Douglas Silva de Andrade ML +175 (36.36%) – 1.5u

Betting the line here. Douglas has fought the best in the world at 135, and despite being 36 years old, he is still in great shape and is very strong for the weight class. And he has only lost to the very best at 135. And there is no evidence that Moroz is a top 5 bantamweight, so if the books are going to give Douglas a 36% chance of winning this fight, I will happily take that bet.

Morozov could chain wrestle and grind Douglas against the cage and ride out a decision win. But Douglas will not be easy to hold, and is a competent grappler himself. When they are at distance I expect Douglas to really show the gap in their striking.

AJ Dobson ML -118 (54.13%) – 4u
AJ Dobson ITD +120 (45.45%) – 1.5u
AJ Dobson 1ST RD +300 (25%) – .25u

It is difficult to have strong conviction a fighter is going to win when they have never won in the UFC before, especially when their opponent does have a UFC win(s).

But I am happy to do it here – AJ Dobson looks like he could be an absolute monster, and I do not think his opponent, Jacob Malkoun, will have much to offer in the fight. Jacob won his last fight with a relentless takedown game against a bloated and out of shape opponent. And that could happen again, but I really doubt it.

I expect AJ to blitz and steamroll Malkoun, with little resistance.

Casey O’Neill ITD +180 (35.71%) – .75u

I have a ton of respect for Roxanne. But this is an absolutely terrible style matchup for her. Casey will be better and stronger where Roxanne wants this fight to take place, and I expect the ref to save Roxanne in her final fight while being hammered with punches in the mount.

Bobby Green ML -145 (59.18%) – 2u

Bobby Green is one of the most underrated fighters in what is probably the deepest division in the sport. He has stuck around in there with some of the worlds best.

Nasrat will want to land a big punch, but Bobby Green is really tough to catch, and even tougher to catch clean and take out. At the worst, I expect Bobby Green to out point fight Nasrat. Hopefully change levels and mix it up. At best, he lands a clean punch and takes him out.

Jared Cannonier ML -160 (61.54%) – 2.5u
Jared Cannonier ITD +400 (20%) – .25u

This is where we see Derek Brunson meet his limit in his climb to the top at 185. We will understand after this fight that there are clear tiers in this weight class.

Derek will have a tough time getting Jared down, and an even harder time keeping him down. And when Jared hits Brunson – because he is definitely going to hit him at some point, we will see the fight changing power that Jared carries.

Cannonier – O’Neill – Dobson PARLAY +267 (27.25%) – 1u

Taking my highest conviction picks and parlaying them up.

Was really tempted to throw Green in here, but that was getting too greedy.