UFC Vegas 52 – Bets

Aoriqileng – Else UNDER 2.5 -155 (60.78%) – 2.5u

Ok, this is sort of a hedge. I have Aoriqileng in some parlays, and I expect him to be good enough on the feet to close the gap and take Else down. If Aoriqileng grinds a decision I’ll be happy.

But Cameron Else has seen one 3rd round in his pro MMA career. All of his wins have come in the 1st round, if he wins he is catching Aoriqileng early.

But ideally, Aoriqileng is able to avoid the big punch, wear down Else and stop a tired fighter somewhere around the 2nd round.

Wright – Barriault UNDER 2.5 -155 (60.78%) – 1.5u

Similar reasons as the fight above. But Wright has never even seen a 3rd round! MAB could grind him out, but if Wright doesn’t KO him early he might have a tough time lasting.

Montana De La Rosa ML +154 (39.37%) – 3u
Montana De La Rosa ITD +500 (16.67%) -.5u

This line doesn’t make much sense to me. I’d assume it’s more about Barbers name recognition attracting more money from bettors. And Barber could keep De La Rosa on her back foot and overwhelm her with volume. But Barber has not been able to do that recently, and she is not exactly a world class striker. And De La Rosa is a massively underrated fighter in general, with a really tough style for Barber to deal with.

De La Rosa has been improving her striking with each fight, and her heavy wrestle style will a perfect answer to Barbers attempts to put her on her back foot.

If De La Rosa can put Barber on her back and keep her there, this line could look like a steal.

Lando Vannata ML -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

I like Lando’s experience and versatility here. Razor close fight on the feet, should be a competitive fight.

Jessica Andrade ITD +140 (41.67%) – 1.5u

Jessica Andrade should prove herself to be a different caliber of fighter. Lemos biggest threat will be early in the fight, but as the fight goes on Lemos’ chance to win the fight will diminish, and 25 minutes will be a long time for her to try and survive.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng PARLAY +115 (46.51%) – 3u

First leg of the parlay.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng – Vannata – De La Rosa PARLAY +958 (9.58%) – 1.5u

I went back and forth on this leg of the parlay, ultimately went with the two I believed were the best value.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng – De La Rosa – Vannata – Barriault – Grant PARLAY +3148 (3.08%) – .5u

Adding in two that I feel have a good chance against suspect competition. These two were to going to be in the previous leg, but neither of them are good enough to fully trust, regardless of their competition.

Romanov – Andrade – Aoriqileng – Vannata – De La Rosa – Barriault – Grant – Prachnio – Pedro PARLAY +6496 (1.52%) – .25u

Adding in Prachnio and Pedro to the last full parlay. I know Pedro is probably higher in some parlays, but he has been away for so long and the line is so crazy. Hard to trust.

Aoriqileng-Else U2.5 – Wright-Barriault U2.5 PARLAY +171 (36.90%) – 1.5u

Parlaying these two unders to add some leverage to the plays, as they can both also kind of act as hedges.

Aoriqileng ITD – Andrade ITD – De La Rosa ITD PARLAY +2780 (3.47%) – .25u

Taking some of my favourite value finish props and parlaying them up.

Aoriqileng ITD – Prachnio TKO – Andrade ITD – Vannata DEC – De La Rosa ITD – Wright-Barriault U2.5 PARLAY +42246 (0.24%) – .1u

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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