Terrance McKinney ML -105 (51.22%) – 2.5u

This is a great matchup for Terrance McKinney and his career. He is building a reputation as a KO artist, but his background is wrestling. So matching him up with an experienced striker is a great next step. How can he hang on the feet? Can he last if the KO doesnt come? Will he change levels?

Lots of questions. But my money is on Terrance figuring it out. And he can wrestle if he needs to. Happy to bet him at basically even money.

Josiane Nunes ITD -120 (54.55%) – 2u
Josiane Nunes RD 1 +165 (37.74%) – .5u

Nunes is a bulldog. And has some serious power. And her opponent? Ramona Pascual.. Well –

She seems like a really cool person. She has a Ted Talk on Youtube! And she has been a pro since 2016. But she is accepting this fight on really short notice. And I am not sure she is even a true professional MMA fighter, let alone UFC caliber.

I think we might see a quick one here – I honestly kind of hope I’m wrong. Because this one might be ugly..

Zhu Rong ML +170 (37.04%) – 1u
Zhu Rong SUB +1000 (9.09%) – .25u

I was gonna bet even smaller on this one until Zhu Rong missed weight. And I know that might sound weird. But I was leaning Zhu Rong at these odds because I thought his heavy style would be a good counter to Ignacio. Zhu Rong would have big hard punches down the middle, and would lean on Ignacio. Chain wrestle and mix up strikes. More ways to win.

But now that I know he is literally heavy going into this fight, I added a bit of conviction.

Gregory Rodrigues SUB +275 (26.67%) – .5u

Ok so as the week went by, conviction in this pick slowly dwindled. I just can’t trust Rodrigues’ chin.

But – I will stick with my original assumption of what his best path to victory is. And throw a dart on the BJJ ace submitting the striker.

Joel Alvarez ML +175 (36.36%) – 1.5u
Joel Alvarez ITD +225 (28.17%) – .75u

Ok – so I can’t lie to my dozens of readers. Before I started publicly posting my bets, I faded Joel Alvarez hard. I really thought Thiago Moises was a bad matchup for him. That was a tough loss at ~-260.

So maybe I am just some Degenerate Mark chasing cash after the last guy I seen win..

But I think Joel Alvarez is a serious threat at 155. He is enormous. And he has some really clean and powerful striking. Plus he has 16 wins via submission!? Is Arman sure he wants to wrestle??

But Arman is so good too, it is hard to have too much conviction here. Arman might be the one who dictates where the fight takes place, and as the fight goes it will get harder for Joel to find the sub.

So be careful. I think we are all gonna have a second chance to bet on this fight one day anyways…

Misha Cirkunov ML -125 (55.56%) – 1.5u

I wish I could have more conviction in this pick. I don’t think Turman should have anything for Misha. But one thing I have learned in my years betting MMA, be careful with guys who haven’t won recently.

It’s like buying a falling stock. Are you sure you know why this isnt working? Tough recent stretch? Or are they about to go bankrupt..

I’m buying the dip on Misha Cirkunov. But I’m being careful.

Makhachev vs Green OVER 2.5 -105 (51.22%) – 2.5u
Islam Makhachev DEC +310 (24.39%) – .75u

I really like this bet.

Nearly 49% of Lightweight fights go the distance.
38% of Islam Makhachevs wins have come via decision (I’d also bet this number is more likely to go up over time).
46% of Bobby Greens fights have gone the distance. 78% of Bobby Greens UFC fights have gone the distance!

Islam is the rightful favourite here. But I am happy to bet that there is a 24% chance Islam Makhachev takes Bobby Green to a decision. Bobby is tough! I’d be surprised if Islam just steamrolls Bobby early. Think this one gets drawn out. Most my bet is on a simple over 2.5, gotta be responsible.

McKinney – Nunes – Cirkunov PARLAY +413 (19.49%) – .75u

A way of adding a bit more to a few of my favourite plays. I didn’t want to add Makhachev. Didn’t think the small change in odds was worth it.

McKinney – Nunes – Zhu Rong – Rodrigues – Alvarez – Cirkunov – Makhachev PARLAY +6716 (1.46%) – .25u

Parlaying up my picks. Bless.

McKinny ITD – Nunes RD 1 – Rodrigues SUB – Alvarez ITD –  Cirkunov ITD – Makhachev DEC PARLAY +93627 (.11%) – .1u

The long shot parlay for the week! Good luck!

These long shot parlays are definitely going to be a mainstay from now on btw…
They are fun!