Timur Valiev ML -115 (53.49%) – 1u

These two have a fairly similar fight style, but I expect Timur to be the faster, stronger, and more dangerous.

Paul Craig ML +160 (38.46%) – 1.5u
Paul Craig ITD +275 (26.67%) – .25u

I think Nikita Krylov is one of the more overrated fighters in the division. People like to look at his record and see his losses are only to championship caliber fighters. But he is mostly effective when he is grappling, but he is sloppy. And sloppy grappling will not work with Paul Craig. I expect Krylov to get subbed, or get battered on his back.

Mike Grundy ML -190 (65.52%) – 2u
Mike Grundy ITD +285 (25.97%) – .5u

Makwan is most effective when he can grind and grapple his opponents. That will be next to impossible for him against a guy like Grundy. Grundy was a world class wrestler in England, and there is a high likelihood he is the one that controls the grappling.

Grundy will also be far more likely to be fresh late in the fight. The finish is under priced here. Wanted to bet 3rd round finish for Grundy, but keeping it simple.

Dan Hooker ML -105 (51.22%) – 1.5u

Ok, this fight is so so close. But I am taking Dans experience and size. I think he will be able to physically overwhelm Arnold, and will keep Arnold on his back foot and will be landing more strikes.

Tom Aspinall SUB +550 (15.38%) – .25u
Tom Aspinall TKO RD 1 +600 (14.29%) .25u
Alexander Volkov RD 3 +1200 (7.69%) .1u
Alexander Volkov RD 4 +1500 (6.25%) .1u
Alexander Volkov RD 5 +2200 (4.35%) .1u
Volkov vs Aspinall UNDER 4.5 -155 (60.78%) 3u

Ok, throwing some darts on this one.

Few ways I see this playing,
Tom is just too quick for Volkov, he is able to get inside early and lands the clean punch to take Volkov out.
Tom is unable to find that punch that lands him the early KO, they start trading punches, and Tom sneaks in a takedown and the sub play becomes a possibility (like the Arlovski fight)
Tom is unable to put Volkov away and starts to fade late, and Volkov takes over and puts Tom away.

Either way, I like the odds of this fight ending at some point. So main play is on the under 4.5 rounds at -155. With some darts to hopefully increase the pay out.

Topuria – Pimblett PARLAY -339 (77.22%) – 2u

Beginning of linking up some parlays.

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna PARLAY +109 (47.85%) – 3.5u

Main parlay play. Like these 4 favourites in their fights.

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna – Grundy – Valiev PARLAY +496 (16.78%) – 2u

Adding in two more of my favourites in the card into the parlay

Topuria – Pimblett – Nelson – McKenna – Grundy – Valiev – Craig – Hooker PARLAY +2938 (3.29%) – 1u

Parlaying the rest of the picks!

Nelson – Grundy – Valiev PARLAY +237 (29.67%) – 2u

Getting some parlay action away from some of the heavy favourites to hedge some potential craziness busting the parlays.

Craig ITD – Grundy ITD – Nelson ITD PARLAY +2000 (4.76%) – .25u

Taking the highest conviction/value props and parlaying them!

Valiev – Craig ITD – Grundy ITD – Nelson ITD – Pimblett RD 1 – Hooker DEC PARLAY +26087 (.38%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!