Azamat Murzakanov ML -190 (65.52%) – 2.5u

Azamat might be a serious threat at 205. He might be a little undersized, but he has a good first matchup in his UFC debut. He will be able to out grapple Tafon if he needs to, and he carries serious KO power. But I think they may stall each other out, and this favours Azamat

Guido Cannetti ML +126 (44.25%) – 1u
Guido Cannetti DEC +300 (25%) – .25u

Everyone is praising Moutinho for being able to take a whooping from Suga Sean. But getting battered is not usually a good thing. And he had similar struggles against regional competition. Playing the line here and betting on the UFC vet to grind out a decision.

Damon Jackson ML -115 (53.49%) – 1.5u

Taking Jacksons higher level experience and heavy grapple attack to get the job done here

Javid Basharat ML -148 (59.68%) – 3u
Javid Basharat ITD +165 (37.74%) – 1u

Javid has a really tough fight here. Trevin Jones is good. But I think Javid could make a big splash at 135. I am really excited about this guy. He looks like a serious athlete and is dangerous every where the fight goes. If Javid isn’t able to overwhelm him with superior skills early, I expect he will be able to wear him down and take him out late. Really looking forward to this one.

AJ Fletcher ML +168 (37.31%) – 1u
AJ Fletcher ITD +300 (25.00%) – .25u

AJ Fletcher has not fought the best competition, and there is a good chance he runs into someone who is too good and too experienced pretty early in his UFC career, but – he is a solid athlete and is very explosive. And he has enough skills to get himself to the UFC. I do not think Semelsberger will be able to establish his striking from a distance with Fletcher in his face and changing levels. I think Fletcher catches him faking a takedown, or wears him down and subs him.

Alex Pereira ML -190 (65.52%) – 3.5u
Alex Pereira ITD -150 (60.00%) – 1.5u
Alex Pereira TKO RD1 +165 (37.74%) – .25u

Ok, we gotta be careful here. This will most likely be two dudes who love to finish throwing down. And Bruno Silva will probably threaten level changes which will add to his ways to win.

But – this feels like a showcase fight for Alex Pereira. Both these guys are going to want to strike and, on paper, Alex Pereira has a large advantage. He was a Glory champ and one of the best kickboxers in the world! And, even when he did lose to other high level kickboxers, he was known for having a chin. Hard to imagine Bruno Silva will be able to catch him.

Terrance McKinney ML +135 (42.55%) – 3u
Terrance McKinney ITD +200 (33.33%) – .75u
Terrance McKinney SUB +425 (19.05%) – .25u

I think highly of Drew Dober, but I am surprised to see McKinney as the underdog here. McKinney is a terrible matchup for Dober. McKinney showed his high quality grappling skills in his last fight, and I expect him to do the same here against the striker Drew Dober.

Plus, McKinney is the younger fighter with the momentum. Happy to bet this line.

Sodiq Yusuff DEC +165 (37.74%) – .75u

I don’t love the ML line, I am gonna chalk up the favourites in the 3 final fights and play it that way.

So for this fight I am throwing a dart on Yusuff by decision. He has not shown he can take out UFC caliber fighters, and Caceres is tough to take out. But Sodiq could easily find Caceres’ chin and take him out. So small play.

Song Yadong RD 2 +450 (18.18%) – .25u
Song Yadong RD 3 +900 (10.00%) – .25u

We all know Marlon will be dangerous in the first round, and as the fight goes it will favour Song. So throwing small darts he takes Marlon out in either of the later rounds. Will have him in a chalk parlay

Magomed Ankalaev UNAM DEC +200 (33.33%) – .5u

I really didn’t like any of the lines for this fight. And it is hard to know what to expect from Santos. But Thiago has been very hesitant in his last few. Betting we see a clear win for Magomed, but not enough action for the fight to be finished.

We could see Magomed steamroll an over the hill fighter. But I don’t like betting on assumptions. Magomeds two most recent fights have gone to decision, so betting on that.

Yusuff – Song – Ankalaev PARLAY +115 (46.51%) – 2.5u

Large chalk bet final 3 fights of the event. I am considering this 2.5u bet my main way of playing the final 3 fights with heavy favourites. Coupled with my prop darts. Could pay off extra, or I could lose all. We will see!

Murzakanov – Basharat – Pereira – McKinney PARLAY +790 (11.24%) – .75u

My favourite “value” picks parlayed up.

Basharat ITD – Pereira ITD – McKinney ITD PARLAY +1225 (7.55%) – .25u

Small bet on highest conviction props.

Murzakanov – Cannetti – Jackson – Basharat – Fletcher –  Pereira – McKinney – Yusuff – Song – Ankalaev PARLAY +20980 (.47%) – .1u

A second long shot for this week! Taking all my picks and parlying them up.

Cannetti DEC – Basharat ITD – Fletcher ITD – Pereira ITD – McKinney ITD – Yusuff DEC PARLAY +51840 (.19%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!