Malcolm Gordon ML +240 (29.41%) – .5u

Bondar looks good, and he is my pick. But Bondar has not fought the competition Gordon has.
Bondar will want to take this to the ground, and Gordon will be able to hang with him there.
Gotta play the line here, Gordon has a better than 30% chance to win this.

Philip Rowe ML -140 (58.33%) – 2u

I expect Rowe to be the faster and more dangerous fighter. Quicker hands, better grappling. Like this bet.

Chidi Njokuani ML -105 (51.22%) – 2u

Chidi has fought some of the best fighters outside the UFC. Despite being the one making his UFC debut, I’d give him the experience advantage! This is also a favourable style matchup. Chidi will have many opportunities to display his superior striking. And at nearly 50/50 odds? I’ll take that.

Hakeem Dawodu ML -165 (62.26%) – 3u
Hakeem Dawodu TKO +340 (22.73%) – .75u

My biggest bet of the card.

I am really high on Hakeem. I think he has the skills to hang with the best in the world at his weight. He also has a very underrated track record, he started his pro MMA career in a high level organization. And his fights in the UFC have mostly come against really tough guys who don’t have a big name.

I see Trizano walking Hakeem down and stepping right into that nasty power Hakeem carries.

John Castañeda ITD +400 (20%) – .25u

My pick here is Miles Johns. I think he is the fighter to watch, I really do think he is underrated.

But the danger Castaneda presents is not being respected by these lines. So I gotta place a small bet.

Brendan Allen SUB +300 (25%) – .75u

I feel good about this bet. Can’t get overly crazy on prop bets. But Allen by sub seems to be a very plausible path to victory. Allen is known as a grappler, who just got KO’d his last time out, taking a fight on short notice. And Sam Alvey would definitely prefer this fight be on the feet. Allen getting this to the ground and using his grappling to finish this fight – apparently, only has a 25% chance of happening.

…..wanna bet!?

Carlston Harris TKO +650 (13.33%) – .25u
Under 2.5 rounds -170 (62.96%) – 2.5u

Shavkat is the one with the hype, and all the focus seems to be on his future. And rightfully so! He does look to be very good. But – he does get hit. And Harris has a nice winning streak of his own and some serious power. I could see Harris clipping Shavkat and putting him out.

Betting under 2.5 seems like an easy call. They both finish fights. When fighters tell you who they are, believe them.

Nick Maximov ML +155 (39.22%) – 2u
Nick Maximov ITD +340 (22.73%) – .5
Nick Maximov WIN IN RD 3 +1800 (5.26%) – .25

I am not that sold on Soriano. I think he can catch slow guys who think they are strikers. But Maximov will chain wrestle and wear Soriano down, leaving the opening for a late finish. Happy to take a small flier on him winning in the 3rd.

Sean Strickland ML -220 (68.75%) – 2.5u
Sean Strickland TKO +240 (29.41%) – 1u

Sean Strickland has fantastic TakeDown Defense, he had a 75% TDD against Kamaru! And has an 82% TDD overal in his career. I expect Jack, who has a 36% takedown success rate in the UFC, will not have an easy time taking Sean down. Then we will see the large gap that exists between their striking.

Jailton Almeida – Julian Erosa – Brendan Allen PARLAY -105 (51.22%) – 1u

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