Once again, if someone shows you who they are, believe them. If Arlovski doesn’t get taken out, he usually wins a decision. Betting on that outcome.

But I will say, the line is showing Jake Collier some respect for a reason. Don’t let that body trick you. He has some skills.

Marlon Vera ML +103 (49.26%) – 2u
Marlon Vera TKO +400 (20.00%) – 1u

Ok, I was originally going to avoid this fight! I thought it was too close. Too tough to find an edge.

But the more I watched their recent fights it really felt like there was value in Vera. Rob Font went the distance with Aldo, and has gone the distance in 5 of his last 6 fights. If Marlon can’t take him out, the ML bet becomes -200. I can live with that getting Marlon TKO at +400. Font going 5 rounds with Aldo is also kind of deceiving. Aldo was credited with 2 knockdowns, but Aldo hurt him a bunch. Aldo was being measured, as he has been recently. But it really felt like the finish was close a few times.

Rob Font is a solid boxer, and has the standup to beat really good UFC guys on the feet. But Vera is better. He is more dangerous and more versatile. And, Vera has actually been the more effective grappler in his recent fights. Vera has a bunch of subs on his record. Font has not shown that same level of effectiveness grappling in the UFC.

And even though Rob Font has more experience in 5 rounds fights, the longer fight favours Marlon Vera. Vera is one of the best examples of a fighter who gets better as the fight goes. Marlon had a flashy 3rd round front kick KO of Frankie in his last fight, but he broke Frankie before that. Marlon would not stop coming forward. And Font is a fairly similar to Edgar.

Then there is the true X factor – Momentum.
Font just took the worst beating of his career, in the the biggest fight of his career. He has lost before, but never in a fight with stakes that high. This deep into his career, finding out the gap is that big between him and the very best in the division, you have to wonder what that does to his confidence. Rob will be 35 in June, and has been a pro for more than 10 years. Can he catch up to a guy like Aldo? Who is basically the same age.

Missing weight was a bad sign. He is not a particularly big bantamweight. And he didn’t look overly confident in that faceoff with Vera after the weigh ins.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but Marlon Vera has fantastic momentum right now! He has never looked better! He ended his win against Davey Grant with a 10-8 round, and Davey Grant is solid! But then he front kicked KO’d the legend Frankie Edgar.

I like Vera a lot here. We’ll see if Font can find his form again!

Romanov – Taira – Fili PARLAY +113 (46.95%) – 4.5u

First leg of the parlay.

Romanov – Taira – Fili – Jotko – Arlovski PARLAY +459 (17.89%) – 2.5u

Next leg!

Romanov – Taira – Fili – Jotko – Arlovski – Green – Figueiredo PARLAY +2012 (4.73%) – 1.5u

Adding in Figueiredo instead of Vera to hedge my plays a bit. Have more on Vera in a ML bet and some parlays.

Romanov – Taira – Fili – Jotko – Arlovski – Green – Figueiredo – Vera PARLAY +4251 (2.30%) – 1u

Adding in Vera to finish the parlay!

Jotko – Green PARLAY +166 (37.59%) – 2u

Parlay hedge. Side chain.

Jotko – Green – Arlovski – Vera PARLAY +919 (9.81%) – .75u

Second leg of hedge parlay.

Jotko DEC – Taira ITD PARLAY +509 (16.42%) – 1.5u

Favourite value props parlayed up. Also a way to play these two together and hedge Arlovski a bit.

Jotko DEC – Taira ITD – Vera ITD PARLAY +1971 (4.83%) – .5u

Adding in Vera to this props favourites.

Taira ITD – Green ITD – Jotko DEC – Gordon v Dawson DRAW – Arlovski DEC – Vera ITD PARLAY +775402 (0.01%) – .1u

The long shot this week! We got another draw in there! So another big long shot this week.

Also, I got Gordon vs Dawson at +6600 in the parlay. Before I was able to make the straight bet it changed to +5000 =(
Good luck!!